The Alabama Crimson Tide have a low chance of making the College Football Playoff, even if they beat the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC championship game. 'Bama's early season defeat to Texas has proven to be a costly one for the southern school's hopes of another national title.
Out of 15 experts consulted by ESPN, none of them selected Nick Saban's Crimson Tide as a potential College Football Playoff seed. The manner in which they barely escaped defeat at the Iron Bowl at the hands of the Auburn Tigers will certainly not help them raise their stock with the CFP committee.
How can Alabama make the playoffs?
Alabama can make the playoffs with a win against Georgia in the SEC championship game. If they do not manage to win against Georgia, however, Alabama will have to edge out Texas to book their playoff spot.
A Texas loss in the Big 12 championship will help Alabama's case greatly. However, if the Longhorns win and Alabama lose, their playoff chances will be close to nothing.
Could Alabama advance if they beat Georgia?
Currently, the ESPN playoff predictor gives them a 9% chance of making the CFP. Even if they win the SEC championship, their chances are below 50%. A victory over Georgia would give them a 32% chance of making the playoff, according to ESPN's predictor.
Nick Saban's side's hopes are pinned on a series of unlikely upsets in the conference's championship games. The main problem for Alabama is that currently, there are as many teams with a perfect record in the top ten as seeds for the playoffs.
Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State ended the regular season with a 12-0 record. The Crimson Tide would need to defeat Georgia and hope that at least one of the others lose their conference championship game.
An Oregon upset over Washington, paired with a Bama victory over Georgia, would make things all the more confusing, given that the Ducks and the Crimson Tide are in a similar situation. Alabama would also benefit from a Texas defeat in the Big 12 championship, given that the Longhorns defeated them and share the same record of 11-1.
In the end, this is a decision that's up to the CFP committee.
Alabama beats Auburn in the nick of time
It looked like the Auburn Tigers would win this year's Iron Bowl, having led 24-20 with 32 seconds left on the clock. Quarterback Jalen Milroe thought otherwise, turning the game around with a hail-mary pass of 31 yards to end the game 27-24 in Alabama's favor.
Speaking to CBS Sports, Saban said:
"Believe it or not, we work on that [Milroe's touchdown pass], it was just a great throw by Jalen and a great catch by Isaiah [Bond]. I mean, we work on it, but you’re just throwing it up for grabs, really, and we came down with it."
He'll be grateful that they worked on it, as Milroe potentially saved their CFP chances from dying in Week 13.
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