So near yet so far - PBKS' IPL 2024 campaign is a more entertaining version of the same movie

How often do we use the 'Law of Average' principle as the base for our sporting predictions to fantasy picks? Yet, try applying it to the Punjab Kings (PBKS) and their somber IPL history only to decipher how 2+2 doesn't always equal 4.

As the sun set on another beautiful evening at the picturesque Dharamsala, PBKS bid adieu to their playoff hopes with another pedestrian showing that felt all too familiar to the franchise's dwindling fans. An eighth loss in 12 outings to the rampaging Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) reopened all the painful memories of the past.

It is already saying plenty that the Punjab Kings will be watching the playoffs for the 15th time in 17 editions. However, the fact that their ouster isn't even remotely surprising anymore paints a sorry picture for the franchise.

Sure, this season felt more entertaining, and a tad more hopeful than the past few. But the number of missed opportunities and heartbreaking endings made it another season of 'So near yet so far' for the PBKS fans.

How ecstasy turned to agony like clockwork for PBKS in IPL 2024

A common theme in a sporting event is how each participating team except the eventual victors can always point to certain winnable games that ultimately ended in defeat.

Yet, PBKS made snatching defeats in close finishes clockwork throughout the IPL 2024 season. After providing fans with false hopes of a renaissance by virtue of a convincing win in the season opener, the side turned back to their old ways in the second match against RCB.

Setting up a daunting target of 177, PBKS had RCB on the mat at 130/6 in the 17th over. But a Dinesh Karthik special of 28 from 10 deliveries doomed them in a final over defeat.

Cut to the next outing against Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) and it was PBKS' turn to gift a dominant position in a run-chase. Chasing 200 for victory, the side was coasting along at 102/0 in the 12th over, only to collapse and fall short by 21 runs.

Following their second consecutive defeat, PBKS did something they rarely did in their painful IPL history - pull off a win from a hopeless position against the Gujarat Titans (GT). But, reverting to the norm did not take long as the side suffered a two-run defeat in the next game against the SunRisers Hyderabad (SRH).

The next three matches ended agonizingly, with PBKS suffering a couple of 3-wicket defeats sandwiched by a nine-run setback against the Mumbai Indians (MI). Finally, the turnaround seemingly began when they pulled off the highest successful run-chase in IPL history by miraculously hunting down 262 in just the 19th over.

A convincing seven-wicket win against Chennai Super Kings (CSK) followed to make their fans believe in the 'Law of Average' theory. However, inevitability resumed as PBKS lost their following two encounters against CSK and RCB to bow out of playoff contention with a couple of league-stage games remaining.

Both matches against the South Indian teams weren't without PBKS fluffing numerous chances at inopportune times with bat and ball. Yet, who is surprised? This very ending has been PBKS for years, and as the famous saying goes - 'You are what your record says'. And that record reads a dismal four wins and eight losses.

The silver lining? While the story and its ending were as predictable as a Rajnikanth Movie, at least this time, the screenplay was also similar to his movies - Entertaining with jaw-dropping moments.

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The RCB defeat - A microcosm of PBKS' IPL turmoil

For fans at the infant stage of watching and following the IPL and even ones befuddled by PBKS' no-shows year in and year out, the RCB defeat was a perfect microcosm of their issues.

Their assistant coach Brad Haddin took the convenient route of blaming the dropped catches of Virat Kohli and Rajat Patidar on ducks for their demise in the post-match press conference.

"100 percent we lost the match because of dropped catches. If we look through the game, we dropped two guys on a duck, and both of them scored big runs. That was where the game was lost. There was not too much difference in the batting and bowling of both teams. The catches we put down cost us the game," said Haddin.

But was it only the let-offs that cost PBKS the game? How about the costly blunders even before the start of the contest?

PBKS made several glaring selection errors in a must-win encounter, bereft of cricketing logic. Forget the numbers and think of what comes to mind when we mention Harpreet Brar. Wouldn't it be his memorable performances against RCB earlier this season and in the past?

