2022 F1 Italian GP: Qualifying Predictions

F1 Grand Prix of Italy - Practice
Charles Leclerc might be looking to turn back the clock by 3 years

The first day of running for the 2022 F1 Italian GP weekend is now done and dusted. What we have with us are two sessions that were topped by Ferrari drivers. Max Verstappen was still lurking in the top 3 but he has a 5-place grid penalty that could make things interesting at the start of Sunday's race. Wouldn't it be fun to see Charles Leclerc turn back the clock and win it for the Tifosi? Like he did in 2019? Well, it would be amazing to watch.

We're not here, however, to talk about the race on Sunday! What we're here for is to dust off that crystal ball and predict what fans can expect from the 2022 F1 Italian GP qualifying. So without further ado, let's get straight to it.


Disappointment of the session (Team)

Remember the spectacular P8 qualifying that Mick Schumacher pulled off at Zandvoort for Haas? Don't expect that to happen for the 2022 F1 Italian GP. Haas struggles on low downforce tracks and the car looks uncompetitive around Monza.

It was the same old story from Spa, where Haas was arguably the slowest car on the grid. This time around as well, Haas might just be the slowest car as Alex Albon is running on something special in that Williams.


Disappointment of the session (Driver)

Daniel Ricciardo's form in the last few races is starting to warrant a discussion over whether the Australian should even see out his contract at McLaren. The driver is nowhere compared to Lando Norris, and while Norris is a brilliant driver, more than half a second is a ridiculous gap against your teammate.

Lando Norris' lap in the second free practice was something that should have caught Alpine off guard, and that was certainly something special. Looking at the trend, however, the 2022 F1 Italian GP qualifying is going to be another session where Norris blows the Australian out of the water.


Surprise of the session (Team)

We do have two contenders for this one. One of them is Williams, essentially a backmarker that comes alive in a low downforce setup and the other is McLaren. Williams is a team that we feel is going to be the dark horse of the session as the car is as quick as, if not quicker than, any other car in the first sector. The second and third sectors are where the car loses time but even then, expect a surprise or two from the Grove-based squad.

Speaking of McLaren, the team was not expected to have a stellar run this weekend in the low downforce arrangement of Monza. Well, looking at the lap Lando Norris pulled off in FP2, McLaren is right there in the hunt with Alpine and could pose a challenge in qualifying and subsequently in the race as well.


Surprise of the session (Driver)

One of the toughest jobs in F1 is making an impact and all the positive noise despite driving a backmarker. George Russell was somewhat able to do it time and again at Williams, Mick Schumacher failed at it at Haas last season, and Alex Albon succeeded spectacularly at it. The driver has made the most of the opportunities that have come his way and he has made the most of a weekend where he has a car capable enough of scoring points.

At the 2022 F1 Italian GP, the Williams has an outside chance of doing well, keep an eye on Alex Albon as he pulls off something spectacular on Saturday.


Top 3 in 2022 F1 Italian GP qualifying

Before the 2022 F1 Italian GP weekend started, pundits were expecting Max Verstappen to hold a distinct advantage over Ferrari and Mercedes. When it comes to Mercedes, the car is either there or thereabouts in the race trim but lacks a few tenths on a single lap. Ferrari, however, is a special case because on evidence, the Italian squad appears to have a car that can challenge Red Bull with.

Overall, in terms of performance, it's safe for Max Verstappen to still have a tenth or two maybe over the Ferrari drivers as his fastest lap was somewhat compromised after he flat-spotted the tire on his first run. Having said that, the Red Bull driver looked to have a much healthier lead in FP1 but has been reeled back in by Ferrari.

With Sergio Perez struggling and Mercedes nowhere close on a single lap, the top 3 qualifiers for the 2022 F1 Italian GP (before the grid penalties kick in) will be Charles Leclerc, Carlos Sainz, and Max Verstappen. Having said that, the pole position is going to be very close and could come down to the tow a driver gets on his final lap.

The pole position requires perfect execution and everything working perfectly for the driver. Whenever it goes beyond just driver ability and teamwork has to play a big role, Verstappen tends to pull away.

For Ferrari's home race, keeping the sentiments aside, we're going with Max Verstappen to score pole position (before the grid penalty) for the 2022 F1 Italian GP.

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Edited by Anurag C
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