Why South Africa's hold on the No.1 ranking could disappear very soon

Can South Africa retain the ICC Test Championship Mace next year? Maybe not

As another year comes to a close, and teams all over the world near the end of their respective tours, their sights will be new prizes in the next year. The biggest of them all will undoubtedly be the World T20 to be held in India.

Another prize that is waiting is the ICC Test Championship Mace that will be presented in April of next year, to the Number 1 ranked Test team at the end of March - a position currently held by South Africa.

South Africa have held the prestigious mace for two out of the last three years, and they will undoubtedly want to hold on to it some more. But after seeing their poor performances in India, questions have been raised whether they really are the strongest team in the world right now.

With Australia slowly coming back to their yesteryear form, and India playing most of their series at home over the next two years, a shift in the rankings might just be a matter of time. There are several factors which also suggest the same.

Dip in form and challenging times ahead

As South Africa struggle through a long tour of India still without a Test win under their belts, they will be looking back at their team performances in the first three matches.

Though it could be argued that they could not adapt to the rank turners at Mohali and Nagpur, everyone would agree that South Africa collapsed on a good track at Bangalore. Sent into bat, they collapsed for 214 runs after the Indian spinners took their batting order apart.

South Africa’s poor performance in the current series has raised a lot of questions about their temperament

In reply, India proved that the pitch held no demons, making 80/0 until rain washed out the last four days of play. South Africa must seriously reconsider shuffling their batting order as several batsmen have failed to perform.

Newbie Stiaan Van Zyl has looked all at sea against Ravichandran Ashwin and even veteran Faf du Plessis looks uneasy at the middle. Batting stalwart AB de Villiers tried to hit his way out of trouble, but failed to make a difference.

Both Amla and Du Plessis regained some form in the second innings of the third Test, but they must dig deep to avoid yet another loss at Delhi.

South Africa must strive to win the last match of the series to regain the grasp on the Number 1 spot. Before the annual Test championship mace is awarded to Number 1 ranked side in April, South Africa only plays one other Test series - against England at home.

The Proteas will know that they are running out of time to regain the mace and they must work towards winning or at least drawing their remaining matches to make sure they are not dethroned.

The resurgence of the heavy-weights

South Africa’s formidable ascendance to the top was no doubt helped by their strong performances both at home and away from it. But it must also be said that the difference in points between them and other teams was helped by the other’s poor form.

For example, Australia was in a low after a loss in UAE to Pakistan and then the loss in the Ashes to England. Similarly, India was going through one of their worst ever patches after several consecutive series losses away from home, which impacted their position in the points table.

So when South Africa’s competitors went down, the difference between the points obviously went up.

Australia are slowly making their comeback to becoming test cricket’s unbeatables once again

But now, with the revival of the two heavy-weights, South Africa will have problems keeping their number 1 spot. Despite Australia’s loss to England, they have come strongly in the current series to New Zealand with some good performances.

The excellent form of players like David Warner, Steve Smith and Mitchell Starc will undoubtedly help Australia as they go forth, trying to get more series wins under their belts.

After the current series against New Zealand, Australia will return the favour by touring New Zealand in February, which is right before the awarding of the Test championship mace. South Africa can count on the fact that Australia will try their best to get their hands on it.

On the other hand, after a frightful three years away from home, India is finally back in the subcontinent, and they have started things with a bang. Under the new-captain Virat Kohli, they managed to get themselves in a good position against Bangladesh, but rain ruined their chances of a win.

Despite losing the first Test to Sri Lanka, they came back strongly to win the series 2-1. Their Test resurgence continued, and it was South Africa themselves who found themselves sitting ducks as they were outclassed in all three Tests.

After a long period of domination in Test matches, it will be new for South Africa to compete against teams who are performing as well as them. It will be a challenge for them to rise above the others, for the number 1 ranking is at stake.

