India vs Pakistan Match Prediction: Who will win today's 2025 Champions Trophy match?

The Champions Trophy is the only ICC tournament in which Pakistan have a winning record (3-2) against India. But looking at the numbers ahead of their meeting on Sunday, February 23, feels like a peculiar task. Given how the two teams are playing right now, history matters little in the wake of current form.

India are coasting along in the ODI format, having whitewashed England in a three-match series before commencing their Champions Trophy with a win over Bangladesh. The Men in Blue, who reached the 2023 World Cup final and beat Pakistan along the way, are clearly one of the world's best white-ball sides.

Pakistan, meanwhile, are stuck in a tough spot. While their ODI form has been encouraging at times, they went down rather convincingly to New Zealand. Mohammad Rizwan and Co. were caught out by an outdated batting approach, not for the first time in the recent past. And one of their odd ones out in terms of attacking strokeplay, Fakhar Zaman, has been ruled out of the Champions Trophy.

So ahead of the India vs Pakistan clash at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium, it's easy to see which team is favored to win. And even if you want to make the mistake of looking at the head-to-head record, the Men in Blue have been overwhelmingly dominant across formats and competitions.

But at the end of the day, Pakistan are Pakistan. They bring a reputation of being able to turn the screws when pushed against the wall, and if they don't find a way to stitch together a complete performance against their arch-rivals, they could find themselves embarrassed in their home tournament.

India's squad for the 2025 Champions Trophy: Rohit Sharma (captain), Shubman Gill (vice-captain), Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul, Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Washington Sundar, Kuldeep Yadav, Harshit Rana, Mohammed Shami, Arshdeep Singh, Varun Chakaravarthy, Rishabh Pant, Ravindra Jadeja.

Pakistan's squad for the 2025 Champions Trophy: Babar Azam, Imam-ul-Haq, Saud Shakeel, Mohammad Rizwan(c & wk), Salman Agha, Tayyab Tahir, Khushdil Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah, Haris Rauf, Abrar Ahmed, Kamran Ghulam, Faheem Ashraf, Mohammad Hasnain, Usman Khan.

Can India continue their dominant run against Pakistan? Or will the hosts stay alive in the Champions Trophy?

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Champions Trophy 2025: In-form India heavy favorites against struggling Pakistan

India Portraits - ICC Champions Trophy 2025 - Source: Getty

Without Fakhar, Pakistan might be forced to open with the newly incorporated Imam-ul-Haq. While Usman Khan is another option, he isn't used to opening the batting in the 50-over format and throwing him into the deep end might not be the best idea.

If Imam comes in, the Men in Green will have a largely pedestrian top six. Salman Agha is perhaps the only batter among the bunch who shows intent regularly, with Babar Azam being guilty of moving at a pedestrian strike rate far too often for someone of his potential.

India, meanwhile, have no such concerns. Rohit Sharma sets the tone at the top of the order, and the relentless run-scoring machines that are Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli and Shreyas Iyer support the skipper well. Even the players who had question marks around them, like Mohammed Shami and KL Rahul, chipped in with contributions in the previous game.

India are the obvious favorites for this game, and the absence of dew in Dubai takes the toss out of the equation. While Pakistan can put up a fight if they manage to take a few early wickets, nothing about Shaheen Afridi's recent form suggests that he has enough in the tank. Naseem Shah might be the biggest threat, but he too hasn't bowled enough wicket-taking deliveries in ODIs.

Expect India to notch up a routine win in this high-octane clash.

Prediction: India to win.