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Ant-Man 3 is about to kick off Phase 5, and all that Marvel and Disney could hope for is the continuation of their success after Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.
With the popularity that the Marvel Cinematic Universe holds, a strong opening is always expected from every MCU outing, since it is a continuous tale and every new film is connected to the larger picture, thereby prompting people to show up in large numbers.
Similar is the case with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, as the early box office projections based on advanced ticket sales are really high, hinting at international earnings worth $280 million.
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Opening weekend projections for Ant-Man 3
With a reported budget of $200 million, big things are expected out of Quantumania. And so far, the film seems to be holding strong, as early estimates state that it will have an opening weekend of $120 million domestically and $280 million worldwide (per Comicbook.com).
This puts Ant-Man 3 along the lines of the last 3 successful MCU openings, as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever had a domestic opening of $181 million, Thor: Love and Thunder had a $144 million opening, and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness opened with $185 million.
Sure, the numbers aren’t as high as the other three films, but it must be taken into account that Ant-Man isn’t as big of a name yet as Black Panther, Thor, and Doctor Strange. So this sort of result should be highly appreciated, considering it is the biggest opening for the Ant-Man franchise so far.
Comparing it to the last two Ant-Man movies, the first one raked in $519 million globally and had a domestic opening of $57 million in its first weekend. Ant-Man and the Wasp brought in $622 million worldwide, with an opening weekend of $75 million. Now that Quantumania’s estimated numbers are over the $120 million range, it shows how Ant-Man has grown over the years.
Kang is also proving to be Quantumania’s biggest strength, as people are eager to see how Marvel is setting him up as the big bad of the Multiverse Saga. One thing that’s common with most reactions and reviews is that everyone is praising Jonathan Majors’ performance. So, Kang the Conqueror could be the driving factor in ticket sales.
Why Quantumania's reviews might be worrisome
Considering that the reviews are mediocre (with 53% on Rotten Tomatoes), word of mouth will play a huge role in further ticket sales. So, if the audience agrees with the critics, then we could see a major drop in Ant-Man 3’s box office numbers in the second weekend. This has become the usual norm for MCU films, as even Thor 4 suffered a steep drop of 67.7%, making only $46 million on its 2nd weekend.
But if there is a divide between the critics and the fans, then Quantumania could hold strong in its second weekend too, especially since there’s no real competition from February 24-26. Things will get even tougher from there on as March will be launching 6 major movies: Creed 3, Scream 6, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, John Wick Chapter 4, Dungeons & Dragons, and 65.
So, taking the incoming competition of March and the number of bad reviews into consideration, the prediction for Quantumania’s total box office run is between $650 to $750 million.
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania opens on February 17.
