IPL 2023 playoffs qualification scenarios: How can Mumbai Indians qualify despite loss to Lucknow Super Giants?

Mumbai Indians (MI) lost to Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) by five runs in match number 63 of the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2023 at the Bharat Ratna Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee Ekana Cricket Stadium in Lucknow on Tuesday, May 16.

Sent into bat after losing the toss, LSG recovered from 35/3 to post a competitive 177/3 as Marcus Stoinis hammered an unbeaten 89 off 47 balls. In reply, Mumbai got off to a great start as their openers added 90 in under 10 overs. However, Lucknow fought back to restrict MI to 172/5.

Following the defeat, Mumbai Indians slipped to fourth position in the IPL 2023 points table with 14 points from 13 matches, while Lucknow moved up to third with 15 points from 13 games. Despite the loss, Mumbai remain in contention for a place in the IPL 2023 playoffs.

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What Mumbai Indians need to do to qualify for IPL 2023 playoffs

The best chance for MI to qualify for the IPL 2023 playoffs is obviously by winning their last match against Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai on May 21. A win in that game will see them finish with 16 points.

If Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) and Punjab Kings (PBKS) lose one of their remaining two games, then MI will go through as they will finish above both teams on the points table. Both RCB and PBKS have 12 points from 12 matches.

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A three-way tie between MI, RCB and PBKS?

Another possible scenario is Mumbai Indians beating SRH and RCB and PBKS also winning their remaining two games. In such a situation, all three teams will be on 16 points each.

The net run rate situation then comes into play. Currently, MI have a net run rate of -0.128, RCB’s run rate is +0.166 and that of PBKS is -0.268.

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What if MI lose to SRH?

If Mumbai go down to SRH, they will remain on 14 points. The five-time champions will again need RCB and PBKS to lose at least one of their next two games. Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Rajasthan Royals (RR) also come into the equation here.

Both have 12 points from 13 games and will finish on 14 points if they win their respective last matches. Mumbai Indians’ chances of qualifying on the basis of net run rate will be tough in this scenario since RR have a healthy run rate of +0.140.

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Top two finish still a possibility for MI?

This might sound a bit far-fetched, but MI have an outside chance of ending up in the top two as well after the league stage. Considering LSG and Chennai Super Kings (CSK) lose their last two matches, they will remain on 15 points.

If MI register a huge win over SRH, they could get a last-minute entry into the top two on the basis of a superior net run rate, even if Bangalore and Punjab win their next two games and finish equal on points with Mumbai.