Sachin, Lara, Sangakkara, Kallis, Ponting: Who is the greatest Test match-winner?

Win performance index (WPI)

Brian Lara could start a game in ordinary fashion and end it with magic

Even after comparing these batting greats across all these parameters, it is still extremely difficult to determine who can be considered the best in wins. This is because quantifying the context is highly challenging.

One of the key factors that helps evaluate the performance in wins is the bowling quality faced. Since these batsmen have had long careers (12 years+), I have split the careers into distinct phases.

This is necessary because the bowling quality of teams (bowling average) has varied significantly over the years. For example, Australia had a world-class attack between 1999 and 2007 but went through a rough patch for the next 3-4 years following the retirement of Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne.

Hence the knocks played against the Australian attack of the early 2000s must be ranked higher than the performances against Australia in the later years. The bowling quality is calculated by taking the ratio of the bowling average of the opposition (all teams combined) to the all-time bowling average (31.48 - across all top teams excluding Zimbabwe and Bangladesh).

This bowling quality factor (calculated for each phase) is combined with the number of matches and averaged across the career.

Win performance index = [(BQ1 * M1) + (BQ2*M2) + (BQ3*M3) + (BQ4*M4)]/(M1+M2+M3+M4)

Where BQ represents the bowling quality factor in each phase and M1-M4 represent the number of matches won in each phase.

This analysis puts Lara on top, with a score of 104 followed by Sangakkara (96). Tendulkar, Kallis and Dravid have scores in the 80s while Ponting comes in last with a score of 79. The high scores for Lara and Sangakkara are a result of them playing in weak teams and often coming up against relatively better bowling attacks.

In contrast, Ponting, by virtue of playing in a champion team, often faced attacks that were far less potent. Tendulkar, Kallis and Dravid played in balanced teams that often came up against evenly matched opponents.

Among the batting giants of the last 30 years, Tendulkar, Dravid and Kallis remain the most consistent across all parameters considered. Ponting has had outstanding numbers and has been part of an exceptionally successful team too.

Sangakkara’s stats place him among the very best and remind us how big a void his retirement has left in Sri Lanka’s batting.

Lara, who, depending on his mood, could sway between the sublime and the ordinary in the same game, has terrific numbers in two categories (peer comparison with opposition batsmen, fourth innings ratio) and finishes on top in the win performance index. He might well be considered the player with the greatest impact in wins given his team’s otherwise sorry record in Tests in the last two decades.