"Sri Lanka can cause a shock this week" - Michael Vaughan says visitors can win ENG vs SL 2024 1st Test if they set a target close to 200

Michael Vaughan reckons Sri Lanka can register a shock win in the first Test against England if they can set a fourth-innings target close to 200. He pointed out the Old Trafford surface will help the visitors' cause.

England ended the second day in Manchester on Thursday, August 22, at 259/6. They have a first-innings lead of 23, having bundled Sri Lanka out for 236 on the first day.

Reviewing the game on BBC Test Match Special, Vaughan opined that Sri Lanka can spring a surprise if they set England a challenging target.

"I really like the pitch. I think it will keep Sri Lanka interested. It's all about can they get the four wickets quick enough and can they really bat well in that second innings when they are going to be under a huge amount of pressure. If they can ask England to get 200 in the last innings here at Old Trafford when the ball is just gripping, Sri Lanka can cause a shock this week," he said.

The former England captain believes the Lankan Lions need to get rid of Jamie Smith early on the third morning to keep their hopes alive.

"It all comes down to that opening set because if Jamie Smith gets going, we saw him against the West Indies at Edgbaston, he can crash the ball to all parts, and he can get 60 in the space of 30-40 balls. If he does that, I think that will be Test match towards England. If they can get Jamie Smith early, then the lead is only 50 or 60, Sri Lanka are right in this Test match with the way the pitch is playing," Vaughan explained.

Smith has scored an unbeaten 72 off 97 deliveries with the help of five fours and a six. He has Gus Atkinson for company, with Matthew Potts, Mark Wood and Shoaib Bashir to follow.

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"They will face a lot of Bashir but they are used to facing off-spin" - Michael Vaughan

Shoaib Bashir picked up three wickets in Sri Lanka's first innings.

In the same discussion, Michael Vaughan opined that Sri Lanka shouldn't be too concerned about Shoaib Bashir.

"Sri Lanka are in this game. If they can keep the lead to 80 to 100 and then go and get 300-350, and with that batting lineup they have on this kind of surface, there is not a great deal of pace. They will face a lot of Bashir but they are used to facing off-spin. Alright, he is a tall off-spinner, you don't get too many of those but they are used to facing spin. So they should fancy getting runs against Bashir," he reasoned.

However, the cricketer-turned-commentator added that England's new-ball bowlers, especially Mark Wood, will pose the biggest challenge to the visitors.

"If they can survive that new ball burst from Gus Atkinson, Chris Woakes, Matthew Potts and Mark Wood - Mark Wood now becomes so important on this kind of pitch because he is bowling 95 mph, he is a point of difference, and that's one thing Sri Lanka didn't have today. They didn't have the advantage of throwing the ball to someone who's bowling 95 mph on this kind of surface," Vaughan elaborated.

Vaughan reckons Wood will play a big part in Sri Lanka's second innings. He reasoned that even if the speedster is not among the wickets, he will cause damage in the batters' minds.