ICC Cricket World Cup 2019: A statistical search for the probable winner

The Winners Metric

After extensive statistical analysis and number crunching, a conclusion has been arrived upon.

New Zealand come out with a winners metric of 0.38, which shows they only have a small chance of emerging victorious. While their bowling may have been decent, it is their batting that is severely letting them down with inconsistency and unpredictability.

Pakistan's incredible Champions trophy win in England has been followed by a characteristically long string of inconsistent performances. This is just Pakistan being Pakistan.

While they may have a potent batting lineup and superb bowlers in the form of Amir and Hasan, they have lacked a key ingredient to success, which is consistency. They rode their luck in the Champions Trophy - considering there were only 3 group stage games to play - but things would be difficult for Pakistan this time around with seven games to play before reaching the knockout berth.

Afghanistan need some more exposure to be competitive at the highest level of cricket. While some hopefuls would back their bowling to stun the world's best, their batting needs to improve to support their spin-heavy bowling lineup.

Australia is a tricky case. We must remember that they are defending their trophy they earned is 2015 with a dominating performance against the Blackcaps in the final. Warner and Smith are likely to return and rescue the Tim Paine led team, and given the strength of their fast bowling, you can give them a chance to regain their trophy.

This leaves us with the top three contenders: England, South Africa and India. England and South Africa both have Winner's Metrics of 0.53. While they both look like deep and explosive batting sides, their bowling has been an area of weakness. In addition to this, their ability to handle spin is slightly questionable.

Above all the teams participating this World Cup, there remains one with a standout Winners Metric of 0.81. This is a stunning 0.28 more than anyone else.

There is one team that stands out above the rest

Statistically, India are front-runners to be the eventual winners of the upcoming Cricket World Cup.

India have been the most phenomenal team when it comes to balance between bat and bowl. Their top three has been ruthless, and their bowlers consistent. They can score big runs, they can take wickets and they can contain the opposition.

If there is one chink in India's armor, it is their middle order and their sixth bowling option. But with the depth of Indian cricket today, you would expect Kohli and Co to plug this hole with more than 11 months left for the tournament.