WTC final qualification scenarios: How India, Australia, South Africa, and Sri Lanka can qualify for the World Test Championship final

South Africa beat Sri Lanka by 109 runs in the second Test, played as part of the ongoing World Test Championship (WTC), at St George's Park in Gqeberha on Monday, December 9. Chasing a target of 348, Sri Lanka were bowled out for 238 as Keshav Maharaj claimed 5-76. Dane Paterson was named Player of the Match for his seven scalps, while Temba Bavuma (327 runs) was Player of the Series.

With the triumph in Gqeberha, the Proteas clinched the two-match Test series 2-0. The hosts had earlier beaten the Lankans by 233 runs in Durban. The result has pushed South Africa to the top position in the 2023-25 World Test Championship (WTC) points table. With six wins, three losses, and a draw from 10 matches, the Proteas have accumulated a points percentage (PCT) of 63.33.

On the other hand, India went down to Australia by 10 wickets in the second Test in Adelaide on Sunday, December 8. The defeat saw them moving down to third position in the WTC points table. After 16 matches, they have a PCT of 57.29. In the wake of the recent results, we take a look at the World Test Championship qualification scenarios from India, Australia, South Africa, and Sri Lanka.

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India (PCT: 57.29)

India's chances of qualifying for the WTC final for the third time in a row have suffered a setback following their 10-wicket loss in Adelaide. As per a report in Cricbuzz, for India to progress to the World Test Championship final without depending on other results, they will need to win two more Tests in Australia and draw the other.

If India beat Australia by a 2-1 margin, the Aussies can finish ahead of them in the points table if they win 2-0 in Sri Lanka. In such a scenario, South Africa can also go past India if they win one of their remaining two Tests against Pakistan.

In the event of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy ending in a 2-2 draw, they will have to hope that both the Australia vs Sri Lanka Tests end in draws. In such a scenario, both India and Australia will finish with a PCT of 55.26 each. However, India will progress by virtue of more series wins (three for India versus Australia's two).

On the other hand, if Australia win even one Test in Sri Lanka after a 2-2 result in BGT 2024-25, they will finish with a better PCT than that of India. As for Rohit Sharma and co., a series defeat in Australia irrespective of the margin will knock them out of the WTC final race.

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South Africa (PCT: 63.33)

South Africa have jumped to the top of the World Test Championship points table with their 2-0 win over Sri Lanka. They have two more home Tests to play against Pakistan. One win will confirm their berth in the WTC final. A 2-0 win could even see them topping the table.

On the other hand, if the Proteas lose both matches to Pakistan, they could finish outside the top two. In such a scenario, both Australia and India can finish above them and Sri Lanka as well if they thump the Aussies 2-0.

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Australia (PCT: 60.71)

Following a brilliant 10-wicket win over India in Adelaide, Australia are now in second place in the WTC points table, with a PCT of 60.71. They were briefly on top of the charts before South Africa beat Sri Lanka in the second Test.

The Aussies need to win two out of the remaining three Tests against India to be sure of a place in the World Test Championship final irrespective of the scoreline of their series against Sri Lanka.

If BGT 2024-25 ends in 2-2 draw, Australia will need to win at least one Test in Sri Lanka so that they can stay above India's PCT. If Australia go down 2-3 to India, they will need to beat Sri Lanka 2-0 to progress to the WTC final without depending on other results.

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Sri Lanka (PCT: 45.45)

Sri Lanka are all but out of the World Test Championship final race following their 2-0 loss to South Africa. Mathematically, they can still make it, but there are too many permutations and combinations at work.

If Sri Lanka beat Australia 2-0, they will finish with a PCT of 53.85. They will need to hope that South Africa lose both Tests against Pakistan and finish with a points percentage of 52.78. In such a scenario, only one between Australia or India can go past Sri Lanka's PCT of 53.85%.

Another scenario in which the Lankans can qualify for the WTC final after beating Australia 2-0 is if South Africa draw at least one match against Pakistan and finish with a PCT of above 55. Also, if Australia go on to win the Border-Gavaskar Trophy by a 2-1 win, both the Aussies (53.51) and India (51.75) will finish below Sri Lanka in the World Test Championship points table.