Asia Cup: Who's stronger - India or Pakistan?

The Asia Cup is about to begin in a few days in the UAE. The much-awaited match-up between India and Pakistan is on September 19th in Dubai. This is the first time these two teams are meeting after the Champions Trophy final in June 2017. In that contest, Pakistan upset the favourites India in a comprehensive fashion.

But the playing conditions for the Asia Cup in the UAE will be completely different from what the teams experienced in England. The pitches will be dry and batting friendly, there will likely be no help for seam and swing bowlers, dew will play a major factor, the contribution of spinners will be critical, and hot and humid atmospheric conditions will test the players' fitness levels.

The UAE is Pakistan's adopted home. They have played all their international games, for a better part of ten years, there. So, theoretically, they are more familiar with the playing conditions. However, their ODI record in the UAE is not very impressive. Moreover, India should be comfortable with the conditions as well since the pitches and weather in the UAE are not too different from India's home conditions. In terms of crowd support, both teams should expect an equally enthusiastic level of support, given a thriving Indian and Pakistani population in the UAE.

India has just completed its tour of England and will arrive in the UAE shortly. Pakistan, meanwhile, has been practising in Lahore in the lead up to the Asia Cup. The squads for both teams have been announced. One notable omission in India's squad is the name of Virat Kohli. India has decided to rest him for this tournament.

Here's the probable XI for both the teams:

India's Probable XI: Rohit Sharma (C), Shikar Dhawan (VC), KL Rahul, Ambati Rayudu, K. Jadhav, MS Dhoni, H. Pandya, B. Kumar, K. Yadav, Y. Chahal, J. Bumrah.

Pakistan's Probable XI: F. Zaman, I. Ul-Haq, B. Azam, A. Ali, S. Ahmed (C), S. Malik, F. Ashraf, S. Khan, Hassan Ali, M. Amir, U. Khan

Now, let's compare the teams in terms of their batting, bowling, and fielding to determine which team matches up better.

I. Batting

Rohit!

I.a) Openers

Despite the absence of Virat Kohli, India's batting is formidable, and particularly so, in conditions prevalent in the UAE. India's openers Rohit and Shikar are vastly experienced duo with a very impressive record. Their counterparts, in the Pakistan team, are Fakhar Zaman and Imam-ul-Haq. Both these openers, while relatively inexperienced, are in good form. The experience of Rohit and Dhawan is the difference, though, and India certainly has the better pair.

I.b) Upper Middle Order (UMO)

Captain Sarfraz!

Pakistan's upper middle order has both star power and experience in it. Babbar Azam, who is touted to be the next great batsman out of Pakistan, has certainly lived up to that expectation and remains the biggest threat to India. Giving him company is Asif Ali, a newcomer who's in good form, and the captain, Sarfraz Ahmed, an experienced, level-headed veteran.

India's UMO, on the other hand, lacks a superstar and a reliable veteran. KL Rahul is in good form and is certainly capable of taking the fight to the opponents. But Rayudu and Jadhav, while more experienced than Rahul, have not been regulars in the side and despite their good form, remain the weak links in India's middle order. So, Pakistan has the edge in the UMO.

I.c) Lower Middle Order (LMO)

Dhoni- simply unmatched!

India's LMO is led by MS Dhoni. His last experience and unmatched ability to finish games give India the upper hand over Pakistan in the LMO. The emergence and success of Hardik Pandya have helped India further strengthen the LMO. On the other hand, Pakistan's LMO is led by another veteran- Shoaib Malik. Shoaib, along with two relatively new but effective all-rounders give Pakistan the ability to bat deep.

II. Bowling

II a) Fast Bowlers

Mohammad Amir: The Leader of the Pack!

The bowling strategies of the two teams are philosophically different. Pakistan will rely on its battery of four medium-fast bowlers- Amir, Usman, Hassan Ali, and Faheem Ashraf- to do the damage. Conversely, India will deploy a three-man medium-fast pace attack comprising of Bumrah, B. Kumar, and H. Pandya. Bumrah and Bhuvneshwar have become one of the most effective end-over bowlers in world cricket.

However, their performance against Pakistan in England in the Champions Trophy was not particularly memorable. On the other hand, the Pakistan battery of bowlers ran through the Indian batting line-up in England. So, on the basis of the recent historical head-to-head record, Pakistan has the edge in the fast bowling department.

However, it's important to understand that the batting friendly wickets in the UAE, the prospect of the adverse impact of the dew, and the hot and humid atmospheric game-time conditions will significantly impede the effectiveness of fast bowlers.

II b) Spinners

Yadav & Chahal!

India's bowling strength lies with its spinners. Their wrist spinners- Kuldeep Yadav and Yuzvendra Chahal- have been on a sensational tear since their introduction into the team after the Champions Trophy loss. They have been particularly lethal in sub-continent like conditions and, surprisingly, have been very effective in non-subcontinental conditions as well. Pakistan has never faced them before and that's a huge plus for India.

As for Pakistan, they will be relying on Shadab Khan and Shoaib Malik in the spin department. However, they are not expected to give the Indian batsmen any cause for concern. India's spin duo is certainly a much bigger threat to Pakistan. Given the spin-friendly conditions in the UAE, they will give India a decisive advantage.

III. Fielding

Both India and Pakistan have significantly improved their fielding. India is a slightly better ground fielding team. However, both teams have been inconsistent with their catching efforts. So, the team who catches better on the day will have an advantage. On paper, no team has a clear advantage in fielding.

Thus, an analysis, of the two teams' batting, bowling, and fielding, suggests that, on all but two metrics, India have a stronger unit than Pakistan. Whether that will translate into a win completely depends on how they execute their plans on the field. Pakistan, certainly, is equipped to pull off yet another upset. But the odds on that are long!

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