IPL 2024: Predicting where each team will finish in the group stage

#5 Royal Challengers Bengaluru

Could this be the year, finally? The RCB women’s team has already shown the way, can the men’s team now back it up and make it a truly memorable year for the franchise? These questions are commonplace, and whether RCB can break their IPL hoodoo is a conversation that happens before almost every season.

If you look at their top six, it is as good as any in the IPL. Virat Kohli, who reportedly has to prove his worth as a T20 batter, will be chomping at the bit to get stuck into the action and could have a massive season, alongside captain Faf du Plessis at the top of the order. Cameron Green, Glenn Maxwell, and Rajat Patidar are their middle-order marauders, and Dinesh Karthik their finisher. On paper at least, this is a title-winning top six.

T20 cricket, though, is played across 40 overs, of which 20 have to be bowled. And that is where RCB have more than a few shortcomings.

Before the IPL auction, they released Harshal Patel, Josh Hazlewood, and Wanindu Hasaranga. The troika were not quite at their best last year, and it showed as RCB were blitzed out by powerful batting outfits. The worry, though, is that they have not filled those holes.

Alzarri Joseph, Lockie Ferguson, and Tom Curran were bought at the auction. Reece Topley is also a part of their squad. But given the make-up of their top six, only one of these four pacers can play. None of them have IPL pedigree to bank on, and on the unforgiving pitches at the Chinnaswamy, could be found wanting.

Not only did RCB let Hasaranga go, but they also traded off Shahbaz Ahmed – a strange decision, considering he was in the Indian scheme of things not long ago. Mayank Dagar came in through the door as his replacement, but like the overseas pacers in the squad, he is largely untested.

A lot of bowling responsibility, thus, will fall on Mohammed Siraj. He has Akash Deep - fresh off an impressive Test debut – for company but if Siraj does not have a great season, RCB could huff and puff, especially when having to defend totals at home. Not to mention the pressure of chasing big scores when bowling first.

Because of the batting and all-round quality they have, they will be actively involved in what looks like a mid-table muddle. Can they emerge from that pack, though? Probably not.

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#4 SunRisers Hyderabad

Some captains just seem to have that Midas touch. Everything they touch seemingly turns to gold. Pat Cummins, after winning the World Test Championship and the ODI World Cup, seems to fall in that category.

Skippering an IPL side, of course, will be very different. And Cummins, for what it is worth, does not have any experience of leading in the IPL. In fact, some would even argue that SRH overpaid for him at the auction and that if he were not captain, he might not have gotten into their first-choice eleven.

But for a team that has not lived up to its billing in the last two years, Cummins – the captain - is possibly just what they need.

Cummins will have his hands full picking SRH’s four overseas players. Aiden Markram, Fazalhaq Farooqi, Glenn Phillips, Heinrich Klaasen, Marco Jansen, Travis Head, and Wanindu Hasaranga will effectively be fighting for three spots. Klaasen seems a shoo-in, as does Head, because of how much SRH spent on him. The last spot will be a toss-up based on the match-ups and the conditions.

Whichever way SRH go, though, they have overseas match-winners.

Their Indian players, thus, will be under the scanner. They have a pretty decent contingent, truth be told. Mayank Agarwal and Rahul Tripathi were playing for India not long ago (albeit in different formats). Abhishek Sharma, who will probably make up SRH’s top three (alongside Mayank and Head) had a stellar domestic season too.

Bhuvneshwar Kumar remains a canny operator. T Natarajan, if he can stay fit, could prove a valuable death-bowling option, while Umran Malik’s raw pace could be harnessed excellently by someone like Cummins.

This is also a monumental IPL season for Washington Sundar, who has just fallen off the radar slightly. He could even have a bigger role to play with the bat and his off-spin, in the powerplay, could be crucial, with Mayank Markande adept at bowling in the middle overs.

So, SRH seem to have a lot of bases covered. Matches, of course, are not played on paper. But with someone of Cummins’ stature leading, SRH might just make the most of these resources and put to bed the disappointment of 2023.

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#3 Chennai Super Kings

And…he’s back. Like MS Dhoni said he would. That is a cause for celebration among CSK fans, who know that their Thala has entered what can be called the twilight of his IPL career.

But Dhoni being the competitor he is, and CSK being the team they are, they would not want to settle for just a bit-part role in the IPL. If this is indeed Dhoni’s last IPL season, they would want him to sign off the only way he can.

For that, though, they will have to tide over several injury concerns. Dhoni, who hobbled his way through last season, did get his knee operated but it remains to be seen if he can tear across the wickets like he once used to.

Devon Conway is unavailable for the first half of the season, while there are question marks over Matheesha Pathirana and Mustafizur Rahman, both of whom injured themselves during the white-ball leg of the Bangladesh-Sri Lanka series. Shivam Dube is also not certain to start the IPL as he recovers from a side strain.

