India vs New Zealand Match Prediction: Who will win today's 2025 Champions Trophy Final match?

A few days ago, Varun Chakaravarthy spun India to an important win against New Zealand in the two teams' final group-stage game. Now, they will lock horns in the main event - the 2025 Champions Trophy final, to be played at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium on Sunday, March 9.

The Black Caps got to the summit clash with a gritty win over South Africa that wasn't really close despite David Miller reducing the margin of defeat in the final phase of the second innings. Barring their loss to the Men in Blue, New Zealand have played an excellent brand of cricket and are firing on all cylinders.

India, meanwhile, have been as consistent as expected. The batters seem to be in good form, and Dubai has allowed them to field a four-pronged spin attack in the last two matches. The Kiwis have experienced the difficulty of dealing with the quartet already and will be wary of the threat they can pose.

In all, this contest has everything riding on it. The 2023 World Cup eluded India, but another 50-over ICC trophy is up for grabs. Rohit Sharma and Co. have been one of the world's best ODI sides in recent years, and while nothing is "deserved" in cricket, it's safe to say that it would be a fitting reflection of their dominance if they come out on top on Sunday.

New Zealand are sweating over the fitness of fast bowler Matt Henry, who suffered a shoulder injury while taking a catch in the semifinal against South Africa. While he participated in training sessions ahead of the match, it's unclear whether he will be adjudged fit for the final. The fast bowler, who picked up five wickets in the league clash against India, will be sorely missed if he doesn't make the grade.

India, meanwhile, have a clean bill of health despite concerns over Rohit and Mohammed Shami. The veterans in the side might not make it to the 2027 World Cup, and we might see some of them in the last legs of their careers.

India's squad for the 2025 Champions Trophy: Rohit Sharma (captain), Shubman Gill (vice-captain), Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul, Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Washington Sundar, Kuldeep Yadav, Harshit Rana, Mohammed Shami, Arshdeep Singh, Varun Chakaravarthy, Rishabh Pant, Ravindra Jadeja.

New Zealand's squad for the 2025 Champions Trophy: Mitchell Santner (c), Michael Bracewell, Mark Chapman, Devon Conway, Kyle Jamieson, Matt Henry, Tom Latham, Daryl Mitchell, Will O’Rourke, Glenn Phillips, Rachin Ravindra, Nathan Smith, Kane Williamson, Will Young, Jacob Duffy.

Can India add another ICC trophy to their cabinet? Or will New Zealand upset them once again?

---

Champions Trophy 2025: In-form India look to cross the final frontier

India Portraits - ICC Champions Trophy 2025 - Source: Getty

Henry's fitness and potential absence will definitely play into India's hands. Without the new-ball bowler, New Zealand might have to choose between Nathan Smith and Jacob Duffy, who are clear downgrades.

Even otherwise, though, India will enter the contest as the favorites. Shubman Gill and Rohit Sharma have been in decent nick despite blowing hot and cold in the last few matches, and the middle-order batters have stepped up when needed.

The Men in Blue have virtually no weak links in the batting department, and while their fast-bowling unit isn't particularly encouraging, the strength of the spin attack makes up for that. Varun Chakaravarthy is an obvious trump card, while Ravindra Jadeja and Axar Patel have been in promising form as well.

New Zealand, on their part, are a plucky outfit that always do the basics right and won't be burdened by the big stage. Like their opponents, most of their batters are in form. But outside Henry and Mitchell Santner, the Kiwis arguably don't have much of an X-factor in their bowling attack for Dubai's conditions.

We've seen countless instances of the favorites being toppled in knockout matches, and that possibility is a very real one. But it's hard to bet against India based on a reason that is rooted in cricketing logic.

Prediction: India to win.