India v Australia: Will we wake up at 5.30 a.m in 2014?

I can never forget the time when I fell in love with cricket. It was in 1991-92, when Indians were getting regularly hammered in Australia. India lost a lot in those four months, including the terrible World Cup campaign (where they realistically didn’t have much of a chance). But the prospect of a stunning quality live telecast with Richie Benaud and Bill Lawry commentating made me get up every day at five in the morning to watch it live. The crowds were chock-a-block at the stadia, the Australians wore sunshine yellow, Indians wore cobalt blue, (unfortunately, only one dayers were telecasted live by good old Doordarshan. Does anyone watch it now?), Sachin Tendulkar was young and unencumbered and was hitting the likes of Craig McDermott and Merv Hughes to hitherto unknown areas of the cricket field, Kapil Dev proved to the world that he will fade away as a great (although he faded too slowly and sadly), and India discovered Javagal Srinath, the quintessential Indian fast bowler – so much promise but so less achieved.

Since then, every tour Down Under has been an event in life, to be savored while it lasted and then to be cherished. I belong to the generation that grew up with Tendulkar, and for him a tour to Australia was the epochal moment of his career and by extension for us. The fact that Australia see the rising sun far sooner than us has helped – no prospect of getting interrupted by inane Saas Bahu Soaps on TV!

So what do we have here? Australians don’t have the kind of blokes who can make atrocious claims like 4-0 ( a la Glenn McGrath) and not look ridiculous. They don’t have the hulking pirate Mathew Hayden and his edgy parrot perched on his shoulder, Justin Langer, at the top of the order. They don’t have the original most feared Test buccaneer, Adam Gilchrist, at number seven. They don’t have the assured class of Damien Martyn at four. They don’t have the crafty general, Mark Taylor or Alexander The Great of cricket, Steve Waugh. They don’t have the mesmerizing magician and the loveable lout, Shane Warne. They don’t have the metronome Glenn McGrath, the slinger Gillespie and Bullet Lee. Their lone great in the team, the titanic Ricky Ponting, is fighting for his place with Lilliputs (Dan Christian? Who?) and is losing.

What they have is a team of honest triers. But in that, lies the danger. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Indians, well they have everything to lose, don’t they? They have the middle order selectors of most countries would kill for. In Sehwag they have the batsman who makes bowlers question their chosen path in life. In Gambhir they have a potential great. In Kohli they have a potential master. They have a far better bowling attack led by the modern Sultan of Swing Zaheer, and a Srinath clone in Ishant (both in potential and performance. Have you observed? All the alphabets of Ishant’s name are there in Srinath’s?). In Dhoni they have a far mature and assured leader, accepted by the veterans, rookies, selectors and public alike.

My guess? 2-0 Australia. Or 2-1 at worst.

The reason?

Simple. Indians are such poor starters that it would be a miracle if we either save or win the first test. Going by the poor planning we are known for, I am sure they would’ve planned for such miracles. There is a huge question mark on the longevity of the bowling attack, and I am not talking about careers here, but the four tests of this series. It won’t be a surprise if the third or fourth test bowling line-up reads: Vinay Kumar, Abhimanyu Mithun, Ashoke Dinda and R Ashwin. Sehwag and Gambhir aren’t clicking together as often as they would want to, and the history has told us that Test matches are won by bowlers and openers. With due respects, Dhoni as the wicket-keeper batsman doesn’t have the aura Gilchrist or Andy Flower or Kumar Sangakkara or Matt Prior have/had.

It will all come down to how the holy trinity of Tendulkar, Laxman and Dravid blunts the new, shiny and scrubbed bowling attack of Australia. But they can’t win the games.

To win games, India will have to take roughly sixty five Australian wickets. Can they? I don’t think so.

So there. I am kind of sticking my neck out here. 2-0 Australia.

And if India wins it, you can make me eat the humble pie. I like pies!

But one thing is for sure, I wonder how many would be too keen to get up at five in the morning come 2014. There won’t be Sehwag then. No Ponting either. No Laxman and possibly no Dravid.

And why would we get up if there is no Sachin?