2013 Chinese GP Preview: Will Lewis Hamilton have it easy in the race?

Pole sitter Lewis Hamilton celebrates in parc ferme alongside second placed Kimi Raikkonen and third placed Fernando Alonso following qualifying for the Chinese Formula One Grand Prix at the Shanghai International Circuit

After seeing who the two guys are behind him on the grid, the answer leans towards the negative. On the contrary, had he had Rosberg directly behind him just as Rosberg had Schumacher alongside him on the front row last year, then things would become much easier with the 2nd Mercedes not going all out for the lead and risking both cars into the gravel at Turn 1 itself. That being not the case, Hamilton will have a difficult time keeping drivers of super caliber like Kimi Raikkonen and Fernando Alonso – albeit for slightly different reasons.

Kimi Raikkonen and the Lotus are a threat for the lead no matter where they start because of the spectacular tyre-saving ability of the E21. As we know, the Mercedes has inherent problems of tyre wear and that has been a characteristic of all Mercedes cars since their return in 2010. So, even if Hamilton gets a very good start with Raikkonen some way behind due to the dirty side of the grid, things will not be all rosy. But one thing that might play in favour of Hamilton is that the W04 is mega quick in the second sector while the E21 doesn’t have very good downforce levels to take those medium speed corners properly. What this means is that Hamilton might build a gap over 1 second before the DRS activation zone on the long back straight. Not only that, the Mercedes is also very fast down the straights and might be able to defend into the hairpin even after being within being 1 second of the car behind.

Now the other threat: Fernando Alonso. Like Raikkonen, Alonso is always a perennial threat no matter what his grid position is – everyone who saw the race inValencia last year will bear witness to that . While Raikkonen might not be a threat right at the start given the dirty side of the grid and the Lotus cars not being fast starters, Hamilton will have to be wary of the red car right behind him. On many occasions, Alonso has got electric starts and almost went into the lead at Turn 1. In that sense, even Felipe Massa is a dangerous prospect for Rosberg and the top 3 to deal with. But where the Lotus is so strong at conserving tyres, the Ferrari tends to take the life out of its tyres earlier, which will put Alonso on the same footing as Hamilton. Even though the Ferrari might be 0.5-1 kmph down on Hamilton down the straights, Alonso’s Sector 3 laptimes have been extremely good throughout the weekend and that will stand him in good stead against Hamilton in the DRS zone on the pit straight.

Are Raikkonen and Alonso the ONLY threats? Of course not. Another driver who might have a big role to play in deciding the destiny of the race is the guy who starts from 9th after opting not to set a time on the soft tyres so that he can start on the mediums. It is very much expected that Vettel will take over the lead when the front runners pit for mediums very early in the race, but the challenge will be to not lose much time on worn tyres, keeping in mind the Achilles’ heel stint on the soft tyres at the end of the race. One should not count Mark Webber out of it also, given that he can take the chance of starting from the pitlane with his car tuned for more straightline speed to take full advantage of DRS, just like Vettel in Abu Dhabi last year.

For all the drivers up and down the grid, the most important thing will be how long they can make the soft tyres last and ultimately that might be the difference between winning and not being on the podium. But if one overshoots a stint, then even earning a point will be difficult, just as Raikkonen experienced here last year.

When asked whether the race would be an intriguing one, Fernando Alonso put it perfectly “For you, yes, but for us it will be very stressful!”