Road to the Champions Trophy - Analyzing the chances of Pakistan and West Indies to qualify for the tournament

The Champions Trophy; eight of the world’s best ODI sides squaring off for a winner-takes-all tournament. Last year, the once glorified event was in danger of being replaced by a World Test Championship, but was reinstated and is now set to see its eighth edition come to life, come 2017, at the historic grounds of England and Wales.

According to the International Cricket Council (ICC), the top eight teams in the official One-Day International (ODI) rankings on September 30, 2015 will qualify for the tournament, and the top six sides currently, namely; Australia, India, New Zealand, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and England, have sealed their spots in the tournament without breaking a sweat. In an unexpected turn of events, Bangladesh have managed to book their ticket to England, with an upset over favorites India in the recently concluded three-match ODI series 2-1.

This has left the eighth spot up for grabs in a potentially engaging contest between West Indies and Pakistan. Pakistan suffered a much-unexpected setback after Bangladesh shocked the Indian side, which was on tour.

The Indians, who were heavily favored, going into the Zan’Zee Ice Cream ODI series allowed complacency to get the better of them, as the Bangla Tigers, riding on the back of a dream run this year (whitewashed Pakistan at home) emerged victorious, leaving MS Dhoni’s side shell-shocked, to say the least.

The current rankings of the concerned teams, allowing with their match schedule till the September 30 deadline is as follows:

TEAM	ODI RATING POINTS	CURRENT ODI RANKING	MATCHES REMAINING BEFORE DEADLINE
Bangladesh	93	7	3 ODIs v South Africa
West Indies	88	8	1 Tri-Series v Pakistan & Zimbabwe
Pakistan	87	9	5 ODIs v Sri Lanka 1 Tri-Series v West Indies & Zimbabwe

Bangladesh is almost certainly through to the seventh spot with few elimination worries, and this has come richly deserved. Now, although it might seem that the Carribean side is at a disadvantage, having to depend on the results of another team for their own qualification, a closer look would tell us that they actually possess a slight edge over the men in green.

Pakistan are undergoing a rough transition period at present, under newly appointed captain Azhar Ali. Despite thrashing Zimbabwe 3-0, they suffered a similar fate, albeit at the receiving end, against the Bangla tigers. Morale at the Pakistan camp might not be too great, and having to defeat a strong and seemingly settled Sri Lankan side might prove just out of their reach.

That being said, Sri Lanka will be playing their first ODI post-Sangakkara and Jayawardena’s retirements in ODI Cricket and this might work in favor of the Pakistan side. In other words, Pakistan have their work cut out for them. All that they need to do now is to defeat Sri Lanka in the upcoming bilateral series, to grab the remaining spot.

The race between Pakistan and West Indies for Champions Trophy qualification took another interesting turn just a few days ago, when the West Indies Cricket Board(WICB) confirmed a tri-series against Zimbabwe and Pakistan at the latter’s home venue, to be held in August.

The WICB put to rest several speculations regarding the ongoing talks with its Zimbabwean counterpart to organise the series and seems keen on taking matters into their own hands and leave their fate for no one else to decide, other than themselves.

This series might well be a decision-maker for the final berth in the Champions Trophy. Furthermore, the results of the last few matches before the deadline might – with a very slim probability – knock even the seemingly settled Bangladesh side out of contention.

This could happen if the West Indies win every match they play in the tri-series, and Pakistan defeats Sri Lanka convincingly and loses to the Windies in the tri-nation tournament. The Bangladesh Cricket Board has stated that it is preparing a contingency plan to play a series against a free side, if required.

Pakistan should look to win the series against Sri Lanka handsomely, to maximize their qualification hopes while West Indies should win the tri-series undefeated to make the cut.

All in all, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Carribeans have only one thing in mind. Win.