Champions Trophy 2025 Group B semifinal qualification scenarios: How can Australia, South Africa and Afghanistan qualify?

Afghanistan beat England by eight runs in match number eight of the 2025 Champions Trophy at the Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore on Wednesday, February 26. With the win, Afghanistan kept alive their hopes of progressing to the semifinals from Group B. England, on the other hand, were knocked out after two losses in two matches. They went down to Australia in their first match of the ICC event.

Afghanistan won the toss and opted to bat first against England. The batting side lost three early wickets, but Ibrahim Zadran (177 off 146) played a brilliant knock, registering the highest individual score in the Champions Trophy. His innings lifted the team to 325-7. Joe Root (120 off 111) batted well in the chase, but Azmatullah Omarzai's 5-58 saw England getting bowled out for 317 in 49.5 overs.

While England have been knocked out of the 2025 Champions Trophy following their loss on Wednesday, Afghanistan, Australia and South Africa still remain in contention for a place in the semifinals. On that note, let's take a look at the 2025 Champions Trophy Group B semifinal qualification scenarios.

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South Africa (3 points, NRR: +2.140)

South Africa are right now on top of the 2025 Champions Trophy points table in Group B. They thumped Afghanistan by 107 runs in their opening match of the ICC event at the National Stadium in Karachi. Batting first, they put up 315-6 on the board in their 50 overs and then bowled out Afghanistan for 208 in 43.3 overs.

There was plenty of hype over the South Africa-Australia clash in Rawalpindi. But, the same was abandoned due to rain, without the toss being held. Both the teams were awarded one point each for the washout. The Proteas will now take on England in their last Group B match of the 2025 Champions Trophy at the National Stadium in Karachi on March 1.

Before that, if Australia beat Afghanistan, South Africa will automatically qualify for the semifinals. In such a scenario, Afghanistan will stay on two points and will be knocked out. The Aussies and the Proteas will then progress to the next round.

In case, Afghanistan pull off a win over Australia, South Africa need to beat England to qualify for the semifinals of the 2025 Champions Trophy without any permutations and combinations. In the event of South Africa losing to England, they can still qualify for the semifinals. For that, they need to ensure that they do not lose by a huge margin, so that their net run rate doesn't go below Australia's.

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Australia (3 points, NRR: +0.475)

Australia are currently in second position in the 2025 Champions Trophy Group B points table. They began their campaign in the tournament with a five-wicket win over England in Lahore. Australia's second match against South Africa in Rawalpindi was washed out due to rain without the toss being held.

The Aussies will take on a confident Afghanistan in their last group match at the Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore on Friday, February 28. A win against the Asian team will take Australia's points tally to five and confirm their qualification for the semifinals. Along with the Aussies, South Africa will also qualify in this scenario, irrespective of the result of their last match against England.

On the other hand, in case Australia go down to Afghanistan, they will need South Africa to lose against England by a massive margin, so that the Proteas' net run rate goes below that of the Aussies. If Australia lose to Afghanistan and South Africa beat England, the Aussies will be knocked out of the Champions Trophy.

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Afghanistan (2 points, NRR: -0.990)

It would be fair to say that, despite their triumph over England, Afghanistan have the toughest task of all three teams to ensure qualification for the 2025 Champions Trophy semifinals. Before their eight-run win over England, Afghanistan went down to South Africa by 107 runs in Karachi. Their last match in Group B will be against Australia at the Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore on Friday, February 28.

If Afghanistan beat Australia, they will qualify for the semifinals of the Champions Trophy. In case they lose to the Aussies, Afghanistan will be knocked out. In such a scenario, Australia and South Africa will progress from Group B.