BGT 2024-25: Are Melbourne and Sydney really India's best chances?

A deadlock of 1-1 with two matches to go is a fitting scoreline for what has been a riveting Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) 2024-25 thus far. Some would argue that the weather robbed Australia of a shot at taking a 2-1 lead or better for the first time over India since 2014 but a day out of the biggest day of the cricketing calendar, it is wise to keep ifs and buts aside.

India did have something to take out of the Gabba Test but the fact of the matter is that they have been completely outplayed in December so far. Perth seems a long time ago (literally so for it's been a month since that triumph), but a 1-1 scoreline with Tests in Melbourne and Sydney to follow is something most Indian fans would have accepted before the series.

A large reason stems from how these two venues have come closer to replicating familiar home conditions than any other Australian ground. Perth, Brisbane, and the pink-ball Test in Adelaide would have felt alien in their own ways for India, and in that regard, the venues for the last two Tests could come as a relief...

...or do they?

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What is it about Melbourne and Sydney that is supposed to favor India?

The theory is that these two venues suit India better than most others. Historically, India have loved playing in Melbourne, having won four Tests - more than at any other Australian ground - and with a draw and two wins across their last three matches here.

As for Sydney, they've drawn their last three Tests at this ground and were denied a shot at an innings win by the weather in 2018-19 after enforcing the follow-on. But what's favored India more at these particular venues are conditions coming closest to mirroring batting-friendly decks at home before spin takes over - a theme over many decades until the early 2010s, as far as Indian conditions are concerned.

But back in the day, India were blessed with outstanding players of spin in those decades gone by where a draw in Australia was considered a huge outcome. They did not boast of a world-beating bowling attack that could win them Test matches overseas and were often dependent on their batters to eliminate one result from the equation.

It's not to say that the current crop is poor against spin but a turning ball does put them in a spot of bother with the prospect of Nathan Lyon in the opposition. India’s own attack has lacked incision outside Jasprit Bumrah, which then puts the onus on the batters to set the game up - something that looks distant at this point from a practical perspective unless conditions are truly batting-friendly.

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Recent trends at the MCG

A Boxing Day Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) is a festive celebration of sport and the grind of Test cricket.

Except, the grind was a wee bit too hard to take for England and Australia in 2017, with a grand total of 24 wickets falling across the five days of cricket. A dull draw brought the pitch under intense scrutiny and it was pretty much the same the following year when India were in town.

Much like the ongoing series, the scoreline was deadlocked at 1-1 in 2018-19. India won a crucial toss, batted, and battered Australia's bowlers to dust for nearly two days. With absolutely no life in the pitch, a draw was imminent. But then, Bumrah happened, as he saved the curators the blushes with an all-time great spell of 6/33 to force a result.

A conscious effort has since been made by head curator Matthew Page to spice up the drop-in surface at the MCG. What's been a constant in Tests at the venue since 2019 is a good layer of grass that has offered the bowlers a decent bit. So much so that the only instance of a captain opting to bat first at the toss was in 2020 when the coin fell Tim Paine's way. Interestingly enough, that's the only Test Australia have lost at the G since 2019. Their opponents? You guessed it.

The Ajinkya Rahane-led Indian team pulled off a remarkable comeback on the back of the freakish 36 all out in Adelaide where they nicked everything.

Scores in Tests at the MCG since the surface was spiced up in 2019-20.

The average first-innings score at the MCG since 2019-20 when green grass became the norm is 271, with the second-innings number reading 316. The catch, however, is that there is no certain trend as such, with first-innings totals varying from 185 to 467. If you’re precise with the ball and the overhead conditions also come into the picture like they have quite often in this period, bowling first certainly works.

But does it mean bowling first is the only way to go? The 2019 Test featuring New Zealand and the one last year involving Pakistan suggest otherwise. Australia lost the toss on both occasions but managed to post totals of 467 and 318, with the eventual margin of victory standing at 247 and 79 runs, respectively.

The amount of grass on the deck is worth looking into as well. From 2019 through to the famous Ashes Test of 2021 where Scott Boland ripped England to shreds, there was a minimum of 10 millimeters of grass on the deck on the opening morning.

The story's been different since 2022 though, with the surface wearing just six millimeters of grass at toss time. Batting has been far from impossible in any of these Tests but certainly easier in the last couple of years on the Boxing Day.

South Africa were bowled out for 189 after being inserted to bat in 2022 but not before they self-destructed from 56/1 to 58/4 close to Lunch.

Usman Khawaja and David Warner put on a 91-run opening stand against Pakistan a year ago. The challenge for Khawaja and to-be-debutant Sam Konstas is far tougher this time around, with the small matter of Bumrah coming after them. But despite the low first-innings totals in the Sheffield Shield and the A match between the two countries at this venue, run-scoring is possible with mature application against the new ball.

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Bat first for a change now?

The MCG has hosted three first-class matches so far in the 2024-25 summer - two Sheffield Shield games and one between Australia A and India A. None of those affairs were high-scoring, as an average first-innings score of 202 and a corresponding second-innings number of 161 indicate. A host of those first 20 wickets fell well inside the first two days. And once again, the captain winning the toss opted to field first in each of those matches.

First and second innings scores at the MCG in the 2024-25 summer thus far.

Yet, a factor that could tilt the toss in favor of batting first is the weather. It's expected to be scorching hot on Boxing Day and you surely want to be a batter on a day like that while hoping that the sun bakes the pitch sooner than later.

