IPL 2024 Qualification scenarios: How can LSG qualify for playoffs after their 19-run loss to DC?

Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) have dug themselves a deeper hole after a disappointing 19-run defeat against Delhi Capitals (DC) on May 14. The defeat almost realistically ended their playoff hopes with the side sliding to 7th on the points table with 12 points in 13 games at a dismal Net Run Rate (NRR) of -0.787.

LSG can only reach a maximum of 14 points, thus without any chance of leapfrogging the top two teams, Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Rajasthan Royals (RR), who are on 19 and 16 points, respectively.

It leaves LSG with the unenviable task of overtaking three of the four teams above them - Chennai Super Kings (CSK), SunRisers Hyderabad (SRH), Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) and Delhi Capitals (DC).

Before looking at other permutations, LSG will have to defeat Mumbai Indians (MI) in their final league-stage encounter by as big a margin as possible to improve their woeful NRR. The margin of victory would have to first take them above DC, who have finished their 14 games with as many points and an NRR of -0.377.

LSG would then need SRH to lose their remaining two games by a massive margin that will take their current NRR of +0.406 below LSG's NRR.

CSK, on 14 points, face RCB, on 12, in their final game, with both teams having way better NRRs than LSG of +0.528 and +0.387 respectively. It means one of the two teams will finish above LSG irrespective of the result.

Hence, LSG's best bet is to leapfrog DC with a mammoth win against MI and then for SRH to lose both their games badly to have their NRR fall below LSG. In addition, either CSK have to defeat RCB by any margin or RCB has to decimate CSK by such a margin that CSK's NRR goes below LSG's.

LSG also has to hope there are no washouts to either their clash against MI or SRH's remaining two outings, which will eliminate them from playoff contention.

However, the difference in NRRs between LSG and their rival sides is so big that only unrealistic mathematical miracles of the highest order will propel them to the playoffs.

"We keep losing a lot of wickets in the powerplay" - KL Rahul

LSG skipper KL Rahul was visibly upset with the side's near season-ending defeat to DC and pointed to the lack of solid starts with the bat as the primary reason behind their debacle.

In a virtual must-win game against DC, LSG were reduced to 44/4 in the 5th over in their run chase of 209. The dismal start proved so costly that even half-centuries by Nicholas Pooran and Arshad Khan could not salvage their innings that ended 19 runs short of DC's total.

Reflecting on the defeat at the post-match presentation, Rahul said:

"We did well at the back end and 200 was a par total, we should have chased it down. This has been a problem right through the season - we keep losing a lot of wickets in the powerplay, we never get a solid start to get the likes of Stoinis and Pooran in, that is the big reason why we are in this position."

After qualifying for the playoffs in their first two seasons in 2022 and 2023, LSG are on the brink of elimination, barring a miracle of epic proportions.

Their final outing against MI will be played at the Wankhede Stadium on Friday, May 17.