India or Australia - which team will feel more confident at the end of Day 2 of BGT 2024-25 5th Test?

Team India and Australia have gone back and forth for two thrilling days in the fifth and final Test at the Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG). Fortunes fluctuated from one side to the other several times with the match and ultimately the series still hanging in the balance.

Trailing 1-2 in the best-of-five affair, Jasprit Bumrah won the toss and elected to bat first on an unusually greenish Sydney track. India posted only 185 in their first innings, leading many to question their decision to bat first.

However, an inspired bowling performance on Day 2 helped them bowl Australia out for only 181. With the Test match a near one-inning shootout, the visitors stumbled their way to 141/6 in the second innings to hold an overall lead of 145 at the close of play on Day 2.

Barring any weather interruptions, Day 3 will likely be the finale to what has been an enthralling series between the two powerhouse sides. A win for Australia would mean a 3-1 series victory with the Border-Gavaskar Trophy finally in their hand for the first time since 2017.

An Indian triumph would see the series end in a 2-2 tie, with the visitors retaining the Border-Gavaskar Trophy yet again. With all to play for and so much on the line, fan debates on which team has its nose in front after the second day are at an all-time high.

Here, we look at certain key factors to conclude which of India or Australia holds the advantage as things stand.

#1 Match and series situation

Australia v India - Men's 5th Test Match: Day 2 - Source: Getty

If the SCG pitch for the ongoing Test is anything to go by, a score of around 180 in an innings is about par. After India and Australia scored 185 and 181 in their respective first innings, the former is on track for a similar total at 141/6 in the second innings.

Yet, the visitors still have two relatively well-set all-rounders in Ravindra Jadeja and Washington Sundar and the final target for Australia could be anything between 150 and 250 solely based on this partnership.

The worrying signs for Australia stem from their poor second innings totals on lesser challenging pitches thus far in the series.

Scores of 238, 89/7 and 234 in three second innings (non-D/N games) are a clear indication that anything even over 200 would worry Australia. The hosts' other concern would be watching India stumble to 141/6 despite an otherworldly counter-attack by Rishabh Pant, who scored 61 off 33 deliveries.

Nevertheless, the third day is often the best to bat on in typical Australian conditions and Pat Cummins will hope such a trend continues as they look to seal a Test series win against India after over a decade.

Advantage: Neutral

#2 SCG history

Australia v India - Men's 5th Test Match: Day 1 - Source: Getty

As different as the surface for the ongoing Test is from the usual Sydney track, it is worth looking at the history of run-chases in the venue. It would be safe to assume Australia will likely chase a target of over 150 and under 250, given the current situation of the contest.

With that assumption, history shows that in the 13 instances of a side chasing a fourth-innings score between 150 and 200, seven have triumphed and only four have suffered defeats, with the other two being draws.

Australia, in particular, have enjoyed chasing targets in this range at the SCG, winning five out of eight with two losses and a draw.

However, things get tricky should the target be above 200 as only twice in 11 attempts has a score between 200 and 250 been successfully chased down, with eight losses and a draw.

In fact, only six times has a target of over 200 been chased down in 49 such instances in Tests at the SCG, with 32 ending in defeats and 11 being draws. The numbers are similar for Australia as they have won only twice in nine run-chases between 200 and 250 in Sydney.

If anything, the pitch for the ongoing encounter is more challenging for batting than most of the earlier Tests at the venue. Hence, it is safe to say that India will be the favorites to register a thrilling win should they add another 30 to 40 runs on Day 3.

Advantage: India

#3 The 'Bumrah' factor

It is hard to ignore the Jasprit Bumrah factor hovering around the outcome of the ongoing Sydney Test. The champion pacer left the field midway through India's bowling innings on Day 2 and went for a scan.

Unfortunately for India, the results seem to indicate a back spasm, placing his participation for the rest of the Test in doubt.

The gap between Bumrah and the other Indian seamers has been a major talking point throughout the series. He is leading all bowlers with 32 wickets at an average of 13.06 in this series.

For context, India's second leading wicket-taker, Mohammed Siraj has bagged 19 scalps at an average of almost 30.

With Bumrah, one can almost confirm figures in the range of 5/65 on Day 3, going by his series numbers. Should a target in the range of 180 to 200 be left for Australia to chase, the other bowlers have to only pick up five wickets for approximately 100 runs in that case.

Yet, his absence changes things and Australia will feel a pace attack of Siraj, Prasidh Krishna and Nitish Kumar Reddy might be there for the taking if the target is below 200.

Advantage: India with Bumrah and Australia minus Bumrah

Final Verdict

While it is hard to predict India's final second-innings total, one can safely assume a target in the range of 180 to 200 for Australia. Should the case, India might have the slight upper hand, especially if Bumrah is fully fit to bowl.

Yet, his absence will almost certainly tilt the balance of power in Australia's favor, barring a situation where India set them an unlikely target upwards of 200.

Prediction: India to win by the barest of margins