Breaking the code of the game (BCG) matrix of T20 Leagues

We MBA’s (and as consultants) have habits to use jargons such as ‘strategy’, ‘competitive advantage’, ‘value for money’ etc. However, for once I thought I would try to do some justice to these jargons.

The aim of this article is also to prove them wrong who think I waste my time whole day thinking about a newbie Murugan Ashwin over India’s ongoing state elections, about Chris Gayle’s exorbitant price over India’s real estate inflation, about an economical uncapped transfer over my remaining monthly disposable income.

On a different note, however, I strongly believe this article will turn out to be immensely ‘strategic’ and ‘competitive’ (these are not misplaced jargons here, I am sure) for those who spend as much time and hold with as much importance the one and only thing happening on planet earth now: the IPL fantasy league.

Fantasy cricket is way more than just fantasy and cricket. For many, it’s life and death, for some it’s trying their luck and for some it’s the addiction to the game.

In light of such immense significance and criticality of this league, my take is that, we are not far from those days when massive R&D budgets will be allocated and aggressive marketing and advertisements will be carried out to capture the huge fantasy market by start-ups, to decode the success mantras by the fantasy consultants, and to gain traffic by sponsors. In this context, this article is probably among the very first ones in the series to present a quality Thought Leadership in its form.

Like one of the iconic and ubiquitous frameworks for modern businesses, the BCG (Also named after a consulting group) Matrix of this article is an attempt to convert (I am sure not ‘subvert’) the framework to a disruptive and eye-opening BCG (Breaking the Code of the Game) matrix of the IPL fantasy leagues (for that matter any other fantasy cricket leagues).

How to use the article:

As William Edward Deming once said, “In GOD we trust, all others must bring data”. I attempt to write this article with rigour in data analysis and fact findings. Unlike the other articles, this article is not aimed at spoon feeding fantasy players with the selection of particular players match by match.

The objective of this write-up is to educate and train the fantasy players about the science and logic of the game and the numbers associated to it. It attempts to give a broad framework and strategy that the fantasy players may adopt when they participate in various leagues.

If followed rationally and logically, I am sure fantasy players would benefit to a great extent and would enjoy a competitive advantage over their peers.

Who am I?

For those who are thinking who am I, well, my credentials as a Business Consultant (those of you who are reading this, there’s nothing more important business than this) are as below:

1. Among the top 5% of the fantasy players in CWC 2015
2. 3-year veteran in IPL fantasy
3. Among the first 1000 in WT20I-2016 fantasy league

In the top 1000

The fantasy players’ categorisation:

Like the stalwarts of the businesses, I too believe that the universe of the IPL T20 Players can be put into just four buckets. Well if not all, some would probably still sneak out. But don’t worry, those who sneak out are not entirely different species but remain in the contour of the matrix but are marginal or borderline cases.

It’s a two-dimensional matrix with four cells. The two dimensions are the Costs of Acquisition on X-axis or the horizontal axis and Impact/Scoring opportunities on Y or vertical axis.

Cost of acquisition:

If you think ‘The Cost of Acquisition’ is only the budget of a player, you are wrong. There is more than just the budget which attributes to ‘Costs’. The true ‘Cost of Acquisition’ for a player logically encompasses a broader set of parameters. It includes the following:

1. The budget of the player: This is the absolute budget that is assigned to each player in any fantasy games. It ideally ranges from 70K to 105K in most fantasy games.
2. Indian or an overseas player: In IPL fantasy games, one has to marshal his/her resources within the constraints of 4-overseas players only, an Indian Player of budget value ‘X’ is not the same to an overseas player of budget value ‘X’ with say same scoring potentials. In the matrix, hence, the Cost of Acquisition is way higher for an overseas player than an Indian player (with same budget value and scoring potentials). One can, as a thumb rule, treat an overseas player as 1.5 times more costly than a capped Indian player of same budget value. (for every 4 overseas players in your team, you can have as many as 6 capped Indian players, if you use one as free uncapped sub. Hence, the ratio=6/4=1.5)
3. Uncapped Indian player: In line with the logic above, one can now easily understand that the cost of acquisition of an Indian uncapped player is way less. This is because many fantasy games offer one uncapped Indian player each match as ‘Free’ and last their budget value too is generally low.

Note: A high ‘Cost of Acquisition’ would mean players are either ‘Cash Cows’ or ‘Dogs’. Now as only limited few can be ‘Cash Cows’, chances are that many high budget players would be pushed as ‘Dogs’.

