The Ashes 2013: 2nd Test - Day 3 predictions

Despite the late strikes at the end of Day 2, Australia will find the going tough on Day 3

It seems as if not a single day of the Ashes can be void of drama. Day 2 was no exception. On a day that 16 wickets fell, DRS made it presence felt (again), and the Lord’s pitch played like it was situated in the subcontinent, England ended the day at 31/3, leading Australia by 264 runs. So what does Day 3 have in store for us? Let’s take a look:

The biggest question on everyone’s mind was: why didn’t Alastair Cook enforce a follow on? This seems to be an especially crucial decision now that England lost quick early wickets at the end of the day. Will this decision cost England dearly? I hardly think so.

Cook’s decision to not enforce a follow on despite having a chance to put Australia in to bat after their dismal score of 128 was a well-thought of move, even if it may not have panned out as expected. The plan must have been to tire and demoralise the Australian bowlers, while ensuring that the English bowlers get some recovery time as well.

England would have hoped to make some quick runs at the end of Day 2, but instead handed the Australians the initiative by losing three very crucial wickets – Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen, and Cook himself. However, I don’t think think this should make too much of a difference, as even if England are unable to make a huge score, they should still be in the driver’s seat if they manage to add another 100 runs to their current score.

But England’s plan will be to bat till tea and make as many runs as possible. A lead of over 500 is what they will be targeting, but I reckon they’ll give Australia a target of around 450. Even though England have lost their top order, they can still add at least a couple of hundred runs considering the depth they have in batting; moreover, a certain Ian Bell is still to come out to bat, and he is likely to make a few runs yet again.

However, England will have to be especially wary of the leg spin of Ashton Agar and Steve Smith – the latter having picked up three key wickets in the first innings – as the pitch is now resembling a dust bowl, and the ball is doing funny things. But I feel they are capable of handling both spin and pace if they play cautiously and try not to score quick runs unnecessarily. Expect England to declare their innings before tea (it seems unlikely that they’ll lose all their wickets on the day), and give Australia a huge target to chase – in the region of 450-500 runs, as I mentioned before.

Graeme Swann will be hoping to add to his wicket tally

Honestly, I have little to no expectations from the Australian batting. As if dealing with the swing and pace of James Anderson and co. wasn’t enough, they now have to deal with Graeme Swann on a turning pitch. Although he was unable to make much of an impact at Trent Bridge, we all know how dangerous he can be on a favourable pitch, and the prodigious turn he produces can give even the best players of spin some serious headaches; this Australian batting line up has some serious problems when it comes to playing spin, and Swann will be smacking his lips at the thought of bowling on this surface.

Having already picked up five wickets in the first innings, he’ll be looking to double his tally for the match. And chances are that he might just be able to do it. Expect Australia to lose some quick wickets at the end of the day.

So, in conclusion, I don’t see Australia finding a way back even though they wrested the advantage from England at the end of Day 2. Personally, I see this match ending in England’s favour on Day 4 itself.