2022 F1 Azerbaijan GP: Qualifying predictions

The qualifying session of the Azerbaijan GP could play a crucial role in deciding who is going to win the race this Sunday. This is because even though the track is notorious for its unpredictability and its ability to throw a curveball when it is least expected, with two cars so evenly matched, track position could play a huge role in handing over the much-needed initiative.

So, having said that, let's find out what to expect when you tune in to the qualifying session. In this piece, we sit down, rattle our Formula 1 brains, and try to predict what's going to happen in the Azerbaijan GP qualifying.

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Disappointment of the session (Team)

There was a lot expected of Mercedes after its performance in Barcelona. At the Spanish GP, the bouncing was gone, the car was fast, and its drivers Lewis Hamilton and George Russell were contenders again. We have now reached Baku, a track whose straights were supposed to provide an advantage to Mercedes going by its speed in Barcelona. What we have here, however, is a Mercedes that is more than 20 kmph slower than the Alpine of Fernando Alonso.

During the Azerbaijan GP, there could be a possibility that either of the two Mercedes drivers might not make it to Q3. If that happens, that would certainly end any kind of hope Toto Wolff would have had of a championship challenge.

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Disappointment of the session (Driver)

There's only one driver that seems to have expectations that just cannot be surmounted. Daniel Ricciardo is expected to go up against a sensational talent like Lando Norris and beat him in a car that the Australian is just not comfortable in.

That has been the story of the partnership between McLaren and Ricciardo and it's starting to crack. Neither the team nor the driver has been able to find a happy spot and that does look to be the case at the Azerbaijan GP weekend as well. During the practice sessions, Ricciardo was 3 tenths down on Norris. In F1 terms, that's 4-5 spots below his teammate. Although it does not bring anyone joy to say this, brace yourself for another disappointing session for the Australian.

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Surprise of the session (Driver)

It seems Yuki Tsunoda is starting to figure out F1. The driver has been much more consistent this season. Even in comparison to the much-touted Pierre Gasly, Tsunoda has more or less held his own.

The Azerbaijan GP FP2 session ended with Tsunoda 2 tenths down on his teammate, but the Japanese driver will be worth keeping an eye on. Tsunoda is starting to show how good he can be this season and he might surprise a few people along the way.

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Surprise of the session (Team)

Aston Martin might not have made the kind of jump many would have expected when they saw the Red Bull replica arrive in green overalls at Barcelona. Slowly but steadily, however, the team seems to be making consistent progress. Aston Martin did not look like the 9th fastest car on the grid this time around as Sebastian Vettel was almost always in the mix with the McLarens and the Alfa Romeos.

The session ended with Vettel in 11th and his teammate Lance Stroll in 13th. A slipstream here, a slipstream there, and who knows, we might see an Aston Martin in Q3 of the Azerbaijan GP qualifying.

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Top 3 in Azerbaijan GP qualifying

If there is one driver that needs to be kept an eye on tomorrow, then it is Sergio Perez. His speed in the Red Bull has looked menacing every time he has been on the track. What's even more impressive is that he appears to have an upper hand over reigning world champion Max Verstappen over a single lap. Looking at the current form, it won't be a surprise if Perez challenges for Pole Position and even secures it.

When it comes to picking the top-3 for the Azerbaijan GP qualifying, it is once again a shootout between the two Red Bull and two Ferrari drivers. Out of these four, Sainz seems to be the odd one out and will miss out on the top-3.

In Baku, it's tough to pick who will score pole position because, unlike other tracks, Ferrari does not hold a distinct advantage over a single lap. Gun to the head? We're going with Sergio Perez on pole position with Charles Leclerc second and Max Verstappen third.