What if Notre Dame beats Penn State? Closer look at Marcus Freeman's chances to make the CFP national championship

As they prepare to face Penn State in the Orange Bowl, a College Football Playoff semifinal, Notre Dame is on the brink of a historic opportunity.

The game, scheduled at 7:30 p.m. ET in Miami Gardens, Florida, is pivotal for both teams, especially for Notre Dame.

A win will secure a spot in the national championship game and bolster Marcus Freeman’s legacy as coach. In his third year, Freeman is chasing Notre Dame’s first national title since 1988.

The Fighting Irish (13-1) are dominating with an 11-game win streak since a surprise loss to Northern Illinois. They also registered an impressive 23-10 victory over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and a 27-17 win against Indiana in the first round of the playoffs.

Penn State (13-2), meanwhile, has quietly emerged as a strong contender. Despite being overshadowed in the Big Ten by powerhouses like Oregon and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions have demonstrated their mettle with commanding playoff victories over SMU (38-10) and Boise State (31-14).

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Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Notre Dame enters the game as a 2.5-point favorite, with the total points line set at 44.5.

The moneyline odds favor Notre Dame at -134, while Penn State sits at +112. These narrow margins highlight the evenly matched nature of the contest and the expectation of a closely fought battle.

The Fighting Irish lead the nation with 31 forced turnovers, including two crucial ones against Georgia. A strip-sack by senior RJ Oben and a fumble recovery by Junior Tuihalamaka were game-changers in the Sugar Bowl.

Meanwhile, Penn State’s defense has also excelled, forcing seven turnovers in two CFP games. The turnover battle could be the deciding factor in the upcoming game.

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Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman eyes CFP title game

Notre Dame has been dominant at the line of scrimmage, a critical aspect of its wins over Indiana and Georgia. Despite injuries to key players like Rylie Mills, the Fighting Irish have relied on their depth and defensive prowess, led by Xavier Watts in the secondary.

Offensively, quarterback Riley Leonard’s dual-threat ability has been a game-changer. While his passing stats against Georgia were modest, his ability to extend plays with his legs remains an asset.

Meanwhile, Penn State holds a strong run defense, which held Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty to just 3.5 yards per carry in the Fiesta Bowl.

Offensively, tight end Tyler Warren has emerged as a key weapon for quarterback Drew Allar, especially with Abdul Carter’s status uncertain due to injury.

The game will likely be won or lost in the trenches. Notre Dame’s trio of running backs, Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and Gi’Bran Payne will need to establish the ground game against Penn State’s eighth-ranked run defense.