2025 Champions Trophy Qualification scenarios: How can Australia get knocked out after Afghanistan's 8-run win over England?

As Afghanistan completed a stunning victory over England in a crucial Group B encounter of the 2025 Champions Trophy in Lahore on February 26, all eyes turned to the points table and the possible semifinal scenarios. England became the first casualty in the group with two losses in as many games.

However, South Africa, Australia, and Afghanistan are all in contention for the two semifinal spots. For the Aussies, the equation is simple - beat Afghanistan, and a knockout berth is confirmed.

Yet, the complications begin if they lose to the up-and-coming Afghan unit in their final Group B outing. As things currently stand, South Africa and Australia are on 3 points each, with Afghanistan breathing down their necks on 2.

Should Afghanistan defeat Australia in Lahore on Friday, February 28, they will leapfrog the Aussies to 4 points, with Australia still stuck on 3. Should South Africa beat England the following day, they will move to 5 points, thereby eliminating Australia from the 2025 Champions Trophy.

Even if the Proteas lose to England after Afghanistan beat Australia, the Aussies will be tied with South Africa on 3 points and could be knocked out based on the two teams' net run rate.

Australia will automatically qualify for the semifinal if rain intervenes in their clash against Afghanistan and the teams share a point each. Thus, Steve Smith's men are the favorites to finish in the top two and clinch a semifinal spot.

The only scenario in which Australia suffer elimination involves Afghanistan beating them, followed by South Africa defeating England or losing to them by a margin that keeps them ahead of Australia on net run rate.

---

India and New Zealand have qualified for 2025 Champions Trophy semifinals

Things have been more straightforward in Group A of the 2025 Champions Trophy, with India and New Zealand flexing their muscles from the get-go. Both sides have won their respective matches against Pakistan and Bangladesh to earn semifinal qualification.

India and New Zealand will face off for top-of-the-group honors in Dubai on Sunday, March 2. Meanwhile, the two eliminated teams - Pakistan and Bangladesh will play an inconsequential game against each other to avoid a winless tournament in Rawalpindi on February 27.

It is India's third consecutive semifinal qualification in the Champions Trophy, while New Zealand will be in the top four for the first time since the 2009 edition.