2013 Belgian GP: Spa-Francorchamps - The Holy Grail

Two by elimination

But, when the carbon fibre settles, the reality remains; only Vettel, Hamilton, Alonso, Rosberg and Raikkonen have, and look capable of, winning races this season.

Sebastian Vettel (2nd right) of Germany and Infiniti Red Bull Racing celebrates with his race engineer Guillaume Rocquelin (2nd left), second placed Fernando Alonso (left) of Spain and Ferrari and third placed Lewis Hamilton (right) of Great Britain and Mercedes GP following the Canadian Formula One Grand Prix at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve on June 9, 2013 in Montreal, Canada. (Photo by Mark Thompson/Getty Images)

Raikkonen is very much the gooseberry, always thereabouts, an unwelcome pain in everyone’s side who lingers longer than the smell of kippers, the perennial bridesmaid, only once a bride. My idea of a winner this weekend is quickly narrowed down to four.

I also refuse to entertain the institutionalised pessimism that Sebastian Vettel’s Red Bull will once again disappear into the distance. Au contraire, this gloomy foreplay will surely be confounded at this circuit, a circuit which, last season, saw the Milton Keynes car screaming for speed but found only a rev-limiter in response.

And then there were three. Alonso, twice successful this season; Rosberg also twice victorious; Hamilton who boasts just one race win. Of the latter pair, I cannot fathom why the Englishman is a considerably shorter price than his Finnish/Monegasques/German hybrid team-mate.

I concede Lewis, a 3/1 shot, is likely to perform the better of the duo in his Mercedes, which boasts remarkable qualifying figures of 3-6-4-6-1-4-1-4-1-2-1-2-2-4-1-2-1-11-1-4 and should no longer suffer from ungainly tyre wear (as the cars will be running on last year’s spec boots here).

And then there was one: 32 race wins, a double world-champion, yet never successful in nine attempts here in Belgium. Hola Fernando Alonso. I very much subscribe to that old cliché “form is temporary and class is permanent”, and yet his form is nowhere near as bad as doom-mongers would have you believe.

Ten podiums from his last 15 race starts, two wins this season and arguably the moral victor in Australia where bad strategy calls cost him dearly. Alonso’s recent slump in form has seen him finish third, fourth and fifth in his last three races. It’s not exactly a Williams-style catastrophe, but nevertheless it’s enough to see him readily available for this sojourn around the Ardennes Forest.