Australia in danger of losing number one Test ranking as battle for the top heats up

Following yet another abject performance in Asia, Australia are in serious danger of relinquishing their number one spot in the ICC Test rankings. Depending on the results in other ongoing series, all of India, England and Pakistan have an opportunity to reach the summit.

Currently, the Aussies have 118 rating points and are followed by India with 112, Pakistan with 111 and England with 108. By virtue of their series loss in Sri Lanka, they are poised to lose at least seven rating points according to the ICC Test rankings predictor.

After a remarkable turnaround from the hosts saw them succumb to a 106-run loss in Pallekele, Steve Smith’s side were mauled in the second Test in Galle and consequently lost the Warne-Muralitharan Trophy.

Even if they manage to pull off a consolation victory in the 3rd Test at Colombo (SSC), the difference in their present ranking with Sri Lanka will see them lose vital points. As a result, Australia now have to rely on other results going their way if they are to hold on to the top spot.

With England and Pakistan engaged in a fierce tussle (*at the moment level 1-1), a series victory for the visitors should propel them to the summit for the first time since rankings were introduced in June 2003.

However, if Australia do not win the third Test, a drawn series would be enough for Pakistan’s cause. Continuing that scenario, England move to the pinnacle as long as they win the series by any margin.

In case, the Aussies emerge victorious in Colombo, England will require a 3-1 series win while a drawn affair translates to status quo. But, India are the team which could have a major say in the entire scheme of things.

Even though the stalemate in Jamaica pushed them back, Virat Kohli’s team still have a massive chance to climb to the number one spot. For that to happen, they need to win both the remaining matches and take the series 3-0 against West Indies in the Caribbean.

In such a scenario, they will leapfrog Australia irrespective of what the latter do in the third Test. But, India will then want England to either win or draw the series as a Pakistan victory by any margin should come in their way.

Meanwhile, New Zealand’s African safari (Zimbabwe followed by South Africa) would not have any bearing on the battle for the number one spot in the Test rankings which are updated at the end of every Test series.

As per the ICC, ratings are calculated by dividing the points scored by the match/series total. A draw between a higher and lower rated team will slightly benefit the rating of the lower rated team at the expense of the higher rated team. A draw between two similarly rated teams will leave both their ratings unchanged and the home/away factor is not taken into consideration at any stage.

Australia have spent a total of 82 months at the top in three different stints while South Africa’s cumulative reign of 42 months also came in three stretches. India have stayed at number one for 22 months in 2 terms and England’s time came once from August 2011 to August 2012.

Applying the same formula to retrospective matches, ICC had also released a list containing the teams which climbed to the summit since January 1952. Apart from the four aforementioned teams, West Indies also held pole position in six separate stints even as Pakistan climbed to the top only once from August to September in 1988.

(*As of August 6)