2022 F1 Japanese GP: Race Predictions

Max Verstappen picked up pole position for the 2022 F1 Japanese GP after an intense qualifying session. The Red Bull driver's first fast lap was good enough to top the timesheets and then survived a penalty scare to retain his grid position. He will be accompanied on the front row by Charles Leclerc with Carlos Sainz and Sergio Perez on the second row.

In what was a somewhat surprising turn of events, both Mercedes drivers were out-qualified by Esteban Ocon, who will start the race in P5. Lewis Hamilton will start the race in P6 while George Russell will be in P8. Sebastian Vettel, racing in what seems to be his last F1 Japanese GP, will be starting the race in P9 and hoping to score some points.

So, what can we expect from the main race? Who is going to win the race? Who will have a bad one? Find out as we share our race predictions for the 2022 F1 Japanese GP.

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#1 Max Verstappen wins the 2022 F1 Japanese GP

Having survived a penalty scare, Max Verstappen is the favorite to win the race as prevailing conditions appear to be in favor of the Red Bull driver at the moment.

Whether it rains tomorrow or stays dry, Red Bull should be competitive. Additionally, there is an added factor in tire wear during the race. The track is very aggressive when it comes to tire wear and we're going to see that in the race as well. Red Bull has shown an ability to be kinder on its tires than Ferrari and that should play a role.

Overall, irrespective of the conditions involved, Max Verstappen is in prime position to win the 2022 F1 Japanese GP.

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#2 Mercedes is in for a bad one

It's hard to understand where Mercedes' competitiveness went. The car was hooked up in the wets on Friday, but the same track layout has the team dropping buckets of time on the straights. Mercedes has struggled on the straights this season, but the amount seen on a track like Suzuka was a surprise.

Looking at the team's sector times, a bigger worry is the amount of time lost on the straights. Unless the car has extraordinarily better tire usage, it will be stuck in traffic and a podium might just be out of reach in a straightforward race.

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#3 Alpine will be P4 coming out of the F1 Japanese GP

Esteban Ocon will start the race in P5 while Fernando Alonso will start the race in P7. Compare that to not only McLaren but Mercedes as well and you'll see a car that might be very competitive this weekend. Most of the lap time that the Alpines made over Mercedes was on the straights.

What was striking, however, was the fact that Mercedes could not get most of it back in the corners. Comparisons with McLaren show the jump that Alpine has had in the midfield. With both Alpine drivers starting ahead of Lando Norris, expect the French team to snatch P4 in the championship away from McLaren by the end of the weekend.

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#4 A top-8 result for Sebastian Vettel

That lap from Sebastian Vettel which helped him secure a slot in Q3 was magical. The German was on the limit, almost perfect, and most importantly 'elite' in the way he executed everything. It almost makes you wonder why he's leaving the sport when he has so much to give.

The German will be starting the race in the top 10. The Aston Martin is not the fastest car around Suzuka but it can hold its own in the race. Expect Vettel to make the most of this quality of the car and make up positions in the race. We're predicting a top 8 finish for Sebastian Vettel in his last F1 Japanese GP.

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#5 We're going to see much more action on track

Irrespective of whether the track stays dry or if it is wet, tire degradation is going to be a very important component of the race. Suzuka can be very extreme when it comes to tires and a two-stop strategy (if it stays dry) might be the order of the day.

What this also does is it opens up avenues for some more on-track action. With the new regulations, the cars can follow each other closer. This should help them slingshot other cars better through the spoon section to the straight. To add to this, the main straight becomes more potent when it comes to pulling off overtakes. Overall, as compared to the 2019 edition, the 2022 edition of the Japanese GP is expected to have much more action.