Will Colorado make the College Football Playoff? Exploring Buffaloes playoff chances in 2024

The No. 18-ranked Colorado Buffaloes picked up a 49-24 win over the Utah Utes on Saturday, moving them into a tie with BYU at the top of the Big 12 standings. This will significantly improve their chances of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game.

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What are the Colorado Buffaloes' playoff chances?

After Week 12, Colorado's best chance to make the playoffs is by winning the Big 12 Championship. An at-large berth is highly unlikely, based on their current standing in the AP Top 25 Poll.

According to ESPN's playoff predictor, the Buffaloes have a 36% chance of making the playoffs. If Colorado wins both of its remaining regular-season games against Kansas and Oklahoma State as analysts expect, it will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.

If the Buffaloes win the Big 12 Championship, their chances of making the playoffs jump to 98%. However, if they lose, their playoff hopes would be dashed, with a less than 1% chance of making the postseason. So, it appears that winning the Big 12 is the only realistic path for them to make the playoffs.

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College football playoff scenarios for Colorado in 2024

If Colorado wins its final two games, they will be guaranteed a play in the Big 12 Championship Game. Currently, they are projected to face BYU in the title game. However, there are scenarios in which they could play Arizona State or Iowa State.

If they win against any of those teams, they would likely make the playoffs as the third or fourth-highest-ranked conference champion. If ranked fourth, they will play the winner of the fifth vs. 12th seed matchup. If ranked third, they will play the winner of the sixth vs. 11th-seed matchup.

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Who would Colorado play in the playoffs if the season ended today?

As things stand, the Colorado Buffaloes would not make the playoffs with an at-large berth. They would need to rely on winning the Big 12 Championship to make the playoffs.

If Colorado wins the Big 12, they would be the lowest-ranked conference champion and not earn a bye. In that case, they would play the 12th seed, which would currently be Alabama.