Will Avatar 2 break even?

Since Avatar 2's release, James Cameron and his movie have been all the buzz in Hollywood. Whether it's regarding the time Cameron took to put out the sequel to the 2009 film, his greeting fans outside the WGA building, or fans wondering if and when the movie will arrive on a streaming platform, the film has been constantly in the news.

Amid all the talk about the movie, one thing that remains to be seen is whether or not Avatar 2 will be able to surpass its predecessor in terms of money made at the box office. From what the numbers have shown so far, it might be possible that Avatar 2 will be able to break even.

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How much money does Avatar 2 need to make to break even?

Trinity Jo-Li Bliss in Avatar: The Way of Water (Image via IMDb)

According to Cameron himself, the film needs to make more than $2 billion at the box office just to break even. In an interview with GQ, he said:

"You have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in the history. That's your threshold. That's your break even!"

The first Avatar movie sits atop the list of the highest-grossing movies of all time, with a staggering $2.9 billion at the box office worldwide. Considering the success of the previous movie plus the cost of making Avatar 2, the movie must make at least $2.7 billion at the box office to make sure it sits among the top three highest-grossing movies of all time.

As for numbers, Avengers: Endgame sits at the second spot with $2.79 billion at the box office, while the third spot is taken by Cameron's Titanic with $2.2 billion in earnings worldwide.

Meanwhile, so far, Avatar 2 has made $601 million internationally and $855.4 million globally, which makes the movie the fifth highest-grossing movie of all time in a span of just 10 days after its theatrical release.

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Will Avatar 2 be able to take the highest-grossing movie of all time spot?

Sigourney Weaver in Avatar: The Way of Water (Image via IMDb)

Looking at the current state, Avatar: The Way of Water seems to be doing rather well for itself, irrespective of all the unfavorable circumstances. Amid extreme weather conditions that have affected theater turnout, Cameron's Avatar sequel has taken the lead at the Christmas box office.

However, there's one bump that has affected Avatar 2's box office performance internationally, which is the emergence of COVID-19 in China. Despite being much anticipated in the country and Disney expecting a good slice of revenue generation from the country, the new wave of COVID has closed theaters, affecting the film's overall revenue.

Nevertheless, the movie still needs to beat the likes of Avengers: Endgame and Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens. While we're not sure if Avatar fans are as active as the Star Wars and Marvel fandom, the numbers speak otherwise.

In 2009, a crucial reason behind Avatar's success was its USP, which gave viewers a visual treat through the 3D spectacle. Around 80% of Avatar's revenue came from 3D shows of the film. While the 3D experience might have been uncommon over a decade ago, the craze has since declined. This can be corroborated by the declining revenue generated by 3D movies in recent times.

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Avatar 2 reportedly cost a staggering $250 million to produce, its predecessor is already a smash hit and the highest grossing film of all time.

While the question of whether the film will be able to break even might still be up for debate for some movie buffs, we believe Avatar: The Way of Water has the potential to break even in the coming weeks. Lastly, the film might even take the number one spot if it continues with the same stride at the box office.