Thankfully for CSK, they had a more than decent auction. In Rachin Ravindra, they have a like-for-like replacement at the top of the order. Daryl Mitchell can take down spin akin to Ambati Rayudu (and Dube). Youngster Sameer Rizvi has been touted as a right-handed Suresh Raina, and with Shardul Thakur back, they have another death-bowling option, even if Shardul is prone to the odd expensive spell.

Plus, they will likely play seven games at Chepauk, which plays into the strengths of Ravindra Jadeja, Maheesh Theekshana, and possibly Mitchell Santner and Moeen Ali. Deepak Chahar and Ruturaj Gaikwad, with a T20 World Cup fast approaching, will have points to prove too, while Ajinkya Rahane would want to show that last season was not a flash in the pan.

So, CSK have several players who should have the bit between their teeth. And that, given this franchise’s pedigree and history, should be enough to take them to the playoffs. Repeating last season’s top-two finish in the league stages, though, might just be a stretch this time.

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#2 Rajasthan Royals

In 2022, the Rajasthan Royals had cast themselves as one of the teams to beat in the IPL. They went all the way to the final, and it took a stellar Hardik Pandya bowling display to peg them back.

They seemed intent on making up for that disappointment last year, racking up four wins (in their first five games). But then, something broke and they just could not recover. They finished on 14 points and missed the playoff cut.

Some of the issues that plagued them, namely the lack of all-rounders and a suitable death-overs option still persist to an extent. What has changed, though, is that several of their players are now at the top of their game and have had rich recent international experience.

Dhruv Jurel and Yashasvi Jaiswal were exceptional against England. Jaiswal was similarly sensational in IPL 2023 too, and it will not be a surprise if this duo puts opposition bowlers to the sword on a regular basis this IPL campaign.

Jos Buttler also arrives in much better form than he did last year, whereas Shimron Hetmyer, with a home T20 World Cup in sight, will want to make a dart at national selection. It will help that he will have West Indies captain Rovman Powell for company in the middle order, and if these three overseas stars can get going, there is no ground large enough in the IPL to contain them.

On the bowling front, R Ashwin, Trent Boult, and Yuzvendra Chahal will be key. Boult, in particular, will be fresh, having not played a lot of international cricket lately. RR have also added Avesh Khan to that attack, and he does offer incision, especially with Prasidh Krishna ruled out for the season.

RR’s X-Factor player, though, could be Riyan Parag. He has often been ridiculed on social media for his inability to deliver consistently. This time, he comes in on the back of an astonishing domestic season, which saw him take more responsibility and showcase the hitting ability that has made RR persist with him for so long.

Thus, it is hard to look past the Royals as one of the four teams that will qualify. How (or if) they hold their nerve will become clearer as the season progresses, but before a ball has been bowled, the Rajasthan Royals do look like one of the teams to beat.

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#1 Mumbai Indians

The dream team. Much of the star cast that won the 2019 edition of the IPL and dominated the season after, is back. Hardik Pandya, undeniably, is the most high-profile returnee, having led the Gujarat Titans to a title and a runners-up finish during his time away.

Jasprit Bumrah, who did not bowl a single ball last season, has been purring in recent weeks, and he will single-handedly transform a bowling attack that seemed to lack bite at times in 2023.

Rohit Sharma, fresh off leading India to a 4-1 series win over England, will not be captain this time, but he is batting superbly, and featuring only as a player, could liberate him to rip apart bowling attacks during the powerplay.

Ishan Kishan, who has been through some troubled times lately, is also back in the fray, and will be hoping to push forward his case for a national call-up. Suryakumar Yadav, missing from action due to injury, is also primed to return and will likely play a massive role in MI’s IPL campaign.

To add to that, Mumbai have Tilak Varma and Tim David in the mix. The former remains an exciting prospect; the latter is a genuine finisher and has been in sterling form, meaning that pound-for-pound, MI have possibly the most devastating top six in the IPL.

The acquisition of Mohammad Nabi at the auction also seems shrewd, given he can bat below David, finish off games, and be a trusted four-over bowler.

Gerald Coetzee is a solid addition to their pace department, even though he is coming in on the back of an injury. Dilshan Madushanka, when fit, is a genuine wicket-taking option with the new ball, while Luke Wood (signed up as Jason Behrendorff’s replacement) has illustrated his ability to extract pace, bounce, and movement in various T20 leagues.

Their spin-bowling stocks, compared to some of the other IPL teams, seems slightly thinner but the tracks at the Wankhede Stadium are anyway not expected to aid spin much.

The only thing, thus, that can pull MI down is if they do not have a smooth captaincy transition. Given how experienced Hardik and Rohit are, and considering how successful Hardik has already been as an IPL captain, that should not be a big problem. And if that particular obstacle is hurled over, there is not a lot that can stop MI from topping the table in the league stages.