2022 F1 Belgian GP: Top 5 Bold Predictions

The summer break is over and we have the F1 Belgian GP kicking things off for the second half of the season. The first half was pretty good. There have been good races, and the action in the midfield is captivating because of how close everyone is to each other.

There is certainly quality in the midfield that we have not had before. We can even say that the battle in the midfield between Alpine and McLaren is arguably more interesting than the battle at the front.

Having said that, after a long summer break, we are back with the F1 Belgian GP. So, what can we expect from the race? Well, let's find out as we don the "F1 Fan" hat and give our predictions for the 2022 F1 Belgian GP.

#5 We could see some gambles with the strategy paying off

Now, when we talk about the F1 Belgian GP, the track is not known for having tire strategy play a huge role in a race. More often than not, it's the regular one-stop strategy because of the amount of time lost while changing tires during the pitstop. There is, however, a huge possibility of rain disrupting the proceedings during the Belgian GP.

One of the key features of the Belgian GP is that the track is huge. It is so big that some parts of the track could be wet because of rain while the other part could be bone-dry. What this does is it makes the choice of tires not only critical but complex as well.

The dry section of the track would require slicks, but the wet part could see the car spin into the wall if the tire temperatures are not sufficient. On the other hand, if a driver opts for wet or intermediate tires, they could wear out in the dry sections of the track and become completely useless in the wet part.

To add to this, being on the right tire at the right time could help you gain significant time in the race and even help score a surprise podium as well. We saw an example of this in the 2008 F1 Belgian GP.

Everyone remembers the race for the post-race Lewis Hamilton penalty. But, in that very race, Nick Heidfeld chose the perfect time to pit for intermediate tires and ended up finishing P2 in the race after being P9, just two laps from the end.

Rain is forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. If we have rain causing a disruption, we could see a driver making the right choice by pitting at the perfect time and producing a freak result out of the bag.

#4 Mick Schumacher will have a strong weekend

Now, not many people would be a fan of this prediction. Mick Schumacher has received a lot of flak from the fans this season and if we are honest, he deserves it.

This is his second season in F1. After a year of learning, he was supposed to be the lead driver at Haas. Not only that, he was supposed also supposed to hold a clear buffer over his teammate, especially when it is someone that has been out of the sport for a while.

That clearly has not happened. Even though in the last few races, Mick Schumacher has made a comeback of sorts, in its entirety, Kevin Magnussen had the better first half of the 2022 F1 season.

There is, however, one theme that has been consistent with Mick Schumacher. It has been his ability to start reaching his peak performance a year and a half into a series. He did that in Formula 3 and took the championship away from Dan Ticktum. He did that again in Formula 2 where initially he was not the frontrunner for the title.

He heads to the F1 Belgian GP slightly under pressure due to rumors of Daniel Ricciardo replacing him at Haas. In our view, this is the perfect time for Mick Schumacher to start making an impact in F1. He's done it before and he's shown glimpses of it already this season. We're backing Mick Schumacher to have a strong F1 Belgian GP this weekend!

#3 McLaren and Aston Martin are going to struggle in dry conditions

Both Aston Martin and McLaren have had their share of good and bad races. There is, however, a clear theme to their results as well. Both the teams had a good outing in Monaco, a track that is slow to medium speed in nature. At the same time, both the teams had a pretty average outing in Austria, a track where top speed and fast speed corners are very common.

McLaren has admitted that the car carries excess drag in a straightline. Sebastian Vettel too has revealed that Aston Martin suffers from a weakness in the fast-speed corners.

Coming to the track layout, the F1 Belgian GP demands cars to have not only good top speed but also great fast-speed efficiency.

Now, if it rains, then that's a completely different story because then anything can happen. If it doesn't, then expect both these teams to struggle this weekend.

#2 Mercedes will continue to be the third fastest car on the grid

A lot has been made of the new technical directive issued by the FIA. With both Ferrari and Red Bull forced to make changes to their cars, there is an expectation that Mercedes could join the fight at the front. There are some that even suggest that Mercedes could overthrow Red Bull and Ferrari in terms of performance at the F1 Belgian GP.

In all of this, one thing that has been completely forgotten is the car characteristics of the Mercedes. To find out where Mercedes do well and where they don't, all we need to do is look at the last few races.

In the last few races since Mercedes has cured its bouncing/porpoising issues, it has performed well on tracks like Hungary, Silverstone and France. Hungary is a slow-medium speed track in nature. Silverstone's S1 and S3 have a chunk of slow-medium speed corners. And finally, at Paul Ricard, S1 and S3 also has quite a few slow-medium speed corners.

If, on the other hand, you look at tracks like Austria and Canada, where Mercedes struggled, these two tracks put a premium on straightline speed. Even Toto Wolff has claimed that the Mercedes generated too much drag on the straights.

If we talk about the F1 Belgian GP track, then most of the time is spent on a straightline. Both Ferrari and Red Bull have shown a clear advantage over Mercedes in that department.

This is why, despite a lot of noise around Mercedes finally becoming a contender, we don't expect to see that on a track like Spa. We might have to wait until Zandvoort next weekend to see what kind of gains Mercedes has made with the technical directive on the planks underneath the car.

Now, this does not mean that Mercedes cannot score a podium or even a win. They can do that, but it might just be a result of a great strategic move when or if it rains during the race. Or it might also come if Ferrari commits another strategic disaster or Red Bulls suffer a reliability issue.

#1 Max Verstappen wins the 2022 F1 Belgian GP

In terms of performance in the F1 Belgian GP, what we expect is a close battle between Ferrari and Red Bull at the front with Mercedes just a step behind. Ideally, we're predicting a close battle between Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen for the win.

We lean towards Max Verstappen because of two factors.The first is the straightline speed advantage of Red Bull. Even though we saw Ferrari close that gap in Austria, it should still be significant enough in the straights of Spa. When the two drivers are racing to win the F1 Belgian GP in similarly paced cars, the advantage should ideally go to a driver that has better straightline speed.

The second factor why we feel Max Verstappen would win the F1 Belgian GP is because there appears to be a very high possibility of rain during the race. If it rains, it's going to bring the strategic unit of both teams and the wet weather acumen of both the drivers into play. Now, when that happens, we can't help but hand the advantage to Max Verstappen.

Hence, even though we predict a very tight battle between Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc, we back the defending champion to take home the first-place finish in Belgium this weekend.