Will Avatar 2 surpass Avengers: Endgame box office numbers? Explained

James Cameron made history with Avatar, but can Avatar 2 repeat that kind of performance? Will the sequel surpass Avengers: Endgame at the box office this time? These are some of the biggest questions that fans have about this film.

Avatar became a worldwide phenomenon. It revolutionized cinema and was a one-of-a-kind movie, reaching $2.789 billion worldwide (with a few successful re-releases). Then came Avengers: Endgame, which had a buildup of over 10 years and became another worldwide phenomenon. Its massive hype train allowed it to go past Avatar in three months.

Avengers Endgame and Avatar (Image via Marvel/Disney)

Avengers: Endgame made $2.797 billion and dethroned Avatar only for a short while. James Cameron’s Avatar got a couple more re-releases after that and made a significant amount of money with those, ultimately ending up with a total of $2.922 billion. Now, we can be sure that this total is just unbeatable. But how does Avatar: The Way of Water compare with the top two?

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Avatar 2’s box office run so far

The Way of Water opened at the domestic box office with a healthy $134 million, and since many people have waited a long time to watch it on premium screens, it played well across the entire week. It held strong in the second Holiday weekend as well.

Jake's family in Avatar: The Way of Water (Image via Disney)

Avatar 2 pulled in $56 million from December 23 to 25, which looks like a bad 58% drop, but we have to count this as a four-day weekend as a huge chunk of its domestic earnings came from Monday, December 26 ($26 million). So, Avatar 2 made $82 million from December 23-26, reaching $279 million domestically.

But the real money for this film lies in the international market, as it exceeded $601 million over the weekend. So overall, Avatar: The Way of Water has made $881 million already. It will definitely go past $1 billion next week, but does it have a chance to beat its Avengers: Endgame or even its predecessor?

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Will Avatar 2 surpass Avengers: Endgame?

Avengers: Endgame vs. Avatar: The Way of Water (Image via Marvel/Disney)

Avatar 2 has had an impressive run at the box office so far. And since no real competition is coming in the next month, it will continue to do well. But that won’t be enough for it to take down Avengers: Endgame or even come close to the $2 billion mark.

Sure, Avatar 2 is a much better movie compared to the original, but it isn’t a revolutionary movie anymore. It comes 13 years after the original, so the hype for this one was middling. People will be hyped for Avatar 4 or 5 if the next one keeps its quality intact and builds upon the story. But The Way of Water will not be as successful as Endgame or even the likes of Infinity War and No Way Home.

The market in 2022 is very different from 2009. The theaters still suffer from the pandemic’s repercussions and are competing with streamers. Not to mention that Avatar 2 will also open on Digital HD and eventually on streaming after its 90-day theatrical window. So, it will not get a bunch of re-releases like the original.

Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water (Image via Sportskeeda)

However, since the international market is performing well for The Way of Water, it has a solid chance to beat Top Gun: Maverick ($1.488 billion) and become the highest-grossing movie of 2022.

In fact, it can even beat Furious 7 ($1.515 billion) and The Avengers ($1.518 billion) and take the 8th highest-grossing movie spot globally. But beating The Lion King ($1.663 billion), Jurassic World ($1.671 billion), and Spider-Man: No Way Home ($1.917 billion) would be very tricky.

That being said, anything above $1.5 billion would still be a win for Avatar 2 because it had a production budget of $460 million. With that cost, it needed $1 billion to break even. Numbers above $1.5 billion would make the film very profitable and give Disney the confidence to go all in on Avatar 4 & 5, which are yet to be shot.