India or Australia - Which team is the favorite to win 2025 Champions Trophy?

Another ICC tournament and yet again, India and Australia stand out from the rest to be considered favorites. In the modern era, the two powerhouses always find a way to be among the cream of the crop, whether it is men's cricket, women's cricket, or even at the youth level, irrespective of the circumstances and the situation. That is the kind of aura they carry.

Slotted into different groups, India and Australia have to overcome different sorts of challenges to make it to the knockout stage. In Group A, the Men in Blue have an in-form New Zealand and arch-rivals Pakistan as their biggest obstacles.

Australia's Group B members England and South Africa are battling poor form, but fortunes can quickly turn in an ecosystem of a tournament. Unpredictable elements like Bangladesh and Afghanistan are also present to hamper the heavyweights' path towards the title.

The last time ICC held a 50-over event, it all boiled down to India and Australia in the final as the Men in Yellow walked away with the 2023 World Cup. With the ODI format making a return at the biggest stage, there could be a chance that they face off yet again for the coveted trophy.

#1 India and Australia are both wounded, but their vital signs keep ticking

The common plaguing theme for India and Australia in the build-up to the Champions Trophy has been the bowling unit. The Men in Yellow will be without their pace-trio of Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, and Josh Hazlewood. India, on the other hand, will miss Jaspit Bumrah's services for the ICC event.

Australia have compiled a bowling attack from scratch, while India have made some bold calls by including an undercooked Mohammed Shami and a rookie pacer in Harshit Rana. However, both sides have relief from their spin bowling unit and the reliable batting department.

While the woes of both sides are of the same nature, it cannot be disputed that Australia have their woes compounded. Uncertainty in the top order and a lack of balance, along with the absence of Marcus Stoinis and Mitchell Marsh, are a couple of additional issues that India do not have to concern themselves with.

#2 Their current form could not be more different from each other

India had to fulfill game time and work out their combinations all in the space of three ODIs against England, and to their credit, they did a relatively good job. The series allowed India to get a clear idea regarding their first-choice playing XI and helped several players return to form and find the rhythm.

The Men in Blue thrashed England 3-0 in the ODI series to get some valuable momentum under their belt. Almost all batters were among the runs while the bowlers also got into the act to mark their presence.

Australia had a similar opportunity in the form of a two-match ODI series against Sri Lanka, who are not even participating in the Champions Trophy. The Men in Yellow's playing XI, largely constituting makeshift members, were handed a rude awakening call in the form of a series whitewash.

The batters struggled against spin, which is a concern even though they will be handed mostly flat decks in Pakistan. The inexperienced bowling unit had their moments, especially with the new ball, but failed to produce sustained pressure. Zampa's poor returns in spin-friendly conditions were also surprising, which is a notable aspect since Australia's hopes hinge on the leg-spinner's returns in the middle overs.

#3 Australia's aura and big-match ability need to work overtime to thwart India's well-oiled machine

There is a reason why Australia are considered one of the favorites despite their crippling crisis, and that is their ability to turn up when it matters. Luckily that trait has not been confined to just the high-profile players but is deeply embedded in the Australian DNA and their way of functioning. Many paid the price for underestimating the team after they lost their opening set of matches in the 2023 ODI World Cup.

However, never have Australia faced a crisis of this magnitude. Despite all of their aura and mentality, as many as five first-team members being ruled out at the last minute will have an effect on the team in some way or the other.

Luckily, amid all of the misfortune, Australia are blessed to have an experienced leader like Steve Smith to navigate this situation. His captaincy will be the key that Australia need to negate all of the absences and lack of form.

India, on the other hand, showcased exactly why they should be considered as favorites in the series against England. Although they did have their wobbly moments, they overcame them with ease, a true mark of a champion side. They come into the Champions Trophy with nearly all boxes ticked, as opposed to Australia.

In the end, Australia are vulnerable across two fronts. They are vulnerable to self-imploding and at risk of being outplayed. However, with India, there is a slim chance of being outplayed by the opposition, given their prowess, depth, and form, which makes them the clear favorite to win the trophy.