England vs West Indies - Who won the bigger Test upset?

The ardent lovers of Test cricket got treated to a couple of rivetting finishes featuring India, England, Australia, and the West Indies on a Super Sunday on January 28.

A pair of Day 4's saw England upstage India in the first of five Tests, while the West Indies breached Australia's fortress and handed them a surprising loss at the Gabba.

The former saw the English overcome a 190-run first-innings deficit with innovative batting and spirited bowling performances to produce a 28-run victory over India. Meanwhile, the West Indies went toe to toe with the mighty Aussies throughout the day-night encounter in Brisbane to come out on top by eight runs.

Both outings went down to the wire and saw two newcomers, Shamar Joseph, and Tom Hartley, lead their teams to victories with seven-wicket hauls in the final innings.

Although the heavily fancied side suffered a shocking defeat in both cases, the debate over the last few hours has centered around which of the dual classics was a more monumental upset.

Considering the historic and earth-shattering nature of the two outcomes, various factors deserve to be looked at and analyzed to come up with a conclusion.

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#1 Which is harder - Dethroning India in Hyderabad or Australia at the Gabba?

India v England - 1st Test Match: Day Four

India and Australia are two of the proudest Test nations in the world, with home records second to none. Therefore, it is no surprise that both teams were reeling under the shock of their respective defeats to England and the West Indies.

However, a closer look at the numbers makes defeating India in their backyard a substantially more colossal achievement than Australia at home. For starters, India was undefeated in Tests in Hyderabad, winning all five games until the England clash.

Meanwhile, Australia's fortress, Gabba, was recently breached by India in the 2020-21 Border Gavaskar Trophy. Despite a sensational overall record, the hosts had lost nine previous times in 65 games at the venue.

Broadening the purview further, beating India at home has generally been substantially harder than doing the same to Australia. The Asian giants have lost only one home Test series since 2010 against England in 2012-13.

Yet, the Aussies have suffered several series defeats in that time to South Africa twice, England, and India. Thus, the evidence is startling that an opposition winning a Test in India is a taller order than doing so down under.

Advantage: England

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#2 More improbable result - England or the West Indies producing an upset?

Australia v West Indies - Men's 2nd Test: Day 4

The other factor to consider is the strength of the two teams that upset their more fancied opponents.

While England struggled in their previous two tours to India, suffering 1-3 and 0-4 series defeats, they were the last to dethrone the Asian side in their backyard a decade back. They also won the first Test of the Indian tour in their latest visit in 2020-21.

However, it is chalk and cheese when we break down the West Indies-Australia Tests, particularly Down Under. Before the Gabble miracle, the Caribbean side hadn't won a single Test in Australia since the 1996-97 tour.

Even overall, Australia hasn't lost a Test match against the West Indies since the 2003 series in the Caribbean.

Additionally, England's recent form in Tests since the Brendon McCullum-Ben Stokes association has been nothing short of incredible. They have won 13 of their last 18 Tests coming into the India series, including a 3-0 whitewash of Pakistan in their den.

Yet, it is quite the opposite for the West Indies in Test cricket, with the side losing their previous two Test series against India and South Africa. While England are third in the ICC Test rankings, the Caribbean side are languishing at eighth.

All of these make a West Indian away Test win over Australia a more unlikely result than England's against India.

Advantage: West Indies

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#3 Which result saw a bigger shift in momentum and had the greater consequence?

Aside from the records and trends, the turn of events in a Test match and the consequence of the outcome in the series weigh heavily on determining the bigger of the two upset results.

While things turned more drastic in the India-England Test, the result of the Brisbane classic had far more significance. The West Indies-Australia encounter was evenly poised from start to finish, with neither team being considerably ahead of the other at any stage of the match.

There were stages where the visitors had their noses in front when the Aussies were 54/5 in response to their 311 in the first innings. The reverse was also true when the hosts were 113/2 in their run chase of 216.

Yet, the game never reached a stage where the result appeared to be a foregone conclusion. But that wasn't the case in the India-England game, as the hosts captured a massive 190-run first-innings lead, with most experts and fans already looking ahead to the second Test.

Thus, the remarkable turnaround scripted by Stokes and company in their batting and bowling second innings stunned cricket lovers.

However, if we consider both results, it is crystal clear that the Gabba Test holds far greater significance compared to the Hyderabad outings.

England have still not achieved their ultimate goal in the grand scheme of things, with four Tests remaining. Moreover, they could still suffer a similar fate to their previous tour when they went 1-0 up only to come crashing down and suffer a 1-3 series defeat.

Instead, the West Indies ended their long-time series losing streak against Australia by drawing level with the win at Brisbane. The last time they even drew a Test series against the Aussies was in 1998-99, and we go much further until the 1992/93 tour to find out when they escaped a series defeat down under.

Advantage: Tie

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In conclusion, each parameter mentioned above skews the upsets in one or the other direction. As the saying "Beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder" goes, picking between the results hinges on the specific individual's preference based on the most significant and relevant factor.