What happens if Georgia loses to Texas in SEC championship game? CFP, NY6 Bowl scenarios explored

The SEC championship game between the Georgia Bulldogs and Texas Longhorns is set to take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday. Despite the chaos surrounding other conference championships, the Southeastern Conference title bout brings stability.

Unlike other matchups, where playoff hopes hinge on a win-or-go-home scenario, both Georgia and Texas seem poised for postseason appearances regardless of the outcome.

What happens if Texas beats Georgia?

Even if Georgia loses to Texas, its College Football Playoff spot seems secure. The Bulldogs would likely fall to seed in the 7-10 range, meaning they play a first-round game on the weekend of Dec. 20-21.

A defeat would leave Georgia with three quality losses but still three crucial wins. That would keep the Bulldogs ahead of teams like Penn State, whose resume lacks victories against big teams, but leaving them behind Ohio State.

If the Bulldogs lose, they could fall to the No. 8 seed, setting up a December 21 rematch against No. 9 Tennessee. A win would lead to a challenging second-round clash with No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl.

The CFP selection committee will aim to avoid rematches, so it’s improbable that Georgia would host Tennessee in the first round. Similarly, Ohio State would likely avoid hosting Indiana. Georgia would face a tougher path, possibly hosting a first-round playoff game in Athens or hitting the road, depending on the final seeding.

For teams like Arizona State, Clemson, Iowa State and UNLV, a conference championship loss means elimination from playoff contention. Boise State also faces this risk, though its situation is slightly more uncertain. SMU, sitting at No. 7, could also be vulnerable if it loses to Clemson in the ACC championship game.

The committee is likely to focus on determining the final playoff team should SMU lose. This would leave Alabama, SMU, and Miami as candidates for the last spot. Miami’s chances, however, appear slim under the current circumstances.

Who is favored to win Texas vs. Georgia?

The Longhorns are narrow favorites, with the latest odds from SportsLine consensus listing Texas as a 2.5-point favorite. The over/under for total points is set at 49.5, reflecting expectations for a competitive game.

According to ESPN's College Football Playoff Predictor, Georgia has a 98% chance of making the playoff, even if it loses on Saturday. Additionally, the Bulldogs hold a 63% likelihood of hosting a first-round playoff game despite a loss.

How many times has Georgia beat Texas?

The upcoming SEC championship game will mark the seventh meeting between Georgia Bulldogs (10-2, 6-2) and Texas Longhorns (11-1, 7-1). The Longhorns are leading 4-2 in the all-time series.

Their first encounter came in the 1949 Orange Bowl, where Texas emerged victorious with a 41-28 win. Georgia claimed its first victory in the series in the 1984 Cotton Bowl, a narrow 10-9 triumph. The teams met again in the 2019 Sugar Bowl, with Texas winning 28-21.

The most recent matchup between these two programs occurred earlier this season on Oct. 19, with Georgia defeating Texas 30-15. That victory marked the Bulldogs’ largest margin of victory in the series.

CFP and NY6 bowl matchup scenarios explained

The 2024 season introduces an expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, including all the former New Year’s Six bowls into the playoff structure. These games will host the quarterfinals and semifinals, which will determine the route for the national championship.

If Georgia loses to Texas and ends up with the lower seed, it will end up playing a first-round game on Dec. 20-21. If the Bulldogs win that first-round game, they will move on to play a New Year's Six bowl game.

The quarterfinals are scheduled for Dec. 31 and Jan. 1, taking place at the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl. The semifinals will take place on Jan. 9 and 10, hosted by the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl.

Bowl eligibility generally requires teams to secure six or more wins during the regular season. However, exceptions can be made to fill the bowl schedule. In cases where additional teams are needed, five-win programs may qualify based on their Academic Progress Rates.