The left-arm spinner dismissed Virat Kohli, Glenn Maxwell, and AB de Villiers in 2021 en route to figures of 3/19 in four overs, resulting in a 34-run PBKS victory. In the first meeting between the sides this season, Brar was again the difference maker despite PBKS ultimately losing, with figures of 2/13 in four overs.

The 28-year-old was also one of their high-impact player, evidenced by an economy rate of just 6.54 in their wins compared to 8.20 in losses. Just a game earlier, Brar's 2/17 against CSK helped PBKS pull off a stunning upset to stay alive in the competition.

With all this working for him, Brar was still excluded from the lineup for the RCB clash. Adding insult to injury was watching RCB's spinners turning the game on its head with four wickets between them in six overs.

Furthermore, the PBKS management could not help themselves but provide more fodder to the critics with another baffling move of dropping ace pacer Kagiso Rabada for this crunch game.

While the South African speedster hadn't produced the goods expected out of him through the season, his recent form was promising. Rabada bowled seven overs and conceded only 1/47 in the back-to-back CSK encounters.

And he was among the rare bowlers that had the wood on RCB's star batter Virat Kohli, dismissing him 4 times in the T20 format, three of them in the IPL, with Kohli averaging under 15 at a strike rate of 110. Rabada also enjoyed figures of 2/23 in the first PBKS-RCB clash of the season.

Kohli had averaged over 65 at a strike rate of almost 142 in four games against PBKS since 2022 coming into this contest, including a match-winning 77 off 49 in the first meeting this season. Thanks to these unforgivable moves, the 35-year-old played arguably his best knock of IPL, a 47-ball 92, to propel RCB to a massive 241/7 in 20 overs.

Such blatant mishaps that are easily controllable have historically tormented PBKS, leading to a lack of surprise when they proved to be the death knell for their IPL 2024 chances.

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Shashutosh connection - Tonic that reverses PBKS' future scripts?

Try playing this game with any of the IPL franchises from the present or past and any sporting side around the globe - a player that immediately comes to mind as the soul of that particular team.

A shortlist would be MS Dhoni with CSK, Rohit Sharma with MI, Virat Kohli with RCB, and Michael Jordan with Chicago Bulls, among others. Now try your luck with PBKS, and the search for an answer would take longer than the duration between playoff appearances for the franchise.

Therein lies the primary issue that has hampered the Punjab Kings for years - a lack of identity, structure, habits, and continuity, resulting in fans having nothing concrete to cling to the franchise. While such intangible factors may sound negligible, they usually reveal their ugly heads when a game is in balance or a crisis awakens.

The innate confidence teams and their fans derive from the presence of MS Dhoni, Virat Kohli, or Michael Jordan can never discounted. Sure, one could question Kohli and RCB's empty trophy cabinet. Yet, with auction strategies, selections, and templates as flawed as PBKS', they have still traveled further in most IPL editions, thanks to the intangible factors mentioned above.

Thus, PBKS must establish an identity and a couple of players fans connect to and believe in during dire situations. For the first time since 2014, when Glenn Maxwell, David Miller, and George Bailey helped create an aura for PBKS, two youngsters - Shashank Singh and Ashutosh Sharma had fans similarly excited and opposition sides fearful.

The duo often came out of nowhere, helping PBKS pull rabbits out of the hat in several run-chases to have fans back on the edge of their seats. Did they always come through in those no-win situations? No. But neither had MS Dhoni, AB de Villiers, or Andre Russell once upon a time before constant evolution turned them into magicians and miracle-makers.

Instead of searching for shortcuts to the IPL maze, PBKS would be well-served investing in the two youngsters, who defied their age time and again this season, for fans to start believing again.

Only time will tell if the 'Shashutosh' connection - Shashank Singh and Ashutosh Sharma, turn messiah to reverse PBKS' fortunes from perineal underachievers to IPL dynasty.