2022 F1 French GP: Preview and Predictions

The 2022 F1 French GP will be the 12th race of the season and by the looks of it, slowly but steadily, things seem to be ramping up in the championship battle. Charles Leclerc has cut down Max Verstappen's championship lead by 11 points in the last two races, while Ferrari is on a 2-race win streak after ending Red Bull's 6-race win streak. The race in Austria was a statement of sorts for the Italian squad as it dominated the weekend.

The F1 circus now heads to Circuit Paul Ricard for the French GP this weekend with rumors circulating about the race losing its spot for the 2023 season. With that being said, there's a lot at stake this weekend. Teams will push through upgrades in probably the final raft of major changes to the cars for the season and that could have an impact on what the pecking order could look like.

The upcoming race will have a lot in store after two weekends with emotionally charged fans (and a whole lot of controversy). So, what can we expect this weekend? Let's jump straight to the preview and predictions for the 2022 F1 French GP to find out!

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2022 F1 French GP: Preview

Key storylines

#1 Upgrades! Upgrades! Upgrades!

The 2022 F1 French GP might just be the last race where we see a raft of changes in the cars. There have already been teams that have made notable changes this season, especially Williams and Aston Martin with their Red Bull-inspired upgrades. Others like Haas, however, are yet to put a single piece of upgrade on the car.

Two more standouts this weekend in terms of upgrades are going to be Haas and Mercedes. Both teams will be bringing sizeable upgrades and hoping that these changes deliver the desired jump in performance that the teams are looking for. Mercedes will be desperately hoping that the upgrades bring the team closer to the top two teams, while Haas will be hoping for just the boost they need to make significant improvements for the rest of the season.

#2 The ever crucial juncture for the championship

For Charles Leclerc and Ferrari, there is still some momentum, albeit imperfect, that the team has gained over the last couple of races. Ferrari did have a dominant speed advantage over Red Bull in Austria but it could more or less be put down to a lack of proper set up which resulted in tire degradation for the latter.

What we have found out, however, is that this season, it's hard to pick which team will perform better over a race track because the performances are starting to converge. For Charles Leclerc and Ferrari, though, this weekend is crucial. The team is riding on a 2-race win streak. Leclerc needs to build on that momentum this weekend and target another race win.

#3 Can the F1 French GP deliver?

The 2023 F1 calendar is rumored to have dropped the French GP and the Belgian GP from next season. While there are suggestions that Spa will be back on an alternate season basis, Circuit Paul Ricard might be on its way out of the calendar.

One reason behind this is the outrage caused by Spa losing its spot on the calendar but a rather lukewarm reaction for Paul Ricard. This just showed that fans were not too bothered if the French GP stayed on the calendar or not.

To be honest, Paul Ricard has not produced too many spectacles since returning to the calendar. Apart from the classic last season, racing here has been rather uninspiring. On what possibly looks like its last F1 hurrah for some time, it will be interesting to see if the French GP can deliver a good one as it bids adieu to the sport.

Form Guide

On Form

Charles Leclerc's win at the 2022 F1 Austrian GP was a rousing return to form, and the podium, for the Ferrari driver. In terms of performances, Leclerc has not put a foot wrong but the Monegasque has been rather unfortunate as things have gone against him one race after the other.

At the Spielberg race, Leclerc showed that he can match up to Max Verstappen and even beat him if given the right machinery. At the 2022 F1 French GP, the Ferrari driver will be looking to build on that momentum.

Out of Form

McLaren is in trouble of getting somewhat exposed this season. The team has maintained a strong and respectful stature in the last two seasons as the gatekeepers of the midfield. This season, however, after assuming the throne once again after the first few races, it appears to be slipping away. Alpine has been bringing upgrades relentlessly while McLaren seems to be stuck in the mud.

The two teams are now level on points and with Alpine scheduled to bring in another upgrade, McLaren might get thrown back into midfield obscurity after what has been an impressive rise in the last few years.

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2022 F1 French GP: Predictions

Who wins the race?

The track layout at Circuit Paul Ricard should suit Red Bull with its long straights and fast-flowing sections. At the same time though, Europe is suffering from an extreme heat wave and the temperatures will be soaring on the race track.

Considering the soaring temperatures and the somewhat abrasive nature of the track surface (as was evident last season), tire degradation could be an issue.

While Red Bull showcased excessive tire wear in Austria, part of it was due to colder conditions. At the 2022 F1 French GP, that's not expected to be the case as soaring temperatures could play into the hands of teams like Red Bull and Mercedes. Hence, if we have to pick the winner for the 2022 F1 French GP, Max Verstappen might just be the one to put your money on.

Surprise of the weekend (Team)

Aston Martin has struggled in qualifying recently but the team does have a strong race car. More importantly, a team with a smart racer like Sebastian Vettel can excel on tracks like Paul Ricard, where temperatures are soaring and tire degradation is expected to be a factor.

The situation seemed dire for Aston Martin at the 2022 F1 Austrian GP, but keep an eye on the team to turn things around at the 2022 F1 French GP this weekend.

Surprise of the weekend (Driver)

Esteban Ocon has been scoring points consistently for his team, probably doing a better job on that front than his teammate Fernando Alonso. If we look at it purely performance-wise, however, Ocon is struggling against Alonso!

As soon as the weekend starts, the Spaniard is on rails with his Alpine. Meanwhile, Ocon takes time to get on top of the car and is still maybe a tenth or two down on Alonso by Q3. This weekend, however, is Ocon's home race, so expect him to put together something impressive in front of the French fans. The Alpine driver is going to be the best of the rest at the 2022 F1 French GP!

Disappointment of the weekend (Team)

AlphaTauri is on a downward slope. The weekend at Baku revealed two important things. The first was that the team had a strong car in that particular layout. Second, subsequent weekends have shown that AlphaTauri is not a strong overall package. Compared to the heights of a podium it reached last season, even a points finish looks like a handful this time around.

The track at Paul Ricard is not going to be an exception as the Faenza-based outfit has another disappointing race.

Disappointment of the weekend (Driver)

There are certainly similarities between the fast-flowing nature of the track layout for the French GP and the Spanish GP. Remember what happened in Barcelona? Daniel Ricciardo had a disaster of a race. The Australian is under pressure at McLaren. And every day there is a new name that gets associated with his seat for next season.

Unfortunately for him, his problems with the car's design philosophy mean that he is going to struggle at certain tracks. The track for the 2022 F1 French GP is certainly one where Ricciardo struggles. Keep an eye on another race weekend where the Australian tries to catch his own tail.