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The Ohio State Buckeyes have their work cut out for them as the national title hopefuls face the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines in the last outing of their regular season. Whoever loses the game will not advance to the Big Ten championship game. Both teams have perfect records and are at the top of the Big Ten East standings.
If the Buckeyes advance, they will face Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes are currently at the top of the Big Ten West standings, with an overall record of 9-2 and a conference record of 6-2. Iowa has one of the worst offenses in the nation. It has also lost its starting quarterback, Cade McNamara.
The Hawkeyes' closest persecutors are Northwestern and Wisconsin, two schools with a 4-4 conference record and who lost to Iowa.
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What are the Ohio State Buckeyes' chances of making the CFP if they lose the Big Ten championship?
Even if it loses the Big Ten championship game, Ohio State has a fair chance of making the CFP. According to ESPN's CFP Predictor, the Buckeyes would still have a 70% chance of making the playoffs if they win against Michigan but lose against Iowa in the Big Ten title game. However, they would have only a 22% chance of winning that national title.
On the other hand, if they defeat Michigan and Iowa, their chances of making the CFP will be 99% and 35% of winning the national title.
However, if they lose against Michigan, they won't make the Big Ten championship, and their CFP seed chances drop to 32% and 9% of winning the national title.
Who would the Buckeyes play in the CFP if the season ended today?
Currently, the Buckeyes are ranked No. 2 in the CFP committee rankings. The No. 2 seed plays against the No. 3. With the latest rankings, Ohio State would play against No. 3 Michigan, and No. 1 Georgia would face No. 4 Florida State.
However, given that they'll face each other this weekend, it's almost impossible that Ohio State will face Michigan in the CFP.
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