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The first day of running at the 2022 F1 Japanese GP is now done and dusted, and what we have is a very interesting 150 minutes of broadcast to look back at. The first 60 minutes of FP1 were not as representative since not many teams did much running. The next 90 mins of FP2, however, revealed quite a few things.
We had a Mercedes 1-2, and a Red Bull 3-4 (Deja Vu, anyone?). Ferrari was there as Charles Leclerc finished 11th after recovering from a few reliability gremlins.
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In qualifying, the conditions will be different. Saturday is expected to be dry and that should throw a spanner in the works as well. How would the teams fare then? Who would be on pole? Well, let's find out in our predictions of the F1 Japanese GP Qualifying.
Disappointment of the session (Team)
Haas opted not to repair the car in time for FP2 after Mick Schumacher crashed it at the end of FP1. The team reasoned that the timeframe was simply not enough to make that happen. While there might be truth to it, the German will have just one hour in FP3 to prepare for the 2022 F1 Japanese GP qualifying.
Additionally, Haas needs a strong 2022 F1 Japanese GP. The team has seen itself plummet in the championship standings lately and the car performance has also not been something to boast about. Although the conditions on Friday were not as indicative, the team might find itself on the back foot in qualifying.
Disappointment of the session (Driver)
Daniel Ricciardo is riding the high of the P5 position in Singapore but Suzuka might not be a track that works to his liking. The Australian has been able to get close to Lando Norris on low downforce tracks. There might, however, be a problem when it comes to the high downforce ones, where confidence in the car is key.
McLaren should be there in terms of performance but expect Daniel Ricciardo to have a disappointing qualifying session on Saturday.
Surprise of the session (Team)
One key aspect that appears to be a differentiating factor on this track has been its affinity for cars that are kinder to their tires. Mercedes has been notorious for that all season and has been able to do most of it on the first day of running. The energy-intensive S1 with the Senna esses is very hard on tires, and it works to the benefit of cars that are kinder on their wheels.
Amongst the frontrunning group, Mercedes is the kindest on its tires and has hence struggled in qualifying. The same fate has been dealt to Aston Martin in the midfield. The car is quick, but because it is kinder on its tires, there is a significant divergence in qualifying and race pace.
For the 2022 F1 Japanese GP, however, this trait is going to work like a charm even in the dry. One can expect a top-10 result from Aston Martin on Saturday.
Surprise of the session (Driver)
Sebastian Vettel has been one of Suzuka's beloved F1 drivers and the love that he's getting this weekend is heartening to watch. The German is in good form coming into the 2022 F1 Japanese GP. He has a points result in the bag from the last race. Heading into qualifying, he should have a strong car underneath him.
Although Aston Martin is still clearly a step behind both McLaren and Alpine, the P6 slot is where it has resided in the last few races. With conditions somewhat in favor of Aston Martin on Saturday, expect the gap to close up a bit and Sebastian Vettel to qualify inside the top 10 for the 2022 F1 Japanese GP.
Top 3 in 2022 F1 Japanese GP qualifying
Mercedes might have shown an impressive run of form on the first day but questions remain over how the car will perform in the dry. It also needs to be seen if the long-run speed translates effortlessly to a one-lap pace.
For now, it can be concluded that Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes are going to be very close to each other. The key point of differentiation for all three would be how they can keep the tires alive by the third sector.
If we have to pick the top three, however, they will be the best drivers from each of the three teams – Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton, and Charles Leclerc. Since Red Bull has been the more versatile package amongst all of them, we're going with Verstappen to score pole position for the F1 Japanese GP.
We're predicting Ferrari will struggle to keep the tires alive. Hence, we expect Hamilton to line up on the front row with Leclerc in P3.
In terms of predictions, we have Max Verstappen on pole, Lewis Hamilton on P2, and Charles Leclerc on P3 for the 2022 F1 Japanese GP.
