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Last season, how realistic did it appear that Sergio Perez would win the Azerbaijan GP? Or to see Daniel Ricciardo in 2017, crash his car in qualifying, start the race in 10th, make an early pitstop, drop down to 17th, and then win the race? Not much, right? The point is, when it comes to the Azerbaijan GP, it's Christmas for someone special!
Other than the 2019 iteration, which was a bit of a dud by normal Baku standards, the Azerbaijan GP has thrown up one surprise after the other in all these years. A straightforward race and a similar result here are highly unlikely. So if we sit down and make any predictions about this race, trust us, they're BOLD!
So let's get to the main part of this piece and dish out our 5 bold predictions for the F1 Azerbaijan GP!
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#5 Daniel Ricciardo will have another disappointing race
Daniel Ricciardo loves Baku. The love affair that started with the 2017 race is still there! At the moment, however, the Australian is in a precarious situation with McLaren. Following Zak Brown's outburst, it's hard to see Ricciardo continuing beyond the 2022 F1 season with the team. Simultaneously, the 32-year-old still needs to prove his worth not only to himself but to the paddock as well.
Ricciardo's struggles this season have been a bit of a mirror image of last year. He suffered massively at Monaco last season and did so this time as well. Ricciardo is just not comfortable with the car characteristics in the slow-speed sections, and even in Baku last season, he had a tough time keeping up with Lando Norris.
Ricciardo is desperate to put on a good showing at the Azerbaijan GP this time. Should he be limited by the car this weekend, which he most probably will be, then he won't be able to do much in terms of results. We might be looking at another disappointing weekend for Daniel Ricciardo yet again.
#4 Points for Sebastian Vettel, but not much progress for Aston Martin
The last few races at Imola and Monaco have shown Sebastian Vettel punching above the weight of the car. Meanwhile, Aston Martin has brought in a completely new design for its car. The new car, although appearing as a replica of the Red Bull, hasn't shown the expected improvement in speed.
Sure, the Spanish GP was the very first race with the car and the Monaco GP saw rain that made things complicated. Looking at the positions where Lance Stroll often finds himself, it just shows that the new car is not much of an improvement.
The team now returns to the site of its only podium in 2021 (as the second one in Hungary was taken away). At the Azerbaijan GP, expect another points finish for Sebastian Vettel, but concurrently, it's difficult to expect Aston Martin to progress and unlock a silver bullet in the third race of its new concept.
#3 Impact of new regulations will be more pronounced in this race
The race at Baku has been notorious for being a bit of a slow burner at the start. This used to be the case in the previous set of regulations as it was a bit of a headache to follow another car in the slow-speed sections. The cars used to lose ground in Sector 2 and would be too far behind by the time they reached the long straight in Sector 3.
With the new regulations, cars are now much easier to follow. Consequently, they will not lose ground in S2 and ultimately we can expect an increase in activity in an already action-packed race.
While it's hard to predict exactly how much of a difference the new cars will make, we could see a return to the kind of racing we saw in the Saudi GP where we witnessed multiple DRS overtakes with cars being able to fight back after being overtaken. Brace yourself, folks! This one is going to be fun!
#2 At least one Mercedes car will end up on the podium
Everyone will be keeping an eye on Mercedes this weekend. The car's transformation in Barcelona was almost spectacular. It wasn't bouncing anymore and was rather impressive in the straights and the fast-speed sections. Overall, in terms of race pace, what Lewis Hamilton was able to do in that car was a bit of a surprise. Although not as quick as Max Verstappen or Charles Leclerc, his speed was still in the ballpark.
We have now reached the Azerbaijan GP this weekend. While the race at Monaco was a bit of a step back for Mercedes, it should be back to its Barcelona form in Baku.
The middle sector is going to be troublesome for the slightly unconventional Mercedes design and its deficiency in the slow speed sections, but the car should come alive in S1 and S3 with all those long straights and fast speed sections. While it would be a step too far to consider either Hamilton or George Russell challenging for pole position, a podium is not out of reach. Expect to see at least one of the Mercedes drivers on the podium for the Azerbaijan GP.
#1 Max Verstappen will dominate and win Azerbaijan GP
Since the Monaco GP, there has been a lot of buzz around Sergio Perez and the fact that he outperformed Max Verstappen over a weekend for the first time at Red Bull. Perez won the race while the Dutchman was third. Now, all the praise is well deserved, and it is hard to ignore that Perez is only 15 points behind Verstappen in the championship.
Many pundits have even gone a bit overboard with suggestions that Perez could even be a championship contender this season. To an extent, it's not wrong to give props to the Mexican for his performances so far this season. He has been there or thereabouts when it comes to the ultimate pace of the car. While it's completely justifiable to say that Perez has upped his game, all this talk around Verstappen's teammate is only going to fire up the reigning world champion.
The Dutchman is arguably the best driver on the grid at the moment, and lest we forget, Perez still took 7 races with all his improvements to beat him for the first time.
Verstappen has been a bit off-color in the last couple of races. Neither Barcelona nor Monaco were his absolute best performances. So expect the reigning champion to make a statement this weekend as he will not only win but dominate his teammate at the Azerbaijan GP. This will be aided by the fact that the Baku track layout favors Red Bull over Ferrari with its long straights.
