Pakistan or Sri Lanka - which team starts Super 4 clash of Asia Cup 2023 as favorites?

Pakistan will take on Sri Lanka in match number five of the Super 4 round of Asia Cup 2023 at the R. Premadasa Stadium in Colombo on Thursday, September 14. The game will be a virtual semi-final as the winner of the contest will face India in the final in Colombo on Sunday, September 17.

The Men in Blue sealed their spot in the summit clash by defeating Sri Lanka by 41 runs on Tuesday thereby eliminating Bangladesh from the final race. Earlier, Team India also hammered Pakistan by a record 228 runs in a rain-affected game at the Premadasa that was played over two days.

Both Pakistan and Sri Lanka have two points from one game, having defeated Bangladesh seven wickets and 21 runs respectively. The Lankans, however, are above Pakistan on the points table.

While Sri Lanka have a net run rate of -0.200, Pakistan’s is -1.892. Thus is in the event of a washout on Thursday, Sri Lanka will progress to the final, while Pakistan will be knocked out. Ahead of the Super 4 contest, we analyze which team will go in as favorites.

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Sri Lanka will be confident despite loss to India

Sri Lanka went down to India by 41 runs in Colombo. (Pic: AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)

Sri Lanka went down to India by 41 runs in a low-scoring match on Tuesday in Colombo. However, despite the loss, there were a few positives for the team - the biggest of all of course being the superb all-round show of Dunith Wellalage.

The 20-year-old was brilliant with his left-arm spin, registering superb figures of 5/40 from 10 overs. And while it’s a fact that the surface at the Premadasa offered a lot of turn, to dismiss big names like Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma, Shubman Gill, KL Rahul and Hardik Pandya should still be seen as a massive achievement.

He was impressive in the field as well, taking two good catches. That was not all. Wellalage stood out with the bat too, contributing a defiant 42* off 46 balls. The youngster looked in a zone of his own and will go into the must-win clash against Pakistan with a lot of confidence. The performance of part-time off-spinner Charith Asalanka (4/18) also stood out.

Sri Lanka, however, would be hugely disappointed with their batting effort against India. This is one area where they will need to show a lot of improvement when they face Pakistan on Thursday. Pathum Nissanka, Dimuth Karunaratne and Sadeera Samarawickrama played poor strokes to give their wicket away.

Dhananjaya de Silva came up with a defiant knock, but gave it away with a nothing stroke, just when his team needed him to carry on and take them past the finish line. For an experienced player, Dhananjaya’s dismissal was hugely disappointing. Will Sri Lanka’s batters lift their game against Pakistan in Colombo?

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Hit by injury, Pakistan remain dangerous

Pakistan have suffered major injury setbacks. (Pic: AP)

Pakistan were handed an embarrassing hammering by India in their previous Super 4 match. In a game that was played across two days due to rain in Colombo, Pakistan conceded 356/2 in 50 overs. They were dismal with the bat as well and were bundled out for 128 in 32 overs, with Kuldeep Yadav running through the line-up with figures of 5/25 from eight overs.

Pakistan’s confidence would definitely have been dented by the huge loss. To make matters worse, they suffered significant injury blows as well. Fast bowlers Naseem Shah and Haris Rauf have been ruled out of the Super 4 match against Sri Lanka due to injuries.

Mohammad Wasim Jr has replaced Naseem, while Zaman Khan has come in for Rauf. Experienced batter Fakhar Zaman has also been dropped and has been replaced by Mohammad Haris. Also, Saud Shakeel has come in for Salman Ali Agha in the middle order, while left-arm spinner Mohammad Nawaz has replaced Faheem Ashraf, who conceded 74 runs against India.

Left-arm pacer Shaheen Afridi also went for 79 runs in the match against the Men in Blue, but that can be considered a one-off. He will be expected to lift his game in the must-win encounter against Sri Lanka.

On paper, and considering Pakistan’s injury woes, Sri Lanka will go into Thursday’s match with the upper hand. However, history is proof that irrespective of the situation, one can only rule Pakistan out at their own peril. Sri Lanka would be well aware of the same.