Leg and Off: Should India make any changes to their playing XI for the 4th BGT 2024-25 Test?

The 2024-25 Border-Gavaskar series is at a tipping point, with the series level at 1-1. Australia have gone for radical changes in the business end of the series and there is pressure on India to embrace a similar route, with scrutiny on several players at the minute.

The team's performance so far and the challenges that lie ahead do present India with potential changes that could be made. While the options are there, the question is whether India will jump at it or resist the temptation.

On that note, let us dissect whether Team India need any changes to their playing XI for the fourth BGT 2024-25 Test in Melbourne.

#1 India do not have the pressure of 'winning combination' holding them back

Questions are rightly being raised over potential changes in the playing XI because of the dismal performances over the last two Tests. The existing combination that played in Brisbane does not have much foundation to retain their places because of how much they struggled.

For the third Test, India made two changes as Ravindra Jadeja and Akash Deep came in for Ravichandran Ashwin and Harshit Rana, respectively. While those changes paid off, there are only a couple of names from the rest of the side that put in a shift to cement their place for the next Test.

India may have etched out a draw at The Gabba but it could have been easily a demoralizing defeat had rain not intervened. Casting the result aside and looking at the performance alone, it was a downright extension of the disaster in Adelaide.

The bowlers could not contain the Australian batting unit at The Gabba while the Indian batters needed the help of their bowlers just to avoid the follow-on.

Based on that performance alone, change is necessary. However, the question remains - do India have enough firepower on the bench to replace the personnel in the existing playing XI?

#2 Pacers' workload management

One area where India can realistically consider a change is in their seam bowling department. This has been an area of concern, with Bumrah more or less carrying the load alone. The supporting cast of Mohammed Siraj, Akash Deep, and Harshit Rana have only been brilliant in flashes, with not enough consistent pressure put on the Australian batters.

Bumrah and Siraj have played three Tests each, and a hint of fatigue might start to appear. Both have already sustained niggles while bowling so far, with Siraj even leaving the field on multiple occasions.

Although India have had the luxury of early finishes and a short stint in the second innings at The Gabba, that should not be treated as encouragement to keep them going all out. Especially because the bowlers have not had enough rest in between innings because India have folded out too quickly with the bat.

While resting Bumrah is unfortunately not an option, Siraj can be given a break so that he can be fresh for the series finale in Sydney.

India have enough reserves in the seam bowling department despite Mohammed Shami being ruled out completely. Both Harshit Rana and Prasidh Krishna have proven to be able to support bowlers in the past.

In fact, Prasidh Krishna was the pick of the bowlers for India A during the second unofficial Test against Australia A at the MCG recently. The tall pacer comes across as the ideal candidate to extract bounce off what is expected to be a very lively surface.

#3 Recent record at MCG does not warrant a second spinner

Reports are hinting towards the inclusion of a second spinner alongside Ravindra Jadeja. If Washington Sundar comes in for Nitish Reddy, that deprives India of one of their finest batters in the series so far. His inclusion in place of Gill perhaps, makes the middle-order a bit dicey to be fair.

Another option is to not consider the second spinner at all, especially because there is not much hard evidence to support it. Pitch curator Matt Page has prepared a lively green pitch for the occasion, and if there is any turn on offer, it will be in the second innings, if there are any rough marks to exploit.

"Seven years ago, the pitch was quite flat. We sat down as an organization and said we want to create more exciting Tests, so we leave more grass on now. And that brings the bowlers into it a bit more, but the surface is still good for batting once the new ball goes off. We have been running at six millimetres of grass and we will monitor that," MCG curator Matt Page said ahead of the Boxing Day Test (via Hindustan Times).

"We’re never going to be as quick as Perth and Brisbane, but over the last few years, we’ve managed to get some pace in it, which has created that excitement. There’s a bit of grass on it. If you’re a fast bowler and you look at it, you probably do get excited," he added.

Team India batter Cheteshwar Pujara has also discouraged India from going in the direction of the two-spinner formula. He feels that the combination has to be altered to increase the boling depth increasing the responsibility on the batters.

"I think the bowling lineup is something which India needs to work on. I feel that Bumbrah, Siraj and Akash Deep, they are doing a good job. Jadeja and Nitish both have contributed well with the bat, but we are lacking one bowler and India will have to add another bowler if possible and maybe try and reduce a batter. I don't know. I'm unable to find the right 11 at the moment because I don't see a lot of changes going into the next Test match," Pujara said on ESPN Cricinfo (via India Today).

Their statements are one thing, but what does the recent record say when it comes to spin bowling at the MCG?

Last year's Boxing Day Test saw the seamers run riot, with Mir Hamza memorably reducing Australia to 16-4. Even in the recently conducted second unofficial Test between India A and Australia A, pacers had the firmer say.

However, off-spinner Corey Rocchiccioli bagged a four-wicket haul in the second innings, hinting some assistance as the pitch wore on.

The MCG has hosted a couple of Sheffield Shield matches since the season began in October. Across those games, Todd Murphy, Mitchell Swepson, and Nathan Lyon had some say in the proceedings but not enough to suggest that two spinners are necessary.

If India thinks that they need an off-spinner who can take the ball away from the left-handed batters in the second innings, that may suggest that Jadeja might not be enough in the spin department. However, this would be a huge gamble to take.

#4 The existing batting combination could work with just a shuffle and not a change

If workload management and the bowling combination are not a concern, India arguably do not have any reason to enforce a change in the playing XI. While the batters have not fired, in their defence, neither have the Australian batters, and the conditions have been quite testing at times too.

The existing batting group is potentially the best that the visitors could produce on paper. If the current formula has not worked, then some minor changes could do the trick.

Reports have suggested that Rohit could open while KL Rahul drops down to No.3. This might not be the worst option because the skipper has not fired in the middle order and India could use Rahul's stability at No.3 in a Pujara-esque role.

Gill, on the other hand, could use an innings where he can bat when the conditions have eased up and the ball is softer. While this is by no means a long-term fix, this might just be the way to go solely keeping the BGT in mind.