India Vs England Test match, What are the odds.

This much hyped heavy weight clash has been a real fizzer with England dominating India. Admittedly, India has had excuses with injuries and form issues to key men, but this being said England has also had similar issues. The cold hard facts of the series has been that a very professionally prepared England has been playing to its optimum, and duly overwhelmed an Indian Team. That has been a real disappointment on so many levels.

There is a chance for India to regain lost pride in the last two Tests starting here, but its a point of whether they are capable of doing so.England:Likely Team

The English are faced with one change forced by injury in regards to Jonathan Trott succumbing to a shoulder injury and Ravi Bopara replacing him. Chris Tremlett, who was touted to be fit for this Test hasn’t come up and duly Tim Bresnan will retain his spot. So the line up should be as follows:Strauss, Cook, Bell, Pietersen, Morgan, Bopara, Prior, Bresnan, Broad, Swann, AndersonIn my mind this Test presents a real challenge for England. I say this, for though India are like a ball of wool that has just been played around with by a demonic kitten- leaving it in a real mess. England are faced with going into a Test match without Jonathan Trott, a man that since his debut for England in the 08 Ashes has given England such balance.

This seen by the fact that Trott is a charismatic rock of a player, that is equally able to change gears and attack with due aplomb too. He is very reminiscent of his Indian counterpart Rahul Dravid. Thus having him in the line up gives the line up protection if the openers fail, for he is able to stabilise the situation. Then he is a perfect foil for the attacking players in the middle order. Through the fact that he grinds the bowlers at one end allowing the stroke makers to have the pressure taken of them at the other end. Due to the focus being on trying to usurp Trott.

Having said this, in Ian Bell England have a batsmen that could be an exceptional number three, but by having Bell at 5. It accentuates England’s batting strength by having such an exceptional player coming in usually against an old ball.

Now England have Bell at 3, and a player in Ravi Bopara batting at 5, that still has question marks against his name about his credentials in Test cricket.

So changes the line up a great deal and brings greater pressure on the openers in Strauss and Cook to perform in a series where both have struggled.

The bowling side of things from a pace viewpoint has been stellar for England. It is great to see Tim Bresnan retain his spot, even if it was facilitated by Chris Tremlett failing a fitness test. For it would have been a travesty of justice if Bresnan had to make way for Tremlett with how well he has performed.

Graeme Swann has been a concern with him being virtually a non factor in the series with only 2 wickets at an average of 105!

Which for a man having the reputation as being the best spinner in the game is in no way good enough.

So England will look to Swann to lift and become a factor in the series. For if he can, it will complete a bowling line up that has already been exceptional.IndiaLikely Team

The Indians have lost Yuvraj Singh and Harbhajan Singh to injury, but welcome back Gautam Gambhir and Virender Sehwag. Making the likely line up as follows:Sehwag, Gambhir, Dravid, Tendulkar, Laxman, Raina, Dhoni, Praveen, Ishant, Sreesanth, MishraWhere do we start with India?In all regards of the game they have been severely lacking as a unit, and most worrying of all has been the lapse attitude.Starting with the battingAll bar Rahul Dravid have struggled.Suresh Raina has been exposed as a dead man walking against the short ball and should be replaced, but his potential replacement in Virat Kohli is a carbon copy to Raina in this regard. Maybe Abhinav Mukund, who has struggled against the new ball could be a success away from it in the middle order. That would be the choice I would makeThe line up will be strengthened by the inclusion of the exceptional opening pair in Gautam Gambhir and Virender Sehwag. Sehwag’s inclusion will provide a massive boost after missing all of the series. Though fans should temper their enthusiasm in viewing him as a potential messiah for India. For he hasn’t batted in a long while and also struggles traditionally in swinging conditions.Though this being said, there is little rhyme or reason to Sehwag, so he is likely to come out and hit a run a ball 200.Crucially for India to be a factor in this match, and maybe make a Lazarus like comeback in the series the whole Team needs to lift from a batting stand point. This needs to be led from the immortals in the Team in Laxman and Tendulkar, who both have threatened to make conclusive contributions, but to this point have come up short. Then with this lead hopefully the inspiration will wipe off on the under performing lower middle order and the tail. A tail that has put little or no price on their wickets, which has been a crucial factor in the series.M.S Dhoni, a man that has such a feared reputation with the willow in hand needs to lift here. For he has been dreadful to be polite.The bowling has been exposed to be so dependant on Zaheer Khan to be the leader of their attack binding them together as a collective unit.His absence the performance with the ball be fragmented with all of Ishant, Sreesanth and Praveen being contributors at times in the series, but only Praveen being consistent throughout. As his 13 wickets and an average of 26.53 showsInconsistency plaguing the line up has seen the Indians have the English batting line up in trouble in both Tests, but unable to deliver a knock out blow.The bowling line up has been further undermined by the trails and tribulations of Harbhajan Singh. The veteran off spin bowler that was viewed as being a key before the series begun for the Indians in a positive sense, but instead only served to be one in a negative sense. In regards to being a non factor.Leg spinner Amit Mishra will be his replacement and though the pitch is again touted to be a bed made for seamers. Crucially for India, Mishra needs to be a factor in regards to keeping things tight and with it maintaining the pressure on the batsmen. Then maybe pinching a wicket here and there

Lastly to support the bowling line up the ‘chalta hai’ Indian attitude in the field needs to be changed big time. This needs to be lead by M.S.Dhoni reinventing himself from the bumbling fool he has been in the first two Tests to the respected gloveman he has been throughout his career. Then the rest of the ground fielders need to follow suit.

Prediction

The pitch is touted to again favour swing and seam but crucially for India’s prospects it will lack any meaningful pace. So the Indian bowling will still be supported and then the Indian batting, that has struggled with bounce and pace might be afforded a chance to perform.

The loss of Trott to England will rob them of arguably their most crucial man, but this is balanced by Zaheer’s absence for India.

Which ever way I look at it, I can’t see India’s bowling line up having the consistency to sustain enough threat to dismiss England twice.

So these are my odds

England win: 60%

India win: 25%

Draw (weather is forecast) 15%