2013 Bahrain GP: Does Vettel have only 28.6% probability of winning?

Supporting the Stats

A 5.4 kilometre undulating circuit, 57 laps and high temperatures are the obvious Bahrain features. But for something more enlightening about the country itself, the ever obliging Wikipedia has just marked my card.

Firstly Bahrain, has a few quid; it also has a few people – 1.2 million to be precise. However, more than half of that number are non-nationals.

The country has a chequered history and, resultantly, a 2008 survey showed there were just 37 Jews living on the island country. To balance the books, Bahrain’s king appealed to former Bahraini Jews abroad in the US and UK to return to their motherland, offering them compensation and citizenship.

Bizarrely, the Bahraini weekend is Friday & Saturday and not Saturday and Sunday. Those two days off give you a chance to play football – which is the most popular sport in the country – and find a mate. Not easy if you are gay or bisexual, as those genres are not recognised and apparently don’t exist.

However life expectancy still runs at a respectable 73 years for men and 76 for women. I’m unsure if that’s in any way related to the country’s good roads and shopping malls, or another fact which may make Bahrain’s 295 sq miles attractive to Europeans: In 2007, Bahrain became the first Arab country to offer unemployment benefits.

Compromise

Now, there are a few things during my life which I have always known were not for me: Homosexuality, voting Lib-Dem, joining a cult, taking a package holiday and backing Sebastian Vettel.

But today, the pillars of my life lie shattered. My philosophy is in flux, I’ve backed the German ace and the big question now is, which of my other strict value-systems could fall apart next?

Before you know it, I could be reaching for a holiday brochure even if I’d prefer to have my left ear slowly removed by a cheese grater before going somewhere where bling-clad Brits lie on their Union Jack towels, roasting themselves to a piggie-pink amid the scent of chips, lip-gloss and pints of Fosters.

I don’t understand how former driver turned pundit Johnny Herbert can keep, when prompted, put forward Massa, whose record now stands at 0 wins from his last 70 races, and Mark Webber (3 wins from 49) as his race-win fancies. Then again, I don’t understand why teams run simulators to predict the outcome of a race when me, Nostradamus II, is here willing and able.

Naturally, the heart says Fernando but my head, and every stat in the book, says Sebastian will be storming back to dominance at a track which has repeatedly proved custom-made to his car’s wants and needs.

The odds equate to a 28.6 percent probability. Is Sebastian Vettel’s chances of winning just 28.6 percent? Of course not, especially when you consider:

China 2012: Mercedes engines were all dominant, producing the top three cars on the grid and the top three places on the podium. That included Rosberg, who won the race by 20 seconds. The Red Bulls, which qualified a woeful 7th and 11th, ultimately finished fourth and fifth.

Bahrain 2012: What a difference seven days can make, with Red Bulls qualifying first and third. Vettel went on to win the race and Renault powered cars filled the first four places. Rosberg was beaten into fifth, 55 secs behind his countryman.

There was no Bahrain GP in 2011 but in 2010, the contrast between its results and those of China were abundantly clear once again. In China, run a month after Bahrain on this occasion, the best performing Renault engined car finished just fifth. But in Bahrain, Vettel had the race safely in the bag before a broken spark plug scuppered certain victory.

Vettel was also runner-up in the 2009 Bahrain Grand Prix, conclusively proving the term ‘horses for courses’ does not exclusively apply to equine athletes. In total, Vettel has claimed 22 wins from his last 61 races; 16 wins since the start of 2011 season (a 38 percent strike-rate) and has won five of his last ten outings.

Most importantly, this is his car’s type of track. Hot, undulating, dusty, overtaking is not exactly commonplace, gear changes are high, pitstops aplenty (71 last year), heavy on the breaks. Whatever the factors are, the stars simply seem to line-up for the Red Bull/Renault combination here.

Boasting three previous wins in Bahrain and a car which is brutally fast, my heart still says Fernando’s the man. But he cannot qualify his Ferrari on pole, his equipment just doesn’t work that way. There is also a strong likelihood it may, like the Mercedes, struggle to bring its China form here.

With all factors taken into consideration, Vettel looks at least 40 percent likely to win at this circuit this weekend and therein the head rules out. Prepare to rip the stitches out of the bookmakers’ satchels by backing him at odds way in excess of the probability of him standing on the podium’s top step.