Scoring and impact opportunities:

Like the ‘Cost of Acquisition’, this one too isn't just what you accept it on its face value. It is just more than the amount of points a player earns. The true ‘Scoring and Impact Opportunities’ includes the following:

1. The absolute points the players earn: This is plain and simple. This, however, is just one of the four contributors ‘The Scoring and Impact Opportunities’. It is the points you earn when your player scores runs, takes wickets, becomes Man of the Match, earns bonus points etc.
2. Their performance consistency and impact: Now this is not as simple. This is where the concept of Return on Investment (ROI) comes in. How likely a player is to perform consistently is what the essence here is. It encompasses issues such as if the player gets the chance to bat a sufficient number of deliveries or bowl their full quota consistently if they are too risky bets as power players etc. This is where the openers, the front line bowlers become more impactful than others.
3. All-rounders’ advantage: All fantasy games are designed to force the players to manage teams juggling multiple constraints. The biggest of all constraints is to have the right combination of Batters, Bowlers, and Wicket Keepers. As All-rounders’ are players with ambidextrous capabilities who can both bat and bowl, they will have high an impact.
4. Regular picks or not: This is relatively simpler. None want to pick an ailing Lasith Malinga, or a player (Pawan Negi, Quinton de Kock, Carlos Brathwaite, Imran Tahir) from an experimental Delhi Daredevils squad, or a foreign player who would leave mid-way to fulfill national commitments. At the end of the day, no matter what the point earning potential of a player is, what is of prime importance is if it gives you value for your picks. This is where the regular picks peep ahead of the others.

Note: High ‘Scoring and Impact Opportunities’ would mean players are either ‘Stars’ or ‘Cash Cows’. Now as one operates with budget constraints, it will be key imperatives to know your ‘Stars’ well and pick them in advance.

Let us know see how the BCG matrix for the T20 Universe (Keeping IPL in mind) of players may look like. The different colour coded matrix are is explained below.

• 

  The BCG matrix for the IPL

  Starting from the Cash Cows, I will analyse and discuss in detail the patterns and stats related to each set of players and will come up with some strategies to deploy the Stars, the Question Marks and the Dogs respectively in subsequent sections/articles.

The Cash Cows:

From the above ‘Fantasy Players Categorisation’, we now know the concepts of ‘Cash Cows’. Before you think different, let me remind, they are still human players and not cattle class animals.

Now let us look at some reference data points from the recently concluded ICC WT20I to further develop our understandings of ‘Cash Cows’ better. This is not an exhaustive list though, it charts out the ‘Cash Cows’ of the tournament who have played >=5 matches.

The Cash Cows

Watch out for the below-mentioned patterns and statistics from this set of players:

1. They are either the top order batsmen (Openers or 1-downers) or classy all-rounders (3 of them bat in the top 4, 4 of them are All-rounders)
2. They are the table toppers when it comes to earning points (The per match average points earned across all these players are in the range from 65 to 110 (approx.)
3. They earn healthy amount of ‘Bonus Points’ because of their great ‘Man of Match’ potentials (On Average, 2 MoM in every 5 matches played)
4. By current forms, they are mostly West Indians than from any other single country (The Russell’s, the Bravo’s and the Gayle’s)

Let us now decode the ‘Cash Cows’ part of the matrix and see how to use them the best possible ways.

What to do with the ‘Cash Cows’:

1. They are the ones to have on your fantasy team but they might eat up your budget significantly. Hence, make sure you don’t unnecessarily load too many of them at one time, rather ensure you have one/two of them in every match from the two warring teams
2. Many of them are quality foreign players, hence, even if you want you cannot take more than four at a time. So you must rotate your ‘Cash Cows’ judiciously, retain the Indian ‘Cash Cows’ for as many matches as possible, axe the Overseas ‘Cash Cows’ only when you don’t see upcoming matches in the 3-4 match horizon.
3. For Indian ‘Cash Cows’, make sure you retain them in your teams with minimum disruptions. For example, a Virat Kohli, a Rohit Sharma, an Ajinkya Rahane should inevitably be there always in your teams. Yes, almost always, even when their teams are not playing. In business terms, it is equivalent to ‘Lean Principle’. It means you go ‘Lean’ when it comes to transferring them across matches throughout the tournament. The less number of times you transfer them, the better you are poised.
4. You know how important the selection of ‘Power Players’ is. One’s approach to select Power Players should be such that one maximizes returns with minimum risks. Be rest assured, the ‘Cash Cows’ are most consistent/reliable/low risk than any other set of players and hence, they should be your first bets as bowling/batting Power Players or Captains.

The IPL probables:

We know that the IPL-2016 is in mid-way. Going by the characteristics, definitions and analysis above, let us see who the potential Cash Cows are for this year’s IPL. Do not be surprised with the data and statistics because of its amazing similarity and patterns (same names, all-rounders, openers etc.) when you compare it with the above ICC WT20I stats.

You may please note that this is not an exhaustive list of Cash Cows but some from the top. You may apply the above Do’s and Don’ts with these Cash Cows as discussed earlier.

The players who can make a difference

Note:The points earned by the listed players in the above table are till the end of match 33, DD Vs RPSG.

It is sport and ‘cricket is a game of glorious uncertainties’, hence, few players may outperform and underperform as the tournament progresses. However, the standard deviation or percentage error will be expected to be minimal.

Being aware of the length of this article, I plan to pick the ‘Stars’, ‘Question Marks’ and ‘Dogs’ explaining them in details with the list of IPL probable in the respective categories in subsequent articles.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and they do not necessarily represent the views of Sportskeeda.