Emergence of the new players

If Australia and India are clawing back on one side, the emergence of previously silent teams like Pakistan and New Zealand is also a thorn in the side of South Africa.

Teams who only occupied the bottom half of the table so far are now in a rich vein of form, which will worry South Africa to no end as they attempt to keep their position on the Test rankings table secure.

Pakistan has found several quality players in Azhar Ali, Asad Shafiq and Yasir Shah, and they have barrelled past every opposition in their way in the last 16 months or so. Playing in their second-home UAE, Pakistan have beaten Australia, Sri Lanka and England as well as drawing New Zealand, all in the span of a year and a half.

Along with the new players, the old hands have also chipped in, with Younis Khan, Misbah-ul-Haq and Shoaib Malik finding form. Despite not playing at home, Pakistan now sit pretty on the second spot, and it is a massive achievement for them. With almost all their players at the peak of form, Pakistan’s rise to the top seems only a matter of time.

Pakistan have risen to the Number 2 spot despite not playing at home

Perhaps on par with Pakistan in terms of recent performances has been a very good New Zealand side. From being the dark horses in the Test arena, they have put together a good team and have held their own against formidable opponents.

They won a Test series against India at home and then beat West Indies away in 2014. After that, they drew against Pakistan in unfriendly conditions at UAE and managed to beat Sri Lanka at home, rounding off a very successful year for them.

Though they lost the Test series against Australia, they will back themselves to perform in the return tour at home, which South Africa will be wary of.

Apart from them, silent killers like England and Sri Lanka are also breathing down South Africa’s neck, which will not assuage their fears of losing the number 1 spot. South Africa must look to consolidate their position and remain on the top of the table before it is too late.

Relatively poor form over the last 3 years

Every year, as the ICC Test Championship Mace is handed over in April, the final rating system is determined by the form of the team from 36 to 48 months prior. In simpler terms, when the mace is handed over in April 2016, the record of teams from May 2013 to April 2016 is considered to have 100% weight age.

So come April, South Africa’s number 1 position will be determined by how well they have performed over the last 3 years, and it must be said that they were not at their best.

Team	Matches	Won	Lost	Draw	Win %	Points
Australia	29	15	9	5	1.66	17.5
England	32	13	13	6	1.00	16
Pakistan	22	11	7	4	1.57	13
New Zealand	22	9	7	6	1.28	12
Sri Lanka	21	9	8	4	1.12	11
India	22	7	8	7	0.87	10.5
South Africa	18	7	5	6	1.40	10
West Indies	20	4	13	3	0.30	5.5
Bangladesh	14	3	4	7	0.75	6.5
Zimbabwe	6	1	5	0	0.20	1

(Win-Loss Record of all Test playing nations from 01 May 2013 to 29 November 2015)

(Points calculation: 1 point for win, 0.5 for draw, 0 for loss.)

As shown in the table above, South Africa languish in the bottom half of the table in terms of the number of matches won. More than half the table has more points than the Proteas, which may just work against the next year.

Add to the fact that they only have one more series after the tour of India before April, South Africa might just be tipped over the line by a resurgent Australian team.

Hashim Amla will have to address a lot of issues over the next year to make sure South Africa remain at No, 1

It could even be the Pakistan team, who have been close to unstoppable over the last few months, and who might even play two more Test series before April. Eyes are also on the England and Sri Lankan teams, who have quietly gone up in the rankings, as well as India, who are playing at home.

But it has to be said that only a tremendous group performances by all of these teams combined with an abject performance by South Africa can result in them relinquishing their Number 1 spot next year.

Since the margin of points between ranks 1 and 2 is currently 12, South Africa would have to play very badly indeed in the coming 4 months to lose their top spot. But even if the near future is not in danger, it definitely is in the long run.

With teams around them finding their feet in Test cricket, South Africa might have to play some of the best Test cricket of their lives over the next two years to make sure they are still the Number One ranked team in Test cricket.