ICC Champions Trophy 2013: Group overview and predictions

After an IPL season that was marred by spot-fixing controversy, international cricket is back, with England & Wales hosting the 2013 ICC Champions Trophy, which marks the last time that the competition is being played. It will be replaced by the World Test Championship by 2017 as the game’s governing body ICC looks to have a world championship for each of its 3 formats. The tournament has, however, always craved for the attention that its illustrious cousin, the ICC World Cup receives and the arrival of World T20 in 2007 proved to be the final nail in its coffin. It became painfully obvious that it would either have to be scrapped or renovated completely to evoke spectators’ interest. Sadly that was not to be and now we have the competition being played for one last time, set to be replaced by the Test Championship in 2017.

Here, I will be making some predictions for the 2013 ICC Champions Trophy.

The tournament is already under way. Group B is also being called the “Group of Death”, as it is made up of current world champions and co-winners of the event in 2002, India; incumbent World T20 champions and 2004 winners West Indies; world’s numero uno Test team and inaugural champions in 1998, South Africa and last, but not the least, the enigmatic and ever-so-unpredictable, Pakistan.

The tournament opener saw India overcoming a stiff challenge from a Dale Steyn-less South Africa and West Indies limping to victory in a low-scoring encounter against Pakistan the very next day. This group is very hard to predict as all 4 teams, particularly Pakistan, are capable of beating the others on their day. However, with South Africa already without the experienced Graeme Smith and Jacques Kallis and with Morne Morkel being ruled out and possibly Dale Steyn joining him as well, the prospects for the Proteas look very grim. There is also the “C-word” that has always haunted them and for all their dominance in Tests, they haven’t been as dominant in ODIs. So, I don’t see them moving past the group stage.

West Indies experienced a resurgence of sorts by winning the World T20 in 2012. However their one-day form has flattered to deceive as men from the Caribbean were whitewashed 5-0 by Australia in January. So, in spite of the presence of proven match winners like Chris Gayle, Kieron Pollard, Dwayne Bravo and Sunil Narine, I don’t see them moving beyond the league phase. This leaves us with the arch-rivals, India and Pakistan. Despite the spot fixing and betting controversy back home, the young Team India has what it takes to win the competition and with a cool head like MS Dhoni at the helm, the Men in Blue have the mettle to bring the trophy home.

Pakistan, on the other hand, remain as mercurial as ever. They can fall like a pack of cards or bring their A-game on any given day, and with a 100% record in Champions Trophy against India, one would underestimate them at their own peril. The Men in Green, for a change, enter the competition without any controversy (don’t be shocked if they are in some kind of mess by tomorrow!) and that makes them even more dangerous. Also, the last time they met in a bilateral series, Pakistan won 2-1 in India. No wonder then, the June 15 clash between them is the most anticipated match of the tournament and may well prove to be a game changer.

So, my semifinalists from Group B are India and Pakistan, with India being group winners and Pakistan finishing as runners-up.

As of this writing, hosts England are playing in Group A against their arch-rivals, the fallen giants Australia at Edgbaston with New Zealand facing Sri Lanka next day. This group is, in my humble opinion, easier to predict. England, despite all their recent dominance in one-dayers at home, have not been able to establish themselves as a force to reckon with in the 50-over game. They also have a history of losing to minnows like Ireland and Netherlands in ICC events and come into their opener on the back of a 2-1 home loss against New Zealand. They are the second best Test team in the world behind South Africa, have the advantage of home conditions, have a pretty settled playing XI and in their last one-day series against Australia, ran out 4-0 winners at home. But despite all this, it is hard to see England making it past the group stage. There is something about their one-day game that does not let them be serious contenders at ICC tournaments and I expect things to remain the same.

And now, my personal favourites, two-time defending champions, Australia. Ah, how the mighty have fallen! From being undisputed kings of world cricket to their present state, the once mighty Aussies have experienced changes in their fortunes. Entering the tournament on the back of a 4-0 Test humiliation in India and the infamous “Homework-Gate”, the men from Down Under were thrashed by the same opponents by 243 runs in their warm-up game in a run-up to the event. And with captain Michael Clarke possibly ruled out with his old back injury, the onus is now on George Bailey to rally his wards to glory. On current form, it is hard to see that happening. However, the Aussies always reserve their best for last and only a fool will make a mistake to take them lightly. Their strength is to play as a team and if Shane Watson can replicate the form that saw him winning the MVP crown at the IPL, it will be hard to stop the Kangaroos from defending their crown and winning it for the 3rd time. At this point, I do see them making it to at least the semifinals.

Then there are their rivals from across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand. The Kiwis, despite their low ranking, have always been tough one-day competitors and have the habit of punching above their weight in ICC tournaments, as they did by winning this event in 2000. They have just defeated hosts England and with Martin Guptill in sparkling form, the Kiwis will definitely progress to the knock-out rounds. On the other hand, Sri Lanka, the co-winners as hosts in 2002, have also made a habit of reaching the final of ICC tournaments and faltering at the final hurdle. However, their recent one-day form is nothing to be proud of and most of their seasoned campaigners, the likes of Dilshan, Jayawardene and Sangakkara suffered from poor form in the recently concluded IPL. Despite this, they cannot be taken lightly and have the potential to surprise one and all. However, they don’t really look like setting the world on fire.

Therefore, from Group A, I have Australia and New Zealand qualifying for the semifinals as group winners and runners-up respectively.

From here on, it’s anybody’s game as any of the top 4 could go all the way. With India possibly playing New Zealand and Australia meeting Pakistan in their respective semifinals, I’ll put my money on the Men in Blue and the Aussies progressing to the summit clash. Here, either of the 2 could march to glory.

Cricket is a game of uncertainties, as proved by Netherlands and Ireland, who defeated England in World T20 2009 and World Cup in 2011, respectively. Ireland also knocked Pakistan out of the World Cup in 2007, sending everyone into frenzy. It is this uncertainty that makes cricket such a beautiful game (although this nickname is reserved for football).

My predictions can be wrong, as I am not an astrologer. Neither do I have a “Paul-the octopus” to help me in my predictions. All 8 teams are fully capable of winning this competition. This is the age of Twenty20 and many predicted the death of ODIs in near future. But the mega success of the 2011 World Cup changed that notion. As cricket fans, we can just hope that this final Champions Trophy firmly confirms that the 50-over game is here to stay. We just want to enjoy a thrilling competition and hope that whoever wins it, does it in style and gives a fitting sign-off to this event.

So, let the game start and may the best team win.