WTC final qualification scenarios: How India, Australia and Sri Lanka can qualify for the 2025 World Test Championship final

Australia beat India by 184 runs in Melbourne on Monday, December 30 to significantly boost their World Test Championship (WTC) final qualification chances. With the triumph at the MCG, they took a 2-1 lead in the five-match series, making a strong comeback after losing the opening Test in Perth.

The Aussies began their second innings on Day 5 at 228-9. Nathan Lyon was cleaned up by Jasprit Bumrah for his overnight score of 41 as India wrapped up things quickly. However, their batting faltered yet again as the visitors were bowled out for 155, chasing a target of 340. Yashasvi Jaiswal top-scored with 84, but there was not a lot of resistance from the other batters barring Rishabh Pant (30).

The loss at the MCG in the fourth BGT 2024-25 Test has severely dented India's chances of qualifying for the WTC final. With South Africa having already confirmed their berth thanks to their two-wicket first Test win over Pakistan, we take a look at the World Test Championship final qualification scenarios for India, Australia and Sri Lanka.

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India (PCT: 52.78)

With nine wins, seven losses and two draws from 18 matches, India are third in the WTC points table, with points percentage (PCT) of 52.78. They have only one game left in the ongoing World Test Championship cycle, which will be the New Year Test against Australia in Sydney to be played from January 3 to January 7.

To keep their hopes of qualifying for the WTC final alive, India needs to beat Australia at the SCG and level the series 2-2. They will then need to hope that the Aussies do not win any of their two Tests in Sri Lanka. A win in Sydney will see India finish with a PCT of 55.26. If Australia draws both Tests in Sri Lanka, they will also end with 55.26, but India will qualify based on more series wins.

On the other hand, India will be knocked out of the WTC final race if their final Test against Australia in Sydney ends in a draw or a defeat. If that happens, it will be the first time that India will not feature in the World Test Championship final. They finished runners-up in 2021 and 2023.

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Australia (PCT: 61.46)

With two wins in BGT 2024-25, Australia have put themselves in a great position to join South Africa in the WTC final. With 10 wins, four losses and two draws from 16 matches, they are second in the World Test Championship points table, with an impressive PCT of 61.46.

A win at the SCG in the fifth and final Test of the series against India will confirm Australia's berth in the World Test Championship final, knocking out both India and Sri Lanka. If the Sydney Test ends in a draw, Australia will need to draw one of the two Test matches in Sri Lanka to ensure their qualification for the WTC final.

In the event of India getting the better of the Aussies in Sydney, Pat Cummins and co. will need to win at least one of the two Tests in Sri Lanka. By doing so, they can surpass India's PCT of 55.26 and confirm a clash with the Proteas in the final.

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Sri Lanka (PCT: 45.45)

Despite having a poor PCT of 45.45, Sri Lanka are still in with a faint chance of qualifying for the WTC final, provided a few results go in their favor. For the Lankans to qualify for their maiden World Test Championship final, the SCG Test between India and Australia needs to end in a draw. Sri Lanka then need to win both their Test matches against Australia.

In the above scenario, Sri Lanka's PCT will climb to 53.85, while Australia will be stuck on 53.51 and India on 51.75. Sri Lanka can thus qualify for the WTC summit clash as the second finalist ahead of both India and Australia. Incidentally, the last three Test matches between India and Australia in Sydney have ended in a draw, so all hope is not lost for Sri Lanka yet.