MS Dhoni - A Chennai Super King in denial

MS Dhoni hasn’t been learning from his mistakes in recent seasons

“This was a good team effort, but we never reached 100% efficiency level. Losing Brendon McCullum just before the knockouts was a big blow. These are all part and parcel of the game, you can't really help it,” said the Chennai Super Kings (CSK) captain MS Dhoni following yet another defeat in the knockout stages of the Indian Premier League (IPL).

It has now been four years since the Chennai-based franchise last won an IPL trophy. Out of the 8 trophies that they competed for in that period, all that they have managed to win is one – the Champions League T20 (CLT20) tournament held last year. For a team that prides itself on its big match temperament, that, sure, is a big concern.

So much so that, after being brought to their knees by Mumbai Indians in the final, Dhoni concluded his speech in the post-match presentation ceremony saying, “We need to go back to the drawing board and see how we can win the IPL.” Have the Super Kings forgotten how to win an IPL trophy?

It’s beyond McCullum and out-of-form top order

What has gone wrong? Can losing McCullum have such a big impact? Or was it just that they were unlucky to have a couple of their star players in bad form throughout the tournament? Even if you buy all those, what about the previous three seasons? They had all that they missed this season, yet they lost. It is important to look through the right mirror to find what their problem actually is.

Being deprived of McCullum's services for the playoffs was a big blow indeed. But that wasn’t the reason they lost the match. Their misfiring top order had nothing to do with it either.

They lost because they conceded 202. They lost because they played Faf du Plessis, their best batsman on form, at No.7 in the final; because they have been continuously playing him in the middle order, which has had a severe impact in his contributions to the team; because they don’t see they need a bowling attack for them to win matches when the wickets don't assist spin bowling; because Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja and Pawan Negi can’t do the job on flat wickets, nor is it fair to expect them to; because they play their spin trio match in, match out not for their bowling ability, but for the “extra 20 runs” that every single one of them can offer and; because their think-tank prefers all-rounders ahead of specialists.

Because, MS, you are not flexible enough. How many Chennai Super Kings fans know Andrew Tye and Kyle Abbott? They are part of your squad. How good are they? Abbott is one of the best exponents around with the new ball. He could have been your Ben Hilfenhaus of this IPL. Tye is a dark horse but was worth a try especially when you know your bowlers are leaking plenty of runs. He has made a name for himself in the Big Bash League (BBL) with his ability to bowl at demanding stages of the game.

The pattern of winning teams

Have a look at the bowling attacks of the IPL winning teams in the past 4 years:

2015 (Mumbai Indians): Lasith Malinga, Mitchell McClenaghan, Harbhajan Singh, Jagadeesha Suchith and Vinay Kumar

2014 (Kolkata Knight Riders): Morne Morkel, Sunil Narine, Shakib Al Hasan, Umesh Yadav and Piyush Chawla

2013 (Mumbai Indians): Lasith Malinga, Mitchell Johnson, Harbhajan Singh, Pragyan Ojha, Rishi Dhawan and Kieron Pollard

2012 (Kolkata Knight Riders): Brett Lee, Sunil Narine, Shakib Al Hasan, Jacques Kallis, Iqbal Abdulla, Rajat Bhatia

Do you see the pattern? They have all had well-rounded bowling units, despite it coming at the cost of two of their overseas slots. The Super Kings, on the other hand, have gone overboard with their love for all-rounders and “that extra batsman”. While it is true that every team has its way of playing, what good is your way when your are time and again ending up as the second-best as a result of your bowling unit?

It's not that they were caught off guard. The alarm bells have been loud and clear for quite a few seasons now. The Super Kings looked hopeless almost every time they played on a good batting deck this season – Rajasthan Royals chased down 157 with a loss of just two wickets, Sunrisers Hyderabad piled up a massive 192/7 in 20 overs without Moises Henriques contributing anything of note and Mumbai Indians scored 183 at Wankhede in their first encounter this season, before following it up with scores of 187 and 202 in the knockouts.

Knock.. knock.. Heard of a bowling attack?

