West Indies tri-series 2013: Five reasons why Sri Lanka can win the final

India will be playing Sri Lanka for the 56th time in the last five years, but the familiarity will not come in the way of making the final of the tri-nation tournament an exciting contest.

Sri Lanka have had the misfortune of being involved in two rain-interrupted matches due to which they had to play cricket for three consecutive days, and that would have taken a bit out of their reserves of patience. They will need to recover to their best physical and mental state with the one day of rest that they have before they play India once again at the Port of Spain.

Sri Lanka have won two out of the four games they have played in the tournament. They will take confidence out of the massive victory they scored over India earlier in the tournament even though they slipped the second time they faced them in the last group game. However, it was rather unfortunate as the moisture gained by the surface due to the rain interruption changed the behaviour of the pitch, making it suitable for swing bowling. They need to put that loss behind as quick as possible.

Here is a list of five reasons why Sri Lanka can defeat India to win the tournament:

5. Favourable Conditions

The Sri Lankan spinners will be hoping to exploit the conditions that aid slower bowlers

Sri Lanka do not have a lot of pace in their bowling line-up, although that changes a little with the advent of Shaminda Eranga in the side. But they depend upon the slow-medium pace of Angelo Matthews, and the spin of Jeevan Mendis and Rangana Herath.

The surfaces have been rather slow with the ball stopping a little before coming onto the bat. The ball shows some initial lateral movement that the pace battery can exploit, but taking pace off the ball and employing variations will be preferred method in the middle overs.

4. Performance against India so far

Sri Lanka were defeated in the Champions Trophy semi-final before coming to the tri-series; but they have had the upper hand in the encounters that have been played so far in this tournament.

Sri Lanka destroyed the lacklustre India bowling attack with Upul Tharanga and Mahela Jayawardene scoring centuries. The Indian batting, arguably the best line-up in the one-day format of the game, crumbled in that match for a dismal total of 187. In spite of losing the match eventually, Sri Lanka contained the powerful Indian batting in the last group game with ease. India were 119/3 at the end of almost thirty overs when the match was interrupted.

3. Spin attack

Indian batsmen are the best players of spin in any given conditions, but they have looked unsure against Rangana Herath. The slow left-arm bowler, who has had his share of critics, took two wickets yesterday and was troubling the Indian batting line-up when the rain interrupted his spell. He was equally effective in the previous encounter and finished with figures of 3/37 in 10 overs.

His spin partner in that match, Senanayake, was equally successful picking up 2/46 in his 10 overs. It remains to be seen if Sri Lanka employ both spinners in the final, but that would make the best sense given the battle that has been fought so far.

2. Angelo Mathews

The Sri Lankan captain has made vital contributions in this series and has led from the front. He has contributed with the bat whenever he has had the opportunity, but has made the biggest difference with his bowling effort. He has been very effective with his slow medium pace and picked up four wickets against the West Indies in a match-winning effort.

He is Sri Lanka’s highest wicket taker in the tournament so far and has the best economy rate, giving away just 3.25 runs an over, even trumping India’s miserly Bhuvneshwar Kumar. He gave away just five runs in five overs for one wicket in the rain-interrupted match against India.

1. Top Order Batting

Sri Lanka can depend upon the senior statesmen of the side to get the runs for them in the final against India. Mahela Jayawardene has been amongst the runs ever since he struck a half-century against England in the group stage of the Champions Trophy. He has 177 runs in this tournament so far at an average of just below 45.00.

Kumar Sangakkara, on the other hand, came good when the team needed him the most, playing a gritty innings of 90 of 95 balls against West Indies. Sangakkara and Jayawardene have had to bear the burden of scoring for Sri Lanka for quite some time now, but the pressure was eased a little by Upul Tharanga. His innings of 174 against India was probably his best and he will need to replicate a bit of that effort in the final to give Sri Lanka a fighting chance against India.