"We can't lose this series" - Aakash Chopra on India's WTC final qualification scenarios heading into BGT 2024-25 5th Test

Former India player Aakash Chopra has noted that India cannot afford to lose the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) 2024-25 if they harbor any hopes of qualifying for the World Test Championship (WTC) final. He pointed out that while a draw in the fifth Test will knock India out, a win for Australia will seal their place in the final.

Australia beat India by 184 runs in the fourth Test in Melbourne on Monday, December 30, to take a 2-1 lead in the five-match series. The final game will be played in Sydney from Friday, January 3, onwards.

In a video shared on his YouTube channel 'Aakash Chopra,' the former India opener noted that Rohit Sharma's side can keep their WTC final hopes alive only by winning the Sydney Test.

"Our fate is no longer in our hands. We cannot win the series from here. Our hopes will remain alive if we win (the last Test). We can't lose this series. For Australia, if the last match is a draw, they will have to avoid defeat in at least one game against Sri Lanka," he said (9:05).

Chopra added that an Indian defeat in the New Year's Test will make the Australia-Sri Lanka series inconsequential.

"If we lose the Sydney Test and lose the series 3-1, we are out, done and dusted. We will be out of the WTC cycle. Then we have no chance of reaching the final and as soon as we lose the Test match, Australia qualifies. Then the Australia-South Africa final will be confirmed and the Sri Lanka series will not matter at all," he observed.

With 66.67 percent points, South Africa have booked their berth in the WTC final after winning the first Test of their ongoing series against Pakistan. With 52.78 percent points, India are placed third on the WTC points table and are competing with Australia (61.46) and Sri Lanka (45.45) for the other spot.

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"If we win the Sydney Test match and end the series 2-2, Australia shouldn't win even a single match in Sri Lanka" - Aakash Chopra

The last three Sydney Tests between India and Australia have ended in draws. [P/C: Getty]

In the same video, Aakash Chopra noted that India would qualify for the WTC final if they win the Sydney Test and Australia don't win a game against Sri Lanka.

"If we win the Sydney Test match and end the series 2-2, Australia shouldn't win even a single match in Sri Lanka. It's okay if they draw and it's even better if they lose. It's a two-match series and all your hopes will be tied to Australia not winning even one match out of that if you win the game," he said (9:55).

The cricketer-turned-commentator added that Sri Lanka need the Sydney Test to be drawn and a whitewash against Australia to make the final.

"If we win, we are alive courtesy Sri Lanka. The only way for Sri Lanka to qualify is for the last match of the BGT to end in a draw. If India win, they don't have any chance, and if Australia win, no one has any chance. If it is drawn and they beat Australia 2-0, then Sri Lanka can qualify," Chopra observed.

The last Warne-Muralitharan Trophy in Sri Lanka ended in a 1-1 draw in 2022. However, Sri Lanka registered a 3-0 win in Australia's 2016 tour of the island nation and will hope to pull off another clean sweep if the Sydney Test ends in a draw.