You might throw up Ashish Nehra's name here, claiming him to be your new ball specialist this season. Nehra did have a wonderful season, but with due respect to his exploits, would you bet on him getting a David Warner or a Lendl Simmons? Given below is a list of his performances against the top 5 teams of this IPL:

Ashish Nehra vs Top 5 teams	First match	Second match	Third and Fourth match
Mumbai Indians	4-0-32-3*	3-0-45-0	4-0-28-1 & 4-0-41-0
Kolkata Knight Riders	4-0-38-1	4-0-36-0
Royal Challengers Bangalore	4-0-10-4	4-0-19-3	4-0-28-3
Rajasthan Royals	4-0-32-0	4-0-29-0
Sunrisers Hyderabad	4-0-31-1	4-0-31-0

*Mumbai were a woeful team in the first half of the tournament, so their first match won't be considered.

Leave the Royal Challengers Bangalore part apart, who were hell-bent on gifting as many wickets as he earned against them, can you point out a single impact performance from the list? Where are the wickets that your new ball bowler should take? He hasn't taken more than a single wicket in nine of the remaining ten matches and has conceded 7.5 or more runs per over in eight of them.

Let's come to Dwayne Bravo now.

Bravo vs Top 5 teams	On slow, low wickets	On flat decks
Mumbai Indians	2.2-0-16-1	12-0-106-2
Kolkata Knight Riders	5-0-49-3	-
Royal Challengers Bangalore	6.4-0-38-3	3-0-25-1
Rajasthan Royals	4-0-43-2	2.2-0-30-1
Sunrisers Hyderabad	4-0-25-2/7.72	4-0-25-3/8.77

*Kolkata (during league stages), Ranchi and Chepauk are considered as slow, low decks.

If you have a look at the above table, you would understand that Bravo isn’t the same force on flat decks. The Caribbean all-rounder concedes at 8.77 runs per over on good batting decks as compared to just 7.72 runs per over on supportive decks. If your go-to man concedes at that rate, you have an issue, a big one at that.

He also picks up a wicket every couple of overs on slow, low decks (11 in 22 overs) as compared to one every 3 overs on decks that support batsmen (7 in 21.2 overs). That's a negative there as well.

This isn't the spinners’ world

Ravichandran Ashwin’s case is even worse. The decline in his performances since 2011 is clearly evident from the stats below:

Ravichandran Ashwin	Matches	Wickets	Average	ER
2010	12	13	22.53	6.10
2011	16	20	19.40	6.15
2012	19	14	30.78	6.54
2013	18	15	26.00	6.72
2014	16	16	27.31	7.30

Ashwin in 2015	Innings	Overs	Wickets	Runs	Economy
Home	5	18	8	83	4.61
Away	8	21	2	145	6.90

This last table pretty much explains it all. At home, Ashwin and Co. spin a web around oppositions. But away from home, Dhoni has not even been able to give Ashwin his full quota of overs. Considering the off-spinner's performances at home this IPL and his impressive show at the 2015 World Cup, you would be able to say that he is in some serious form. So, why was he not able to replicate that in the away matches in IPL this season?

Go back to India’s 2015 World Cup campaign. What was the team’s biggest plus point? The pacers. Their ability to consistently strike in the powerplay overs. It is relatively easy for a spinner to then come in and run the show. On a slow, low deck, it doesn’t matter anyway. But here when the Super Kings play away from home, their new ball bowlers fail to deliver – Mohit Sharma had a forgettable campaign and you saw Nehra’s numbers above.

I wouldn’t really blame Ashwin here. It is unfair to expect him to do well if you give the ball to him with the top 3 well-settled almost always. Look at Harbhajan Singh's performances on either side of the Mitchell Johnson-season.

Harbhajan Singh	Matches	Wickets	Average	Economy
In 2012	17	6	64.00	7.11
In 2013 (With Johnson)	19	24	19.00	6.51
In 2014	14	14	25.42	6.47

There are numerous such examples. The impact that Mitchell Starc was able to have on the entire RCB bowling unit is a case in point as well. A batsman's mindset would be different when he knows he can't score off Starc’s four overs, so he will have to take those extra risks in the middle overs which can play into the hands of the opposition. An above average bowler, therefore, becomes good on most occasions. The Dindas of the world remain Dindas though.

