Will Texas A&M make the College Football Playoff? Exploring Aggies playoff chances in 2024

The No. 15-ranked Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) are coming off a 38-3 win over New Mexico State (2-8), bouncing back from a 44-20 loss to No. 23-ranked South Carolina (5-3) the previous week. The Aggies have had a largely successful season, defeating teams like Missouri and LSU along the way.

After a season-opening 23-13 loss to No. 8-ranked Notre Dame, the Aggies steadily moved up the AP Top 25 Poll. However, their loss to South Carolina dropped them several spots, making it harder to make the playoffs.

What are Texas A&M's playoff chances?

According to ESPN's playoff predictor tool, Texas A&M has a 13% chance of making the playoffs after Week 12. Despite being tied for second in the SEC with Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss, the Aggies are not favored to reach the SEC Championship Game.

The biggest issue for the Aggies is their season finale against No. 3-ranked Texas. Without that win, it is almost impossible for them to contend for a playoff spot. Additionally, without a win over Texas, the Aggies likely will not move up the rankings enough to earn an at-large playoff berth.

College Football Playoff scenarios for Texas A&M

While anything is possible when voting is involved, there is only one realistic scenario for the Aggies to make the playoffs. They need to defeat the Texas Longhorns. A win would likely earn them a spot in the SEC Championship Game.

If they win the SEC Championship, they make the playoffs. However, if they lose the game, they could still make the playoffs with an at-large berth, if voters credit them for defeating a top-five team.

Who would Texas A&M play in the playoffs if the season ended today?

If the season ended today, Texas A&M would not make the playoffs. However, depending on tiebreakers, they could have the opportunity to make the playoffs by winning the SEC Championship, but that is not a guarantee.

If the Aggies make the playoffs by winning the SEC, they would likely earn a bye through the first round as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. If they make the playoffs with an at-large berth, they will likely be one of the last teams to qualify. In that case, they would play the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which would likely be Boise State.