With the reinforced seam on the Kookaburra ball, plus the threat of world-class new ball bowlers on either side, seeing out that new ball is textbook in any case. And while both batting lineups have been susceptible to a collapse, Australia haven’t been reckless as much as they’ve been, well, Bumrah-ed. The same can’t be said about the visitors though.

The writer is no pitch expert but two days out of the Test, the surface had a green look to it. Except, it didn’t look as green as the ones rolled out during the Shield games. With Page suggesting that they've stumbled upon a formula over the last couple of years, it could be no more than 6mm of grass on the morning of the Test. It could be a surface that will keep the seamers interested again, yet one where you can score runs.

That’s the ideal surface at this point for Australia. Their bowlers can take the pitch out of the equation on most days with the reinforced seam on the ball, plus their precision engineers in Boland and skipper Pat Cummins putting them in the mix to chip away at a brittle Indian lineup. Australia's batting lineup is none the better, with an over-reliance on Travis Head, but that's the very catch that holds good for India's bowlers.

With so much hinging on Jasprit Bumrah's shoulders, can his colleagues stand up?

The numbers are out there for everyone to see. Yet, it is worth reiterating them as they show just why India are so Bumrah-reliant. He has bagged 21 wickets this series at less than 11 apiece while the rest of his colleagues have accounted for 26. Put into perspective the lack of consistent runs from batters not named KL Rahul and it's a damning indictment of one of the great carry jobs the sport has seen.

Which begs the question - does India have an attack that can pick up 20 wickets on any surface? You'd have to think that's a no at this point. Gone are the glory days of 2018-19 and 2020-21 where a relentless pack would hunt down any opposition batting unit in sight. The first of those seasons might have coincided with the peak of the pace pandemic but this series has been largely bowler-friendly in itself and yet, India have been all about Bumrah. If not for an all-time great spell in Perth, it could have come apart on Day 2 had Australia survived the opening day with enough wickets in hand.

Wait, no iffing and butting. The truth, though, is that India's current attack needs regular spice in the deck to bag 20 wickets in quick time. Not since the Oval Test of 2021 - where India had to catch up with the game after conceding a decent first innings lead - have their bowlers shown enough to take an unhelpful surface out of the equation.

The days of 'bhaad mein gaya pitch' seem a thing of the past at this point. But with an early wicket increasing the threat of exposing Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, and Rohit Sharma to the new ball - each of whom has had a problem against it this series - there's too much hinging on Rahul and Yashasvi Jaiswal to replicate their heroics to tire the Aussie attack out. This is even as fresh reports of Rohit moving back up top have surfaced.

In short, the current state of India's batting lineup needs a batting-friendly deck and the bowling unit outside Bumrah needs the surface to be more bowler-conducive.

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Is the SCG any better for India’s BGT 2024-25 chances?

A traditionally batting-friendly deck, Tests at the Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) have been affected by rain far too often in the last few years. So much so that since 2019, only two Tests have produced results, with four others ending in a draw. Unlike at the MCG, captains have always opted to bat first upon winning the toss in Sydney in this period.

Scores in Tests at the SCG since 2019-20.

The average first-innings total here in five Tests since 2019-20 is considerably higher too — 399 — while the average second-innings score for this period reads 266. It’s as much a bat-first venue as any on the planet notwithstanding the threat of rain. With the cracks opening up and spin taking a more prominent role as the Test goes along, one can understand why India might enjoy this near subcontinent nature after a point.

Except, this team has had its frailties against spin sticking out like a sore thumb, as New Zealand showed not too long ago. Should India pick both Ravindra Jadeja and Washington Sundar, they will need the necessary first-innings cushion in order to weave their magic later on.

It's as ominous a sign as any then that the non-Bumrah part of the side needs to step up and desperately so. The first-innings performance at both the MCG and the SCG could decide their chances of retaining the BGT and in turn, qualifying for the WTC final.

Ideally, India's best chance at this point is on a deck that is more bowler-friendly, for it bridges the gap between the two attacks - much like what happened on the opening day in Perth. Both batting lineups are fragile anyway and it's the Aussie pace factory as a collective that has proven to be the point of difference, besides Head.

By no means is it to suggest that India's bowlers aren't good enough. But the fact remains that optimal bowling conditions played a huge part in them taking the ascendancy despite scoring just 150 in the first dig in the opening Test.

Who is to say that it cannot happen in Melbourne, at least with the first and second innings playing out pretty even in most of the recent matches here? If the surface aids the bowlers more for the first day and a bit, it certainly puts the visitors in the contest.

KL Rahul - front and center of India's chances with the bat in BGT 2024-25.

One thing that India have aced so far is the first task - winning the toss. If that continues on a sunny morning and their batters get into the game, they would force Australia to play catch up, thereby bettering the chances of upping the pressure with the ball and getting Head and the rest of the middle-order to the crease early.

But it's an 'if' at this point. So much needs to come together and since it hasn't yet, a hopeful fan may want to believe that they are due for that complete performance at the most critical juncture of the series.

This Indian team haven't given up - the much-talked-about celebrations after avoiding the follow-on in Brisbane were as clear a sign as any of a team that is determined to complete the three-peat. But there's enough to believe that the theory of Melbourne and Sydney favoring India more doesn't really hold good at this point if the venues put Australia's batters into the contest.

It's on India to debunk this counter theory and reiterate the notion that the first part of the series was the more challenging bit. And that, incidentally, will boil down to whether they win the first part of their innings or not with the bat and the ball.