Also, a batsman seeing a flighted delivery when on 60/1 in 7 overs isn't the same as the one who sees it on 48/2. As a bowler, you can bowl a couple of loose deliveries and can get away when the pressure is on the opposition.

The inexplicable Ishwar Pandey axe

Doesn't it make sense to improve your new ball bowling unit on good batting decks then? Didn't Dhoni have options? He had, and I am not even getting into the overseas players and the ones that were missed in the auction.

There is a certain bloke who goes around by the name of Ishwar Pandey – he had the second-best bowling average and the second-best economy rate for the Super Kings this season. What happened to him? He was dropped mysteriously towards the latter end of the season, and three bowlers – Ravindra Jadeja, Pawan Negi and Mohit Sharma – who had a horror tournament, by any standards, continued to play.

Bowler	Matches	Overs	Runs	Wickets	Average	Economy
Ishwar Pandey	10	31	223	11	20.27	7.19
Ravindra Jadeja	17	42.4	330	11	30.00	7.73
Mohit Sharma	16	57.0	481	14	34.35	8.43
Pawan Negi	10	30	252	6	42.00	8.40

If you show me those figures and tell me that I should drop one of them, I would drop anyone but Pandey. But the Super Kings think different.

Of the 3, you can understand Negi getting a slot given his ability to provide some quick runs down the order, but how did Pandey warrant a drop ahead of Jadeja and Sharma? And Dhoni says this: the players never reached their 100% efficiency. How will they reach when you continue to stick with underperfomers or underutilise players?

And speaking of underusing players, here comes the Du Plessis mess. Playing the South African T20 captain at No.4 would qualify as the biggest blunder of this season if you don't take into account the customary millions that are spent on the likes of Yuvraj Singh and Dinesh Karthik at the auction every year.

Du Plessis is too big to be Badrinath

Faf du Plessis is being wasted in this side

What do you do to a player who was one of the biggest revelations of the year 2012? Chuck it. The Super Kings will play him at a position that will totally nullify his threat: at No.4. Du Plessis scored 398 runs in just 12 innings at an average of 33.16 and strike-rate of 130.92 as an opener in 2012. His highest score during this season, 73, still remains to be his highest in his IPL career – and he has to credit his team's think-tank for that. They hardly gave him an opportunity to improve.

When he came back to join the team in 2014, after missing the 2013 season due to an injury, he was straightaway demoted in favour of the Super Kings’ new overseas inputs Dwayne Smith and Brendon McCullum. He was able to return only 195 runs in the 8 innings he batted at No.4 at an average of 24.37, which is 9 less than what he managed in his debut season. He managed to go past the half century mark only once during this period.

Following the departure of McCullum late in the season, he was back again opening the innings. Guess what? He registered his highest score that season, 54* against Royal Challengers Bangalore, in just the second innings after promotion. He looked in glorious touch and it was said that he had finally found his form, which wasn't really true. it was what opening did to him.

The ‘adapting to the team’s needs' theory only holds good if it doesn’t affect a player's potential and if the swap makes makes both the players deliver, which in turn can make the team better. In this case, it clearly didn’t. Du Plessis has his strengths – being someone who relies more on timing than power, he needs powerplay restrictions to convert his scoring shots. The lowest he could bat is at No.3, and even that could backfire if the first wicket doesn't fall early.

Dhoni-led teams and player mismanagement

Du Plessis has played 20 off his 22 international T20 innings at No.3. He has scored six 50+ scores, and the latest he has come to the crease during those six innings is the fifth over. The highest he has scored coming in after the seventh over – a period during which you normally expect your No.4 to come in ideally – is 22, although only two of his innings fit under the bracket.

When you bat him at No.4, below the likes of Dwayne Smith, Brendon McCullum and Suresh Raina, who are likely to face majority of the 120 deliveries in a T20 match, what sort of a role you have in mind for Du Plessis?

Do you see him as the one to do damage control in case of a top order collapse? You may miss Subramaniam Badrinath, but does it really make sense to waste an overseas slot to do what he did? Not just this year, this has been a worrying pattern with pretty much all Dhoni-led teams. Happened with Albie Morkel before and is happening with Ajinkya Rahane currently.

Take the just concluded IPL too – a season where he was again asked to bat at No.4 and ended up batting at bizarre numbers.

If you take out the 121 runs he scored in the 3 innings he batted at No.3 after the departure of McCullum, he was able to manage only 259 runs at an average of 25.9 in the remaining 12 innings he batted at No.4 or below. And again, it is after being promoted to No.3 that he registered his highest score of the season – 55 against Kings XI Punjab.

The reason why I have stressed so much on the No.4 slot of Du Plessis is that this is the slot that prevents the Super Kings from playing an overseas bowler. And when it comes at such a cost, you should make complete use of it; the Super Kings clearly haven't. With Dwayne Smith struggling, the Super Kings could have easily dropped him, played one of the two overseas pacers in his place instead and opened with Du Plessis.

The Dougi Bollinger Storm and zero lessons learnt

This is not the first time the Super Kings have found themselves in this situation. They were in a similar situation six years before, and even back then only a forced replacement turned things around for them. Midway through 2010, the Super Kings had lost 5 of the 8 matches they had played and didn’t look like a team that had it in them to qualify for the knockouts. Then came Doug Bollinger, a mid season replacement for the injured Jacob Oram.

The left-arm pacer turned the team's season on its head with his incisive new ball spells and accurate death bowling. It also coincided with the emergence of Ravichandran Ashwin and the most productive year of Muttiah Muralitharan in the Super Kings colours. The result? They won 6 of the remaining 8 matches and eventually went on to do the double, winning the Champions League 2010 held in South Africa. They could have bought Bollinger at the auction and bossed the entire season, but the Super Kings chose to be Super Kings.

Although they couldn’t buy back Muralitharan in the next season, the duo of Bollinger and Ashwin continued their dream run helping the team clinch their second IPL title. It was during that period that the Super Kings played like a world-class outfit. They won three of the four titles they competed for in 2010 and 2011. The oppositions were reduced to scores of 146/9 (IPL 2010 final), 128/10 (CLT20 2010 final) and 147/8 (IPL 2011 final). There was only one team that ever looked like winning those matches – Chennai Super Kings.

CSK’s top 3 bowlers in 2010	Matches	Wickets	Average	Economy
Doug Bollinger	8	12	17.25	6.67
Ravichandran Ashwin	12	13	22.53	6.10
Muttiah Muralitharan	12	15	21.93	6.85

Bollinger showed signs of decline in the 2012 Champions League and in the following season and was released in 2012. While the Super Kings have invested on some young, untested overseas bowlers since then (with Hilfenhaus and Samuel Badree being exceptions), they have hardly given them enough chances to prove their ability. Why buy them when you aren't confident enough?

Bowlers bought by CSK after Bollinger’s release	Year	Chances in IPL
Ben Laughlin	2013	2
Akila Dananjaya	2013	0
Jason Holder	2013	6
Ben Hilfenhaus	2014	8
John Hastings	2014	1
Matt Henry	2014	0
Samuel Badree	2014	4
Kyle Abbott	2015	0
Andrew Tye	2015	0

Be flexible or perish

Kolkata Knight Riders and Mumbai Indians have caught up with the Super Kings. They may not be as consistent in making the top 4, but when they do, they are most likely to win. Royal Challengers Bangalore, under Virat Kohli, look a different unit altogether (if only they can spend wisely). Rajasthan Royals and Sunrisers Hyderbad aren’t too far away.

Most of these teams have cracked the code to play at Chepauk: play more spinners, go big in the powerplay overs and try not to be silly against CSK’s slow bowlers. The matches this year were so much closer than they used to be in the first few seasons. The home advantage isn’t as big anymore. If the Super Kings don’t wake up, they will soon be left high and dry. Their competitors have started to understand how the game works and are more flexible.

At least, Arsenal have 19 other teams to be content with a top 4 spot every year. In the IPL, all you have is 8 teams and making the top 4 isn’t as big an achievement as it is made out to be. It's isn't too late yet, but if only MS Dhoni and Co. can stop living in denial.